| □ | 우리 경제는 2013년에 2.6%의 성장률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 수출과 내수 모두 증가세가 확대되며 3.6%의 성장률을 기록할 전망 |
- 우리 경제는 2013년에 완만한 개선 추세를 보이면서 비교적 낮은 2.6%의 성장률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 세계경제가 점차 회복되면서 수출 증가세가 확대되고 내수도 개선 추세가 지속되면서 3.6%의 성장률을 기록할 전망
- 소비자물가는 유가 하락 등으로 2013년에 1.8%의 낮은 상승률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 물가상승세가 점차 확대되며 2.6%의 상승률을 기록할 것으로 전망
- 경상수지는 내수의 점진적인 개선과 원화가치 상승 등으로 흑자폭이 점차 감소하면서 2013년에 397억달러, 2014년에 307억달러 내외의 흑자를 기록할 전망
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| □ | Korean economy appears to be slightly improving from slowdown, though the overall pace remains modest. |
- Korea’s growth rate dropped sharply last year due to weaker demand at home and abroad resulting from the stalling growth of the global economy, but starting this year the contraction in investment has been moderated and exports continued the upward trend, implying a modest improvement.
- Korea’s growth rate for the first quarter registered 1.5%, the same as the previous quarter, and 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis.
| □ | Amid moderating contraction in investment, exports showed a modest improvement. |
- Private consumption showed a slightly lower growth rate of late, but is expected to improve at a modest pace influenced by improving real purchasing power.
- Equipment investment subsided due to the base effect, whereas construction investment improved with both building construction and civil works turning to rise.
- Exports, mainly to China, have maintained a modest improvement, whereas those to the euro area declined due to its economic recession.
| □ | The number of employed has grown at a lower rate, the wage growth rate remained relatively stable, and headline CPI continued its low level of inflation. |
- The number of employed recorded a fall in its rise due to the decline in the number of non-wage workers, temporary and daily workers.
- Headline CPI continued its low level of inflation, as the inflation rate of services remained at a low level and that of goods slowed down due to the fall in import prices.
| □ | Financial market remained stable with overall foreign exchange soundness being maintained at a stable level despite continued decline in the KRW/JPY exchange rate. |
- The KRW/JPY exchange rate fell at a relatively fast pace and stock market volatility increased slightly, but the fall in Korea's short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves implies foreign exchange soundness being maintained at a stable level.
- Household debts have risen at a slower rate, although the delinquency rate remained relatively high.
| □ | The global economy is expected to recover at a slightly modest pace influenced by US and China showing weakness in some economic indicators, but is projected to strengthen starting 2014. |
- The US economy is expected to improve at a slightly modest pace and the euro area is forecast to experience continued slowdown, whereas Japan is projected to grow at a higher rate thanks to its expansionary macroeconomic policy.
- Emerging market economies including China have maintained the pace of recovery, but some real economic indicators such as consumption and exports pointed to partial slowdown.
- Major forecasting institutions slashed their forecasts for the 2013 global growth and assessed that risks remain persistent including the euro area crisis and the fiscal policy uncertainty in US.
| □ | Korean economy is expected to improve at a relatively modest pace in both domestic demand and exports. |
- With domestic demand on a gradual recovery trend driven by the increase in real purchasing power, investment is forecast to improve due to falling import prices.
- Exports are expected to recover at a modest pace as the global economy grows stronger. - With continued economic slowdown in the euro area brought by fiscal tightening, heightening uncertainties over implementation of fiscal tightening could pose a threat to the global economy.
- As for domestic risk factors, when the recovery of real estate market is delayed and corporate profits are deteriorated considerably due to the yen’s depreciation, the recovery trend of Korea’s domestic demand could be derailed.
| □ | Macroeconomic policy needs to maintain the stance of counter-cyclical response for a while and to strengthen growth potential by improving productivity of vulnerable sectors over the medium term. |
- Committing to early budget implementation, fiscal policy should focus on maximizing expenditure efficiency by achieving improved efficiency of the system that delivers financial resources.
- Given that inflationary pressure is not expected to be high for some a while, monetary policy should maintain an easing stance and needs to be operated in a flexible manner according to changes in inflation trend and economic conditions.
- Policy efforts are needed to enhance the long- and medium-term growth potential by increasing productivity of vulnerable sectors, while minimizing policy uncertainty.
