KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 국외연구자료 - 최신자료 - Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems

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Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems

BIS 2019.09.18
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We examine several major exchange rate puzzles: the excess volatility of real exchange rates; their excess reaction to the real interest rate differentials; the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) puzzle; the excess persistence of real exchange rates; the exchange rate disconnect puzzle; and the consumption correlation puzzle. We examine the behaviour of real exchange rates among pairs of economies that have rigidly fixed nominal exchange rates, eg countries within the euro area, regions in China and Canada, and Hong Kong SAR vis-?-vis the United States, compared with that among non-euro-area OECD economies. Our results suggest that some of these puzzles are less puzzling under a rigidly fixed exchange rate regime. In particular, real exchange rates appear to have no or little excess volatility; excess reaction of the real exchange rate to real interest rates is less common; there is less disconnect between the real exchange rate and the economic fundamentals; and uncovered interest rate parity appears to hold more frequently in these economies. However, real exchange rates are as persistent in these economies as in the floating rate economies and there appears to be little difference in risk-sharing across countries with fixed versus floating nominal exchange rates. These results may have implications for exchange rate modelling.

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