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  • Economic Bulletin, September 2020
  • Date September 25, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     2021 budget proposal

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     Government’s foreign bonds issued successfully in dollars and euros
     Government releases long-term fiscal outlooks to 2060
     National Assembly approves 4th extra budget
     GDP falls 2.7% in Q2 2020
     Korean FDI posts US $12.14 billion for Q2 2020
     Korea to launch Korean New Deal Fund

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Manufacturing and service output continued to improve in July, completed construction works picking up. Retail sales and facilities investment went down.

Industrial production rose 0.1 percent from the previous month in July. Mining and manufacturing improved (up 1.6%, m-o-m and down 2.5%, y-o-y), as well as service output (up 0.3%, m-o-m and down 1.3%, y-o-y). Industrial production fell 1.6 percent year on year.

Retail sales (down 6.0%, m-o-m and up 0.5%, y-o-y) and facilities investment (down 2.2%, m-o-m and up 6.7%, y-o-y) dropped in July. Completed construction works (up 1.5%, m-o-m and down 0.6%, y-o-y) picked up.

Exports fell 9.9 percent year-on-year in August, the fall getting steeper from a 7.1 percent drop in the previous month partly due to fewer days worked (1.5 days). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, fell from a year ago (US $1.87 billion (August 2019) → US $1.80 billion (August 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) improved 4.0 points in August to 88.2. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector rose 7 points to 66, and the BSI outlook for September went up 7 points to 68.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for July increased 0.2 points to 97.2, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index improved 0.4 points to 100.3

The economy lost 274,000 jobs year-on-year in August. Job loss slowed from 277,000 of the previous month as service jobs and construction jobs declined at a slower rate. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points from a year ago to 3.1 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.7 percent from a year ago in August. Farm product prices soared due to heavy rains. Core inflation rose 0.8 percent.

KOSPI rose in August on expectations of economic recovery at home and abroad. The won strengthened and Korea treasury yields rose on concerns over rising issuance.

Housing prices rose slowly in August (up 0.61% → up 0.47%, m-o-m), and Jeonse (lumpsum deposits with no monthly payments) prices showed a steeper slope (up 0.32% → up 0.44%, m-o-m).

Although the economy showed signs of recovery as exports and manufacturing improve, the recovery has faltered due to strengthened social distancing amid worries over the resurgence of COVID-19.

Major economies’ indicators have been improving, but at a slow rate as the pandemic lingers.

The government will renew its disease prevention efforts and work to support businesses and households hit by social distancing through emergency assistance programs, including those financed by the 4th extra budget.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

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  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

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  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

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  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

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  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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