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Policy Study
A Welfare Analysis of Sustainable Pension Reforms

December 31, 2016

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Policy Study
A Welfare Analysis of Sustainable Pension Reforms

December 31, 2016

PDF
This paper employs a Life-Cycle Overlapping Generations Model to quantify the welfare impacts of plans to postpone the depletion of the National Pension Fund. In order for the model to fully incorporate the rapidly changing demographic structure of Korea, we build and calibrate a model in transition directly. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy and the effects of plans to change the National Pension System. According to the model simulation, to postpone the depletion of the National Pension Fund for 30 years, the premium rate must be increased to 18.3% from the current rate of 9%. By postponing the depletion of the fund reserve, young and future generations gain significantly at the expense of the old generations. The simulation results should be, however, interpreted that the current system is unjustifiably partial to the old generations. Moreover, given the current premium rate, it is desirable to strengthen the income redistributing function of the National Pension System.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

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