|
Ⅰ. 현 경제상황에 대한 인식
| □ | 금년 들어 국제금융위기로 인한 경기 급락세가 다소 완화되는 모습을 보였던 우리 경제는 2/4분기 이후 예상보다 빠른 회복세를 나타내고 있음. |
- 계절조정 전기대비 기준으로 2/4분기에 2.6%(연율 11.0%)의 성장률을 나타내었던 우리 경제는 3/4분기에 더욱 높은 2.9%(연율 12.3%)의 성장률을 기록
| □ | 최근의 경기 회복세는, 작년 10월 이후 국제금융위기로 인한 수출의 급격한 위축이 빠르게 완화되고 있는 데 주로 기인 |
- 중국을 비롯한 주요 교역대상국의 수요가 개선되면서, 우리 경제의 수출 감소세가 4월 이후 개선되는 모습을 지속
| □ | 교역조건이 개선됨에 따라 경제주체들의 실질구매력(GDI)이 강화됨과 동시에 원화가치와 자산가격이 회복세를 나타내었던 것도 내수 위축을 완화시키면서 경기를 빠르게 개선시키고 있는 요인으로 작용 |
- 교역조건의 개선으로 국내총소득(GDI)이 GDP 성장률을 크게 상회하는 정도로 증가하는 등 경제주체들의 실질구매력이 강화됨에 따라 민간소비 등 내수 경기가 개선될 수 있는 여건이 조성
- 국내외 금융시장 안정 및 경상수지 흑자 지속으로 원화가치가 회복(환율 하락)되고 저금리 기조가 유지되면서 기업 투자 여건이 개선된 가운데, 주택가격 및 주가 등 자산가격 회복세도 내수의 위축을 완화시키는 데에 기여
- 이와 더불어 2/4분기 이후의 기업 수익성 호전 및 원화가치 회복에 따른 자본재 ․기계류 수입비용 감소 등으로 설비투자가 빠른 회복세를 나타내고 있음.
- 작년 하반기 이후 큰 폭으로 확대된 재정지출이 확장적 통화정책과 병행되면서, 거시경제에 대한 재정정책의 파급효과가 예상보다 크고 신속하게 나타나고 있는 것도 내수 회복세를 강화시키는 추가적인 요인으로 작용
| □ | 수출과 내수에서 나타나고 있는 전반적인 수요의 증가는 생산의 견실한 개선과 고용 부진의 완화로 이어지고 있는데, 이와 같은 우리 경제의 회복세는 당분간 지속될 것으로 전망됨. |
- 기업들의 재고 조정이 마무리됨에 따라 대내외 수요 증가가 견실한 생산 증가세로 이어지고 있는데, 이러한 생산 회복세는 내년에도 지속될 것으로 보임.
- 노동시장에서도 최근 고용 침체가 점진적으로 완화되는 조짐이 나타나고 있는데, 앞으로 민간부문의 내수 회복세와 더불어 전반적인 고용 개선 추세가 완만하게 유지될 것으로 판단됨.
- 더불어, 세계경제가 개도국을 중심으로 점진적 회복세를 나타낼 것으로 전망되고 있음을 감안할 때, 수출의 개선 추세는 내년에도 지속될 것으로 판단됨.
- 유가 급등 및 국제금융시장 불안 재현, 급격한 신종플루 확산 등 예기치 못한 충격이 발생할 가능성을 완전히 배제하기 어려우나, 전반적인 세계경제, 나아가 국제교역 여건의 개선 추세는 완만하게나마 유지될 수 있을 것으로 예상
- 단, 경기 회복 및 원화가치 상승 등으로 그동안 크게 위축되었던 수입이 상대적으로 빠른 증가세를 나타낼 것으로 예상됨에 따라 경상수지 흑자는 축소될 것으로 보임.
| □ | 이 같은 상황을 종합적으로 감안할 때, 향후 경제정책은 위기국면에서 취해졌던 정책기조를 점진적으로 정상화시키면서 최근의 경기 회복세가 안정적 성장세로 연결될 수 있도록 경제 효율성을 제고하는데 중점을 두고 추진될 필요 |
- 거시경제정책은 단기적인 경기상황의 전개방향을 주시하는 가운데, 경제안정을 저해할 수 있는 부작용들이 확산되지 않도록 정책기조를 점진적으로 정상화하는 노력을 지속
- 거시경제 정책기조의 정상화가 과도하게 지연될 경우 부작용이 확대됨은 물론 이에 대응하기 위한 급격한 정책기조 변경으로 경제에 불필요한 충격이 발생할 가능성을 배제하기 어려움.
