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  • Economic Bulletin, July 2020
  • Date July 30, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     Government announces overview of Korean New Deal
     2020 revision seeks to boost demand and expand inclusiveness

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     GDP fell 2.9% in Q2 2020
     Inbound FDI posts US $7.66 billion in H1 2020

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Service output and retail sales rose from the previous month in May. Manufacturing production and completed construction works fell, as well as facilities investment.

Industrial production fell 1.2 percent from the previous month in May. Service output continued to improve (up 2.3%, m-o-m and down 4.0%, y-o-y), and mining and manufacturing production continued to fall (down 6.7%, m-o-m and down 9.6%, y-o-y). Industrial production decreased 5.6 percent year on year.

Retail sales rose in May (up 4.6%, m-o-m and up 1.7%, y-o-y). Facilities investment (down 5.9%, m-o-m and up 3.6%, y-o-y) and completed construction works (down 4.3%, m-o-m and down 5.8%, y-o-y) went down.

Exports fell 10.9 percent year-on-year in June, declining slowly compared with the previous month backed by more days worked (2 days) and recovering global demand. Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, fell (US $2.05 billion (June 2019) → US $1.67 billion (June 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) improved 4.2 points in June to 81.8. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 2 points to 51, and the BSI outlook for July went up 2 point to 51.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for May fell 0.8 points to 96.5, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index dropped 0.3 points to 98.9.

The economy lost 352,000 jobs year-on-year in June, service jobs declining at a slower rate and manufacturing job losses accelerating. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 4.3 percent.

Consumer prices stayed unchanged from a year ago in June, oil prices continuing to fall and meat prices rising. Core inflation rose 0.6 percent.

KOSPI rose in June on expectations of global economic recovery. The won strengthened and Korea treasury yields went up.

Housing prices continued to rise in June (up 0.14% → up 0.41%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.09% → up 0.26%, m-o-m).

The economy has seen employment declining at a slow rate and domestic demand continuing to improve. However exports and industrial production remain weak due to sluggish global demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Volatility in the global financial market has eased and some economic indicators improve as major economies are lifting lockdowns, but there are worries over global recession amid continuing uncertainties surrounding the spread of COVID-19 and conflicts between major economies.

The government will help the economy take advantage of the recent improvement in domestic consumption, and will work to implement as planned the second-half policies, the 3rd extra budget and the Korean New Deal to boost the economy and prepare for a post COVID-19 world.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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