KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 국외연구자료 - 국제무역 - What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models

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What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models

CEPR 2019.08.08
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This paper fi nds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identi cation strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and that product categories catering to low-income consumers experienced larger price declines.

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