- 재정정책의 경우, 재정 확대의 고착화 및 정부부채 급증 등으로 인해 재정 건전성이 훼손되지 않도록 한시적 재정지원 사업들을 계획에 맞추어 정리하는 한편, 비과세․감면을 축소하는 등 세입기반을 확충하는 노력을 지속
- 금융 및 통화정책은, 유동성 증가세가 자산가격 버블과 같은 부작용을 초래하지 않도록 경계하고, 경기 회복세가 물가 상승폭을 확대시키지 않으면서 안정적인 성장으로 이어질 수 있도록 노력
- 장기적인 관점에서는, 성장잠재력 유지를 위해 경제시스템을 효율화하는 정책을 단기적인 경기 변동과 독립적인 차원에서 일관되게 지속적으로 추진
- 위기극복 이후 우리 경제의 지속가능한 성장을 추구하기 위해 필요한 경제 효율성을 제고하는 차원에서, 상시적인 구조조정과 성장잠재력을 확보하기 위한 정책적 노력을 병행하는 것이 바람직
- 특히, 국제금융위기의 충격으로 인해 장기적인 성장잠재력의 약화에 대한 우려가 있으므로, 이에 대응하기 위한 중장기 대책 위주로 경제정책의 중심을 전환하고 G-20 정상회의 등을 통한 정책공조 방안을 모색
- 향후 고령화 등으로 요소투입 증가 위주의 성장에 한계가 있을 것임을 감안하여, 생산요소 활용도 제고와 생산성 향상 등을 통한 질적 성장에 역점을 둘 필요
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Ⅰ. Current Economic Conditions
| □ | Following the moderate slowdown in its declining pace triggered by the global financial crisis, the Korean economy in 2009 has shown a faster-than-expected recovery since the second quarter. |
- On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the Korean economy recorded a growth of 2.9% (annualized 12.3% growth) in the third quarter, higher than 2.6% (annualized 11.0%) in the second quarter.
| □ | The recent pace of economic recovery is mainly driven by fast moderation in rapid contraction of exports triggered by the global financial crisis since October last year. |
- The declining pace of exports has continued to improve since April, as the demands of major trading partners including China have improved.
| □ | As the terms of trade gradually improve, GDI (Gross Domestic Income) has risen and the won value and asset prices showed signs of recovery, which served to accelerate the pace of economic recovery by moderating the contraction in domestic demand. |
- Helped by the improved terms of trade, GDI rose to the level far above GDP growth
rate, which enhanced the real purchasing power of economic agents. As a result, domestic
demand including private consumption improved greatly due to favorable conditions.
- The continued stabilization in the global financial market and the current account
surplus boosted the won's value and the policy stance of low-interest rates enhanced the
conditions for corporate investment. Accordingly, the recovery pace of asset prices,
including house and stock prices, also contributed to moderating the contraction in
domestic demand.
- In addition, equipment investment has shown a rapid recovery supported by the
decrease in import costs of capital goods and machineries, which resulted from the
upward trend in corporate profitability and the recovery in the won's value since the
second quarter.
- Meanwhile, the rapidly increased fiscal expenditures since the second half of last year, combined with the expansionary monetary policy, resulted in larger and faster- than-anticipated effects on the macroeconomy, which served to further boost the recovery phase of domestic demand.
| □ | The overall rise in demand seen in both exports and domestic demand has led to the steady improvement in production and moderation in sluggish employment. Under such conditions, the Korean economy is forecasted to continue its recovery pace in the forseeable future. |
-
With the end of inventory adjustment by companies, the increase in domestic and foreign
demand is projected to lead to a robust rise in production and such a trend may continue
through next year.
- In addition, the labor market has recently shown signs of a moderating slowdown in
employment. Accordingly, employment conditions are projected to maintain a moderate pace
of improvement in coming years, along with the continued recovery in domestic demand in
the private sector.
- Meanwhile, when considering the fact that the global economy is forecasted to
recover with a modest growth mainly led by developing countries, the upward pace of
exports is projected to continue through next year.
- While it is not safe to disregard the possibility of the outbreak of unexpected shocks such as oil price hike, returning disturbance in the global financial market, and the rapid spread of H1/N1 virus, but it is expected that the overall conditions in the global economy and the upward trend of the international terms of trade may be maintained, though moderately.
- On the other hand, current account surplus is expected to shrink since imports, thus far have been sharply contracted due to economic recovery and the rising won's value are expected to grow relatively fast.
| □ | In this regard, the economic policy for the future needs to be implemented with the focus on normalizing the risk management policies in a gradual manner and also on improving the economic efficiency so that economic recovery can lead to a steady growth. |
- For macroeconomic policy, efforts should be put to gradually normalize its stance on
risk management in order to prevent the spread of side effects that might pose as a
threat to economic stability, while paying attention to the short-term progress and
economic conditions.