- Continued policy efforts are needed to formulate an economic system which enables a virtuous cycle of stronger growth potential and more jobs, while, at the same time, expanding social security nets so as to minimize social anxiety of the vulnerable.
1. Major Assumptions
| □ | The global economy in 2013 is projected to show a modest improvement, while a higher growth is expected for 2014. |
| □ | Oil prices (Dubai) are projected to be around $104 per barrel on an annual average basis in 2013 and a continued downward trend around $100 per barrel is expected for 2014. |
| □ | Korean won (REER) is projected to appreciate gradually by around 5~6% on an annual average in 2013~14 influenced by the depreciation of the yen. |
2. Major Forecasts for 2013~14
| □ | Korea's GDP growth rate is projected to record 2.6% in 2013 and then to rise to 3.6% in 2014 as both exports and domestic demand rise at a faster pace. |
- Korea is expected to show a modest improvement in 2013 compared to the slowdown of the previous year, but starting 2014 higher growth in exports and continued improvement in domestic demand are expected with the global economyrecovering gradually.
- Private consumption is expected to register a 2.3% growth rate in 2013 due to asset prices falling slower amid improving real purchasing power and a 3.4% growth rate in 2014 influenced by overall improvement in economic conditions.
- Equipment investment is projected to recover gradually at an annual growth rate of 2.8% starting the second half of 2013 and a mid-8% range in 2014 influenced by the increase in internal and external demands.
- Construction investment is expected to register a growth rate of around 2~3% in 2013~14 as the contraction since the financial crisis has eased.
- The goods export (in terms of volume) is forecast to register a growth rate of 6.4% in 2013 with a moderate improvement in external demand and then 8.4% in 2014 with the recovery momentum growing stronger.
- The goods import (in terms of volume) is expected to register growth rates of 5.1% and 7.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, supported by the modest pace of improvement in domestic demand and exports.
| □ | The current account surplus is expected to decrease slowly to around $39.7 billion in 2013 and $30.7 billion in 2014 driven by gradually improving domestic demand and the appreciation of the won. |
- Goods account balance is forecast to register a surplus of around $43.0 billion in 2013 and a smaller surplus of around $36.8 billion in 20134.
- Balances of services, primary and secondary income accounts are forecast to record a deficit of around $3.3 billion in 2013 mainly due to the increased deficit of travel account balance resulting from the appreciation of the won and an increased deficit around of $6.1 billion in 2014.
| □ | Headline CPI is expected to rise by a low rate of 1.8% in 2013 due to falling oil prices and then to rise 2.6% in 2014 with a gradual increase in inflation. |
- Core inflation is expected to record a low rate of 1.7% in 2013 and then to rise to 2.4% in 2014, reflecting the momentum of economic recovery.
| □ | The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a low level of 3.3% in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014. |
- The number of employed in the period between 2013 and 2014 is expected to continue a stable growth of about 300,000 on an annual average basis, though slightly lower than the previous year (437,000).
Ⅲ. Policy Recommendations
1. Fiscal Policy
| □ | Maintaining an expansionary fiscal stance for the time being, fiscal policy needs to modify priorities of national agendas with a medium-term perspective taking into account detailed plans to gather financial resources. |
- While committing to early budget implementation, fiscal policy for some time should focus on maximizing expenditure efficiency by checking the system of financial resource delivery involving job creation and supports for the vulnerable.
- Implementation of national agendas requiring fiscal spending should be based on the premise of having adequate financial resources through tax revenue expansion and fiscal expenditure restructuring so that fiscal sustainability would be secured.
- To expand tax revenues, it is necessary to improve the rate of income reporting by strengthening tax administration while broadening tax base by reducing tax exemption and reduction.
- Priorities of national agendas requiring fiscal expenditure must be determined according to the principle of selection and concentration so that any rapid rise in fiscal expenditure could be avoided. While doing this, it is also necessary to implement the restructuring of fiscal expenditure on existing projects.
| □ | Monetary authority needs to put in efforts to secure the confidence of economic agents. |
- Given that the inflationary pressure caused by cut in interest rates is not expected to be high for some time to come, monetary policy needs to be operated in a flexible manner according to changes in inflation trend and economic conditions, while maintaining an easing stance.
