OECD Economic Outlook, June 2017
After many years of weak recovery, with global growth in 2016 at the lowest rate since 2009, some signs of improvement have begun to appear. Trade and manufacturing output growth have picked up from a very low level, helped by firmer domestic demand growth in Asia and Europe, and private sector confidence has strengthened. But policy uncertainty remains high, trust in government has diminished, wage growth is still weak, inequality persists, and imbalances and vulnerabilities remain in financial markets. Against this background, a modest pick-up in global GDP growth is projected this year to 3½ per cent, with an upturn in trade and investment intensity and improving outcomes in several major commodity producers. Only a small improvement is in prospect for 2018, taking global GDP growth to 3.6%. With modest additional pressures in labour and product markets, inflation is likely to remain subdued in the major economies, provided commodity prices do not strengthen further.