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Working Paper

A 53-Sector Interindustry Projection Model for Korea, 1974-1981

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  • 저자 김윤형
  • 발행일 1975/07/01
  • 시리즈 번호 7505
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요약 In the preparation of Korea's Fourth Five-Year Plan a
53-sector interindustry model has been constructed to analyze
long-run structural changes in the Korean economy. In
particular, the model examines the effects on sectoral output,
employment, investment and import requirements resulting from
assumed structural changes in consumption and export patterns
as well as in import substitution.

The model may be regarded as a "requirements analysis".
Given targets on consumption and exports derived from the
macro-model, the following questions are to be studies in this
paper within the consistent accounting framework of the 1970
input-output table complied by the Bank of Korea in 1973:

1) how much should be produced in each sector in each
year of the plan (1977-1981), with the emphasis on
heavy and chemical industries?
2) how much should be invested to increase the capital
stock in each sector in each year, with the emphasis on
heavy and chemical industries?

The simulation will be run with a variety of exogenous
projections of consumption, import substitution and exports with
close attention being paid to the sectoral investment levels over
time implied by different plans. These sectoral investment levels
are then compared to planned investment and efforts are made
to shift the sectoral composition of investment.

The next section is devoted to the mathematical formulation
of a 53-sector interindustry model. In the third section, we give
a detailed discussion of the solution technique we use. The
fourth section explains the development of the data. In the final
section of the paper, the numerical results are presented.

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