- While better clarifying priorities of monetary policy goals, efforts need to be made to secure the confidence of economic agents through predictable monetary policy measures.
| □ | National Happiness Fund’s comprehensive debt restructuring program needs to be limited to a one-time use and the Fund should be developed in connection with credit education and job creation projects so as to encourage the self-reliance of long-term debtors. |
- It is necessary that public assistance for insolvent debtors is provided on a one-time basis considering market discipline and that debt restructuring is carried out through a thorough verification process of a debtor’s repayment capability.
- To help long-term debtors to restore their credit and develop economic self-reliance, it is necessary to reinforce credit education and consultation programs and to support them with stable income in connection with job creation projects.
| □ | While monitoring the movement of international short-term capital flows driven by expansionary monetary policy, macro-prudential supervision needs to be strengthened further when financial market is deemed as unstable. |
- Closer examination is necessary for the possibility that international short-term capital flows brought by global liquidity expansion may cause increased volatility in the financial market.
- When international short-term capital flows fluctuate significantly and therefore financial market becomes unstable, the intensity of macro-prudential supervision needs to be heightened.
| □ | Strengthened policy supports are needed to promote stable employment of the middle-aged and elderly and to relieve the burden of employers so that the Act on Extension of Retirement Age could be settled properly. |
- To invigorate the system for wage-setting coordination, it is necessary to make an active use of consultation services and employment subsidies suggested in the Act.
| □ | Overall employment conditions faced by the youth need to be improved through more policy supports differentiated according to their education level. |
- Substantial youth internship programs could help the highly educated youth shorten the period of transition to employment, while the less educated youth could be provided with supports for early employment through programs designed for ‘Work First, Study Second.’
요 약
제 1 부 경제전망 및 정책방향
Ⅰ. 현 경제상황에 대한 인식
Ⅱ. 2013~14년 국내경제 전망
Ⅲ. 정책방향
제 2 부 경제현안 분석
Ⅰ. 중산층 현황에 대한 다면적 분석과 중산층 확대전략에의 시사점
Ⅱ. 최근 기업의 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달 분석
Ⅲ. 최근의 민간소비 부진에 대한 원인 분석
제 3 부 국내외 경제동향
Ⅰ. 국내경제 동향
Ⅱ. 세계경제 동향
제 1 부 경제전망 및 정책방향
Ⅰ. 현 경제상황에 대한 인식
Ⅱ. 2013~14년 국내경제 전망
Ⅲ. 정책방향
제 2 부 경제현안 분석
Ⅰ. 중산층 현황에 대한 다면적 분석과 중산층 확대전략에의 시사점
Ⅱ. 최근 기업의 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달 분석
Ⅲ. 최근의 민간소비 부진에 대한 원인 분석
제 3 부 국내외 경제동향
Ⅰ. 국내경제 동향
Ⅱ. 세계경제 동향
목차별 원문보기
요약
현 경제상황에 대한 인식
2013~14년 국내경제 전망
정책방향
중산층 현황에 대한 다면적 분석과 중산층 확대전략에의 시사점
자세히보기최근 기업의 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달 분석
자세히보기최근의 민간소비 부진에 대한 원인 분석
자세히보기국내경제 동향
세계경제 동향
경제 현안 분석
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중산층 현황에 대한 다면적 분석과 중산층 확대전략에의 시사점■ 새 정부는 중산층의 약화가 국민이 체감하는 행복에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있다는 인식 아래 ‘중산층 복원’을 핵심적 정책목표로 제시 ■ 중산층을 어떻게 인지하는지에 따라 경제상황에 대한 인식이나 개선책에 큰 차이가 나기 때문에, 정책의 목표와 수단을 일치시키기 위해서는 ‘중산층의 몰락’ 이라는 진단이 어떤 측면에서 뒷받침되고, 이 중 해결해야 할 문제점이 무엇인지를 파악할 필요
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최근의 민간소비 부진에 대한 원인 분석
■ 최근 민간소비의 부진이 지속되면서 그 원인과 향후 회복 여부에 대한 관심이 증대 ■ 본고는 소득 및 자산 효과와 불확실성이 민간소비에 미친 영향을 실증분석하여 최근 민간소비의 부진에 대한 원인을 진단하고자 함.
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최근 기업의 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달 분석
■ 최근 기업의 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달이 비교적 큰 폭으로 감소하면서, 기업 전반에 걸친 신용위축에 대한 우려가 제기 ■ 본고는 간접금융시장을 통한 자금조달 감소의 원인을 수요 및 공급 측면에서 살펴보고, 이를 통해 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 함.
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