- When the process of normalization is delayed longer than is necessary, it is highly likely that economy will experience side effects as well as unnecessary impacts caused by sudden changes in policy stance to respond to those effects.
- For fiscal policy, the temporary fiscal measures should be terminated according to the plan so as not to undermine the fiscal soundness by drawn-out fiscal expansion and the rapid rise in government debt. Furthermore, efforts should be continued to expand tax base by lowering tax exemptions and reductions, etc.
- Monetary and financial policies need to be prepared in a way that the short-term liquidity increase should not cause side effects such as a sudden rise in asset prices and that the economic recovery should lead to sustainable growth without spurring inflation.
- In long-term perspective, policies relating to the efficiency of economic system to
improve growth potential need to be implemented with consistency and independently from
short-term stabilization polices in order to minimize economic fluctuations.
- It would be appropriate to make simultaneous efforts to continue restructuring and secure growth potential in order to enhance economic efficiency necessary for sustainable growth of the Korean economy after the recovery.
- In particular, since there are still concerns over the weakening of long-term growth potential due to the global financial crisis, it would be necessary to focus economic policies on medium- and long-term measures as well as stepping up efforts to gain policy cooperation through the G20 Summit.
- Taking into consideration that population aging in the future will limit the growth of factor input, it is necessary to focus on quality by improving the usage efficiency of production factors as well as productivity.
1. Major Assumptions
| □ | The Global Economy: The global economy is projected to recover at a modest pace in 2010 from the downward trend of 2009. |
- Amid the gradual upward trend of developing countries, mainly China, and the economies of advanced countries, including the U.S., showed a turnaround growth. Accordingly, the global economy, once contracted due to the global financial crisis, is now projected to register a 3%-level growth rate in 2010, clearly up from the downward trend in 2009 (- 1.1%, based on the IMF's PPP exchange rate).
| □ | Oil Prices: The projected oil prices (import unit price) for 2010 is around $80 per barrel on annual average, gradually up from $60 per barrel of 2009, as the global economy recovers. |
| □ | Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): The Korean won is expected to maintain the moderate pace of appreciation from the present level. |
- As the financial markets stabilize and economic conditions at home and abroad recover, the value of the won (based on REER) is recovering gradually, but its appreciation pace in 2010 is projected to be slightly slower.
| □ | Korea's GDP growth rate is projected to record in the 5% range in 2010. |
- On year-on-year basis, the growth rate for the first half is likely to be higher than
that for the second half because of the base effect brought by the rapid drop in the
first half of the previous year, but on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the growth rates for
the first half and second half are projected to remain
similar.
- Private consumption is expected to register around a 5%-level recovery in 2010,
influenced by the overall improvement in economic conditions particularly centering on
foreign exchange, income, and employment conditions.
- Equipment investment is projected to improve significantly with a growth rate of
higher than 10%, boosted by the rapid rise in investment demand owing to the recovery of
the global economy and foreign exchange stabilization.
- Construction investment is forecasted to record a growth rate similar to the
previous year, while the investment in SOC projects for the public sector appears to be
maintained and the sluggish performance of construction investment in the private sector
seems to moderate gradually.
- The goods export (in volume terms) in 2010 is forecasted to register around 8%
growth due to the recent rise in global demands, such as the rising trading volume,
brought by the gradual recovery of the global economy.
- The goods import (in volume terms) in 2010 is expected to register around 11% growth due to the rise in import demand caused by the burgeoning recovery of the domestic economy.
| □ | Current account is expected to record a surplus of around $16 billion, down from the $40-billion level of the present year, while both exports and imports of goods are expected to rise thanks to the recovery of economic conditions at home and abroad and the rise in oil and law material prices. |
- Goods account surplus is expected to record around $33 billion, a fall from 2009
($53billion).
- Accounts of service·income·transfers are projected to record a deficit of around $17 billion, a slight increase from 2009 ($12 billion) as travel account deficit is expected to rise due to the fall in the foreign exchange rate.
Economic Forecast for 2009~10
| 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
| 1/4p | 2/4p | 3/4p | 4/4 | Yearly | 1st half | 2nd half | Yearly | |
|
GDP
|
-4.2
|
-2.2 |
0.6 |
6.3 |
0.2 |
6.9 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
|
Current Account
|
86 |
132 |
105 |
93
|
415 |
65
|
97
|
162
|
|
Service·Income· |
2 |
-45 |
-44 |
-32 |
-118 |
-101 |
-72 |
- 173 |
|
CPI Inflation
|
3.9
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.8
|
2.6 |
2.7
|
2.7 (2.4) |
|
Unemployment Rate |
3.8
|
3.8
|
3.6 |
3.3
|
3.7 |
3.5
|
3.3 |
3.4 |
Note: 1) p denotes preliminary estimates.
