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Working Paper
What the Estimates of the Balance of Foreign Exchange of North Koreans Would Tell Us

July 24, 2020

  • Author Hyoungsoo Zang
  • Language English
PDF
Working Paper
What the Estimates of the Balance of Foreign Exchange of North Koreans Would Tell Us

July 24, 2020

  • Author Hyoungsoo Zang
  • Language English
PDF
    Ⅰ. Introduction

    Ⅱ. Why Do We Talk About the BFE of North Koreans and Not the Balance of Payments of North Korea?

    Ⅲ. Major Items Estimated to Approximate BFE of North Koreans

    Ⅳ. Summary of What the Previous Estimates on North Korea’s BFE (1991–2012) Tell Us

    Ⅴ. Recent Estimates on the BFE of North Koreans (2013–2018) and the Implications

    Ⅵ. Estimates on North Korean’s Foreign Exchange Holdings at End-2018

    Ⅶ. Suggestions for Estimating North Korea’s Foreign Exchange Held Unofficially by Individual North Koreans

    Ⅷ. Outlook for North Korea’s Policy Responses
We first introduce and summarize preceding research on the balance of foreign exchange (BFE) of North Koreans (1991–2017) based on the method used by Zang (2009, 2013) and Zang and Kim (2019). Then, we present new estimates for the BFE of North Koreans in 2018 (including North Korea’s earnings from cyberattacks). Combining all of the results, we present a new estimate of the current foreign exchange holdings of North Koreans at end-2018. We also discuss how to estimate the foreign exchange holdings of North Koreans in the unofficial sector. Finally, we could present some guidelines to understand the responses from the North Korean authorities on international sanctions as well as North Korea-US dialogues.
 
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The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

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  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

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    Research Associate

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  • CHUN, Eunkyung

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