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  • Economic Bulletin, November 2019
  • Date November 28, 2019
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports 
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     Framework measures to deal with demographic challenges

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     Korea’s external debt amounts to US $458.2 billion, soundness indicators stable
     2019 ASEAN-Republic of Korea Commemorative Summit held in Korea
     Korea holds G20 Global Financial Stability Conference 2019
     Korea’s CDS premium hits the lowest since 2008
     RCEP member countries reach provisional deal

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Manufacturing and facilities investment improved in September, while services, consumption and construction investment slowed down.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent from the previous month in September as services output declined (down 1.2%, m-o-m and up 1.0%, y-o-y). Mining and manufacturing improved (up 2.0%, m-o-m and up 0.4%, y-o-y).

Retail sales (down 2.2%, m-o-m and up 3.3%, y-o-y) and construction investment (down 2.7%, m-o-m and down 7.4%, y-o-y) went down in September. Facility investment continued to increase (up 2.9%, m-o-m and down 1.6%, y-o-y).

Exports declined 14.7 percent year-on-year in October, slowing down for a 11th consecutive month, as global demand remained weak and semiconductor markets had not picked up.

Consumer confidence continued to rise in October, up 1.7 points to 98.6. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 1 point to 72, the outlook for November going down 1 point to 72.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index stayed unchanged in September at 99.5, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points to 98.5.

The economy added 419,000 jobs year-on-year in October backed by the service sector. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 3.0 percent.

Consumer prices remained flat in October compared with a year ago. Petroleum product prices and fresh food prices continued to fall. Core inflation rose 0.8 percent.

KOSPI rose, the won strengthened and Korea treasury yields increased in October.

Both the housing prices (up 0.01% → up 0.12%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lumpsum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (down 0.03% → up 0.09%, m-o-m) rose in October.

Although the economy has been growing steadily, exports and investment remain weak amid slowing global demand, including the weak semiconductor market.

Uncertainties linger as the global economy is “experiencing a synchronized slowdown” and the US-China trade conflicts continue.

The government will strengthen its risk management and work to implement fiscal measures as planned, such as budget spending, policy-based financing and trade financing. The 2020 economic policies will contain plans to promote the private sector in order to help the economy gain momentum.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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