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KDI Economic Outlook 2019-2nd Half
Evaluation and Implications of the Recent Disinflation

November 13, 2019

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KDI Report VOD
■ It is difficult to conclude that Korea is in a state of deflation as there is little possibility that the recent downward trend will continue. This is because September’s price drops were largely spurred by temporary supply shocks, and core inflation has stalled at the mid-0% range.

■ Along with short-term fluctuations such as supply shocks and economic contractions, the mid- to long-term inflation rate continues to fall while that for the January-September period remained significantly below the target.

■ The current monetary policy management system, of which an explicit goal is financial stability, presents limitations in countering disinflation with a cut in the base rate. Thus, improvements are needed to place more emphasis on the initial task―stabilizing inflation.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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