2) The year-on-year growth rate of GDP for the 1st and 2nd half of 2010 are the average of
the quarter-on-quarter growth rates of the given two quarters.
| □ | The unemployment rate for 2010 is forecasted to decrease gradually to register around 3.4% on annual average, along with economic recovery. |
| □ | Headline CPI inflation for 2010 is forecasted to record in the high 2% range, a similar level to the present year, due to the combined impact of the rising import prices, falling REER, and increasing pressure of aggregate demand. |
- The core inflation is expected to record a growth rate of around 2.4% in 2010, lower
than the growth rate of headline inflation.
1. Fiscal Policy
| □ | The government's aggressive fiscal policy at present is considered to significantly contribute to the recovery, but in the future, it is necessary to pay a keen attention to the recovery phase and then control the magnitude of the fiscal management. |
- Considering the recent phase of economic recovery, it is likely that the growth rate of the total imports for the next year will turn out higher than expected. Accordingly, it would be appropriate to put extra efforts in reducing fiscal deficit while enhancing fiscal soundness by managing the total imports in more aggressive manner.
| □ | In a mid- and long-term perspective, it would be desirable to exert continuous efforts to establish a stable fiscal foundation. |
- By reviewing a fiscal project on a zero-based budget, projects that are neither
essential nor urgent should be terminated, and also by improving the performance
evaluation and feedback systems, the fiscal programs should be streamlined consistently
to effectively adjust tax expenditures.
- On the tax revenue side, it is necessary to expand the tax base by diminishing tax redemption and reduction, tax deduction, and non-refundable tax credit, while at the same time expand the tax revenue base by enhancing the accuracy of reporting income through consistent improvement in tax administration.
| □ | The monetary policy for the future needs to be set to gradually normalize its stance of low interest rates, considering the economic conditions at home and abroad starting next year and the side effects that might occur when the current expansionary policy stance remain as is for a long period. |
-
The commodity price appears to move in a relatively stable manner, despite the overall
recovery pace, but the price is highly likely to take on a gradual upward trend in the
future.
- Considering that the aggregate demand pressure is likely to turn to a plus influenced by a continued recovery pace, such a low inflation rate at present is not likely to continue through next year.
- In order for monetary policies to produce visible outcomes, a certain period of time lag is inevitable. Also, in order to minimize shocks brought by sudden policy changes, the current expansionary stance needs to be normalized gradually.
| □ | It is necessary to continue efforts to enhance the soundness of mortgage loans in order to support a stable debt restructuring of households as well as to enhance their risk management capability. |
- Recent decisions by the financial authority to strengthen the monitoring process and
DTI regulations for mortgage loans is considered appropriate, given the fact that the
rapidly growing mortgage loans raise concerns over insolvency risks of household loans.
- As for households, it would be appropriate to assist them in improving their ability to manage debts by making the repayment capacity of households as the main basis for the loan process of financial institutions.
| □ | As for corporations, in order to reconfirm the government's intention to carry out restructuring and also to minimize corporate moral hazard it is necessary to clearly state the goals and schedule of the normalization of emergency guarantee support to credit guarantee agencies. |
- In particular, with the deadline of those emergency support programs approaching, it
would be appropriate to present specific schedules and goals to normalize the credit
guarantee policies so that the possible side effects and uncertainties in the SME
financial markets, caused by the prolonged measures, would be minimized.
- Efforts are needed to clearly redefine the government's intention in normalizing the overall corporate financial policies by firmly stating post-action measures for the delayed Fast Track Method (a special support program for companies with liquidity problems), which the deadline was extended to the end of this year.
| □ | Meanwhile, concerning the rise in short-term foreign debt of financial institutions, it would be more desirable to implement policies that provide incentives for structural improvement in domestic demand for foreign currency, rather than direct regulations on overseas borrowing. |
-
Given that the short-term overseas borrowing by financial institutions is one of the
important solutions to meet domestic demand on foreign currency, it is difficult to
place a limit on the short-term overseas borrowing alone.
- In this regard, there is an urgent need to provide indirect regulations that could
bring about structural improvement in demand for foreign currency. Simultaneous efforts
should be placed on securing alternative foreign currency supply.
