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  • Economic Bulletin, April 2020
  • Date April 27, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     Korea grows 1.3% in Q1 2020
     Government proposes second extra budget to finance COVID-19 emergency relief
     Government releases COVID-19 response strategy
     Consolidated fiscal account posts a 12.0 trillion won deficit in 2019
     Government to set up a 40 trillion won fund to help pandemic-hit key industries
     Inbound FDI up 3.2% in Q1 2020


    ■ Statistical Appendices
Indicators showing industrial production and consumption declined in February.

Industrial production fell 3.5 percent from the previous month in February. Mining and manufacturing went down (down 3.8%, m-o-m and up 11.4%, y-o-y), as well as service output (down 3.5%, m-o-m and up 1.2%, y-o-y). Industrial production rose 4.9 percent year on year.

Retail sales (down 6.0%, m-o-m and down 2.3%, y-o-y) and facilities investment (down 4.8%, m-o-m and up 15.6%, y-o-y) went down from the previous month in February, as well as construction investment (down 3.4%, m-o-m and up 5.6%, y-o-y).

Exports, after going up 4.3 percent in the previous month, fell 0.2 percent year-on-year in March due to low prices triggered by falling oil prices, despite more days worked (1.5 days). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, fell (US $2.09 billion (Mar 2019) → US $1.95 billion (Mar 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) plummeted, dropping 18.5 points in March to 78.4. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector fell 9 points to 56, and the BSI outlook for April plunged 15 points to 54.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for February fell 0.7 points to 99.8, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index stayed flat at 100.3.

The economy lost 195,000 jobs year-on-year in March due to the weak service sector. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points from a year ago to 4.2 percent.

Consumer prices rose 1.0 percent year-on-year in March. Fresh food prices rose faster and petroleum product prices grew slower. Core inflation rose 0.7 percent.

KOSPI plunged in March, the won weakening somewhat. Short-term Korea treasury yields declined and the long-term yields rose.

Housing prices continued to rise in March (up 0.34% → up 0.54%, m-o-m), and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices grew at a slower pace (up 0.21% → up 0.19%, m-o-m).

The economy has seen domestic demand declining and employment falling amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Uncertainties have been mounting in global trade, overshadowing the country’s exports.

While the financial market volatility has been easing helped by market stability efforts in many countries, real economies of major countries are contracting and concerns are growing over global recession.

The government will work on the fast implementation of the 150 trillion won relief measures drawn up through the Emergency Economic Council Meeting, and will continue to work on measures to help retain jobs and boost the real economy.
 
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Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

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  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
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Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

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  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

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  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

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  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

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  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

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  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

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