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Economic Bulletin

Economic Bulletin, December 2019

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  • 저자 KDI 경제정보센터
  • 발행일 2019/12/30
  • 시리즈 번호 Vol.41 No.12
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요약 Services and construction investment improved in October, while mining & manufacturing slowed down, as well as facilities investment. Job markets continued to improve in November and consumer prices rose somewhat.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent from the previous month in October as mining & manufacturing declined (down 1.7%, m-o-m and down 2.5%, y-o-y) . Services improved somewhat (up 0.3%, m-o-m and up 0.7%, y-o-y).

Retail sales (down 0.5%, m-o-m and up 2.1%, y-o-y) and facilities investment (down 0.8%, m-o-m and down 4.8%, y-o-y) went down in October. Construction investment increased (up 1.7%, m-o-m and down 4.3%, y-o-y).

Exports declined 14.3 percent year-on-year in November, slowing down for a 12th consecutive month, as global demand remained weak, including the semiconductor market.

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) continued to rise in November, up 2.3 points to 100.9. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 2 points to 74, and the outlook for December went down 1 point to 71.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.1 points to 99.4, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points to 98.7.

The economy added 331,000 jobs year-on-year in November backed by the service sector. The unemployment rate stayed low at 3.1 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent year-on-year in November as the declines in farm product prices and petroleum product prices decelerated. Core inflation rose 0.6 percent.

KOSPI fell in November, as well as Korea treasury yields, after rallying until the middle of the month. The won weakened.

Both the housing prices (up 0.12% → up 0.19%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lumpsum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.09% → up 0.14%, m-o-m) rose in November.

Growth has been slowing down, despite solid consumption and services, as exports and construction investment have not picked up.

Uncertainties linger amid “a synchronized slowdown” in the global economy and concerns about the US-China trade conflicts. Semiconductor markets remain weak and Japan’s export controls continues.
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