- In addition, consistent efforts are also needed to reduce the proportion of short- term borrowings through upgrading the supervisory standards on foreign liquidity and at the same time to improve the foreign currency-related risk management ability of financial institutions.
| □ | It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of various employment measures which have been adopted since the global financial crisis, and based on these evaluations prepare follow-up measures as well as improvement measures for long-term employment stability. |
- Relating to the subsidy on maintaining employment, it would be appropriate to normalize
the support amount which has been extended and application qualifications which have
been alleviated as emergency response. Moreover, there is a need for improvement in the
same program so that the productivity of both workers and companies can be further
enhanced.
- For projects to create jobs in the public sector, it would be appropriate to reduce
the number of public service employment projects with low efficiency. For workers who
might suffer from livelihood difficulties after the end of temporary projects, it is
necessary to direct these workers into the existing welfare projects.
- A number of various subsidies to encourage company start-ups or protect
disadvantaged groups need to be readjusted based on their performance assessment,
followed by new improvement measures to enhance their effectiveness and efficiency.
- Meanwhile, as for the expansion in fiscal expenditure, it would be appropriate to readjust the expenditure and investment proportions by sectors, based on a balanced assessment of the project efficiency and its effect on job creation.
| □ | In addition, policy efforts are needed to improve employment conditions of those workers that most suffered from the employment shock including temporary and daily workers, small self-employed workers, and female workers. |
- A medium- to long-term protective system should be provided so that the current social
safety net can reach wage workers including temporary and daily workers, who were
seriously hit by the recent crisis.
- As for small-scale, self-employed workers, who were seriously hit by the contraction
in domestic demand, it would be appropriate to implement measures that would improve
their productivity or help them to pursue a different career path.
- The fall in the number of the employed, mainly among female workers, indicates that women are still vulnerable to employment conditions despite the gradual rise in the women's labor force participation rate. A consistent efforts are needed to improve such conditions.
| □ | On the other hand, the poor conditions of the youth labor market arise from the discrepancy between quality and quantity of supply and demand of new graduates entering the job market. Therefore, fundamental measures should be sought taking into account both the demand and supply sides in the labor market. |
제 1 부 국내외 경제동향
Ⅰ. 국내경제 동향
1. 국내총생산
2. 경 기
3. 소 비
4. 설비투자
5. 건설투자
6. 수출입 및 국제수지
7. 노동시장
8. 물 가
9. 금융시장
10. 재 정
Ⅱ. 세계경제 동향
1. 요 약
2. 주요 국가별 경제상황
3. 환율 및 금리
4. 원자재와 반도체 가격
제 2 부 경제전망 및 정책방향
Ⅰ. 현 경제상황에 대한 인식
Ⅱ. 2009~10년 국내경제 전망
1. 대외 여건에 대한 주요전제
2. 2010년 국내경제 전망
3. 전망의 불확실성
Ⅲ. 정책방향
1. 재정정책
2. 통화정책
3. 금융정책
4. 노동시장정책
제 3 부 경제현안 분석
최근 설비투자 회복세에 대한 평가 및 전망
최근 물가에 대한 분석 및 향후 전망
여성 중심의 고용 부진 현상에 대한 분석
Ⅰ. 국내경제 동향
1. 국내총생산
2. 경 기
3. 소 비
4. 설비투자
5. 건설투자
6. 수출입 및 국제수지
7. 노동시장
8. 물 가
9. 금융시장
10. 재 정
Ⅱ. 세계경제 동향
1. 요 약
2. 주요 국가별 경제상황
3. 환율 및 금리
4. 원자재와 반도체 가격
제 2 부 경제전망 및 정책방향
Ⅰ. 현 경제상황에 대한 인식
Ⅱ. 2009~10년 국내경제 전망
1. 대외 여건에 대한 주요전제
2. 2010년 국내경제 전망
3. 전망의 불확실성
Ⅲ. 정책방향
1. 재정정책
2. 통화정책
3. 금융정책
4. 노동시장정책
제 3 부 경제현안 분석
최근 설비투자 회복세에 대한 평가 및 전망
최근 물가에 대한 분석 및 향후 전망
여성 중심의 고용 부진 현상에 대한 분석
목차별 원문보기
요약
국내경제 동향
세계경제 동향 및 전망
현 경제상황에 대한 인식
2009~10년 국내경제 전망
정책방향
(현안분석) 최근 설비투자 회복세에 대한 평가 및 전망
자세히보기(현안분석) 최근 물가에 대한 분석 및 향후 전망
자세히보기(현안분석) 여성 중심의 고용 부진 현상에 대한 분석
자세히보기
경제 현안 분석
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