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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

NBER 2016.11.18
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Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 percent of aggregate fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estimated on post 2000 data. The increase is attributable mainly to a change in the domestic transmission mechanism as opposed to changes in the world commodity price process as argued in the literature on the financialization of world commodity markets.

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