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KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2018. 9

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KDI Brief No.147 (September 12, 2018)

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KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2018. 9
There is continued growth in exports despite a decline in employment on weaker domestic demand led by sluggish investment, implying that a rapid economic downturn is highly unlikely.
 
 
As investment-related indicators remained weak, consumption-related indicators improved slightly, although still too faint to boost domestic demand.
- The continued huge declines in facilities and construction investment are weakening the growth in domestic demand.
-  Retail sales rebounded partially owing to the cut in the special excise tax but consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, indicating that downward pressure remains,  weighing on consumption momentum.
 
Employment remains sluggish influenced by such domestic demand conditions.
- However, the drop in July’s employment growth was too steep to be simply understood as a consequence of demographic changes and economic conditions.
 
Meanwhile, export growth sustained relatively robust levels, even when certain leading items such as semiconductors are excluded, implying that overall economic activities including production are unlikely to slow down at a fast pace.
Major Economic Indicators
(Year-on-Year % Change)
2016 2017 2017 2018
6 7 8

   Exports (f.o.b.)

-5.9

15.8

24.0

8.4

9.9

3.2

-0.3

6.2

8.7

   Imports (c.i.f.)

-6.9

17.8

17.9

11.6

13.7

12.8

10.9

16.4

9.2

   Balance of Trade
   (Billion US Dollars)

89.2

95.2

30.2

20.1

12.8

18.8

6.1

7.0

7.0

   Consumer Price

1.0

1.9

2.3

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

   3-year Treasury Bonds

1.64

2.13

1.89

2.13

2.22

2.12

2.12

2.12

1.92

   KOSPI

2,026

2,468

2,394

2,468

2,446

2,326

2,326

2,295

2,323

   Won/Dollar Exchange Rate

1,207.7

1,070.5

1,145.4

1,070.5

1,063.5

1,114.5

1,114.5

1,118.7

1,112.9

   Oil Prices
   (Dubai, US$/Barrel)

41.4

53.2

50.5

59.3

63.9

72.1

73.6

73.1

72.5

※ This summary and assessment is a part of 『KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2018. 9』. Please visit the KDI Monthly Economic Trends page and see more graphs.
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