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  • Economic Bulletin, August 2019
  • Date August 27, 2019
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports 
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     2019 supplementary budget passed


    ■ Economic News Briefing
     Korea’s external debt amounts to US $462.1 billion as of H1 2019
     Korea attends 27th RCEP talks

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Mining and manufacturing improved somewhat in June, along with facility investment. Consumption and services slowed down, as well as construction investment.

Industrial production fell 0.7 percent from the previous month in June due to weak services (up 0.3% → down 1.0%, m-o-m). Mining and manufacturing (down 1.3% → up 0.2%, m-o-m) improved somewhat.

Retail sales (up 0.9% → down 1.6%, m-o-m) went down in June, facility investment (down 7.1% → up 0.4%, m-o-m) climbed somewhat, and construction investment (down 0.9% → down 0.4%, m-o-m) remained weak.

Exports declined 11.0 percent year-on-year in July, staying on a downward trajectory for eight months in a row, as the global semiconductor market remained weak and the US-China trade conflicts continued.

Consumer confidence fell 1.6 points to 95.9 in July, and the business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector decreased 2 points to 73, the outlook for August going down 4 points to 71.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index dropped 0.1 points in June to 98.5, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.2 points to 97.9.

The economy added 299,000 jobs year-on-year in July as service jobs continued to grow. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent.

Consumer prices continued to be stable in July, rising 0.6 percent year-on-year, backed by the low prices of fresh food and oil products.

In August KOSPI fell, the won weakened, and Korea treasury yields continued to drop.

Housing prices continued to decline in July (down 0.09%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (down 0.19%, m-o-m). Housing transactions continued to fall.

Although the Korean economy grew steadily in the second quarter of 2019, exports and investment had not picked up. Uncertainties, such as Japan’s trade curbs and deepening trade conflicts between the US and China, have been added to the economy suffering weak global demand, including the semiconductor market.

The government will be fully prepared for external risks, including Japan’s trade curbs, successfully implement the frontloaded spending of the supplementary budget, and work to boost the economy through measures to promote investment, exports and consumption.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

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  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

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  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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