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  • Economic Bulletin, December 2019
  • Date December 30, 2019
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
     9.1 Stock market
     9.2 Exchange rate
     9.3 Bond market
     9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
     11.1 Consumer prices
     11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
     12.1 Housing market
     12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     2020 economic policies

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     Korea grows 2.0% in Q3 2019
     Korea signs CEPA with Indonesia
     Korean foreign direct investment, Q3 2019
     Korea to impose tariff-rate quotas on 77 imports in 2020

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Services and construction investment improved in October, while mining & manufacturing slowed down, as well as facilities investment. Job markets continued to improve in November and consumer prices rose somewhat.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent from the previous month in October as mining & manufacturing declined (down 1.7%, m-o-m and down 2.5%, y-o-y) . Services improved somewhat (up 0.3%, m-o-m and up 0.7%, y-o-y).

Retail sales (down 0.5%, m-o-m and up 2.1%, y-o-y) and facilities investment (down 0.8%, m-o-m and down 4.8%, y-o-y) went down in October. Construction investment increased (up 1.7%, m-o-m and down 4.3%, y-o-y).

Exports declined 14.3 percent year-on-year in November, slowing down for a 12th consecutive month, as global demand remained weak, including the semiconductor market.

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) continued to rise in November, up 2.3 points to 100.9. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 2 points to 74, and the outlook for December went down 1 point to 71.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.1 points to 99.4, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points to 98.7.

The economy added 331,000 jobs year-on-year in November backed by the service sector. The unemployment rate stayed low at 3.1 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent year-on-year in November as the declines in farm product prices and petroleum product prices decelerated. Core inflation rose 0.6 percent.

KOSPI fell in November, as well as Korea treasury yields, after rallying until the middle of the month. The won weakened.

Both the housing prices (up 0.12% → up 0.19%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lumpsum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.09% → up 0.14%, m-o-m) rose in November.

Growth has been slowing down, despite solid consumption and services, as exports and construction investment have not picked up.

Uncertainties linger amid “a synchronized slowdown” in the global economy and concerns about the US-China trade conflicts. Semiconductor markets remain weak and Japan’s export controls continues.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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