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기타 연구자료

An Econometric Forecasting Model of the Korean Economy

페이스북
커버이미지
  • 저자 송희연(宋熙秊)
  • 발행일 1993/04/01
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요약 The primary objective of this research is to estimate the
structural equations of the Korean economy in rather aggregate
forms, so that they could eventually be used as a short-term
forecasting tool. the simulation of some of the economic
processes through the model makes it possible to experiment
with the ultimate consequences of alternative sets of policy
adjustments. An accurate projection with a given set of policy
decisions will be a great help in formulating the Korean annual
plan.

This paper is divided into four major sections, The
estimated equations which are believed to be the most reliable
descriptions of the structure of the Korean economy are
presented first. Nest, the nature of the equations is discussed in
terms of economic experience and statistical validity. The third
section tests the performance of the model with the dynamic
simulation experiments, along with the forecasts for 1972, 1973
and 1974. Finally, the paper closes with some concluding
remarks.

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