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  • Economic Bulletin, June 2020
  • Date June 26, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     Economic policies, H2 2020

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     GDP fell 1.3% in Q1 2020
     Government opens up its financial big data
     Government proposes 3rd extra budget to support job security and Korean New Deal

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Service output and retail sales improved from the previous month in April, as well as facilities investment. Manufacturing production and completed construction works fell.

Industrial production fell 2.5 percent from the previous month in April. Service output rose somewhat (up 0.5%, m-o-m and down 6.1%, y-o-y), while mining and manufacturing production fell (down 6.0%, m-o-m and down 4.5%, y-o-y). Industrial production decreased 5.0 percent year on year.

Retail sales rose in April (up 5.3%, m-o-m and down 2.2%, y-o-y), as well as facilities investment (up 5.0%, m-o-m and up 1.4%, y-o-y). Completed construction works went down (down 2.4%, m-o-m and down 2.7%, y-o-y).

Exports fell 23.7 percent year-on-year in May due to weak demand and fewer days worked (1.5 days). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, fell (US $1.99 billion (May 2019) → US $1.62 billion (May 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) improved 6.8 points in May to 77.6. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector fell 3 points to 49, and the BSI outlook for June went down 1 point to 49.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for April fell 1.3 points to 97.3, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index dropped 0.5 points to 99.1.

The economy lost 392,000 jobs year-on-year in May, jobs declining at a slower rate compared with the previous month backed by services. The unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points from a year ago to 4.5 percent.

Consumer prices fell 0.3 percent year-on-year in May due to low oil prices. Core inflation rose 0.5 percent.

KOSPI rose in May on expectations of major economies’ reopening. The won weakened amid growing worries over US-China conflicts. Korea treasury yields fell.

Housing prices rose slowly in May (up 0.27% → up 0.14%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.11% → up 0.09%, m-o-m).

The economy has seen domestic demand improving and job losses slowing although there are uncertainties about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Volatility in global financial markets has eased and some indicators improved due to the reopening of major economies, but there are worries over global recession amid lingering uncertainties surrounding the spread of COVID-19 and emerging economies.

The government will implement the Korean New Deal and other measures of the secondhalf economic policies as planned, which focus on economic stimulus to create jobs, boost consumption and promote investment, and will also be fully prepared for the spending of the 3rd supplementary budget on its passage at the National Assembly.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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