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Economic Bulletin

Economic Bulletin, November 2019

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  • 저자 KDI 경제정보센터
  • 발행일 2019/11/28
  • 시리즈 번호 Vol.41 No.11
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요약 Manufacturing and facilities investment improved in September, while services, consumption and construction investment slowed down.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent from the previous month in September as services output declined (down 1.2%, m-o-m and up 1.0%, y-o-y). Mining and manufacturing improved (up 2.0%, m-o-m and up 0.4%, y-o-y).

Retail sales (down 2.2%, m-o-m and up 3.3%, y-o-y) and construction investment (down 2.7%, m-o-m and down 7.4%, y-o-y) went down in September. Facility investment continued to increase (up 2.9%, m-o-m and down 1.6%, y-o-y).

Exports declined 14.7 percent year-on-year in October, slowing down for a 11th consecutive month, as global demand remained weak and semiconductor markets had not picked up.

Consumer confidence continued to rise in October, up 1.7 points to 98.6. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 1 point to 72, the outlook for November going down 1 point to 72.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index stayed unchanged in September at 99.5, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points to 98.5.

The economy added 419,000 jobs year-on-year in October backed by the service sector. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 3.0 percent.

Consumer prices remained flat in October compared with a year ago. Petroleum product prices and fresh food prices continued to fall. Core inflation rose 0.8 percent.

KOSPI rose, the won strengthened and Korea treasury yields increased in October.

Both the housing prices (up 0.01% → up 0.12%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lumpsum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (down 0.03% → up 0.09%, m-o-m) rose in October.

Although the economy has been growing steadily, exports and investment remain weak amid slowing global demand, including the weak semiconductor market.

Uncertainties linger as the global economy is “experiencing a synchronized slowdown” and the US-China trade conflicts continue.

The government will strengthen its risk management and work to implement fiscal measures as planned, such as budget spending, policy-based financing and trade financing. The 2020 economic policies will contain plans to promote the private sector in order to help the economy gain momentum.
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