KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 발간처별 목록 - 국외 경제사회연구원 - IIE - Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

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Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

IIE 2019.08.02
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The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo?mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile―and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability―will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.

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