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KDI - Korea Development Institute

KDI - Korea Development Institute



Other Research Empirical Analyses on Demand-Supply Mismatches in the Korean Local Housing Markets December 31, 2013

Other Research KOR Empirical Analyses on Demand-Supply Mismatches in the Korean Local Housing Markets #Real Estate

December 31, 2013

  • KDI
    Cho, Man
  • KDI
    Jaeyoung Son
As a commodity, housing is known to be highly heterogenous with respect to its own attributes (e.g., structures, neighborhoods, and tenure types) as well as its occupants' characteristics (e.g., income levels, age cohorts, and household sizes). With this as a backdrop, this research examines micro-level demand-supply mis-matches in local housing markets in Korea, and further tests their effects on housing price dynamics therein. In measuring extents of the mis-matches, we employ a non-parametric method (the decision tree analysis) along with the conventional econometric models for housing price dynamics.

Our results show that: first, in a long-term and macro sense, the level of mis-match (or of excess demand) has been declining over time, thanks to the milestone housing supply shocks from 1980s; second, according to the micro data produced by the periodic (every five years) census data, there have been various structural shifts in the local housing markets in Korea during the 2000s, both in the demand side and in the supply side; third, the decision tree analyses indicate that, while one particular structural type, the multi-family apartment units, experienced an over-supply, it was opposite for other structural types (i.e., in shortage); and, finally, size of the mis-match (i.e., extend of excess demand) exhibits a positive correlation with housing price movement, which is shown to be statistically significant.
요 약

제1장 거시·미시적 지표, 실증분석, 정책시사점 (조만·손재영)
 제1절 서 론
 제2절 거시적 지표로 본 수급불균형 추이
 제3절 가구·주택유형의 변화(2000~10년)
 제4절 거시 수급불균형 분석
 제5절 미시 수급불균형 분석
 제6절 정책시사점

제2장 가구 및 거주주택 특성 (남영우·신종칠)
 제1절 분석 자료의 개요
 제2절 가구특성 및 변화
 제3절 주택의 특성 및 변화
 제4절 지역별 가구 및 주택의 변화
 제5절 1인 가구의 특성 분석
 제6절 노인 가구의 특성분석
 제7절 분석결과의 종합

제3장 가구주 세분시장별 거주주택특성 분석 (남영우·신종칠)
 제1절 분석의 개요
 제2절 가구주 연령대 세분시장의 특성분석
 제3절 가구원수 세분시장의 특성분석
 제4절 가구주 교육수준 세분시장의 특성분석
 제5절 분석결과의 종합

제4장 의사결정나무 모형을 통한 주택수급분석 (이준용)
 제1절 분석 모형 이론 및 모형 설정
 제2절 의사결정나무 모형 분석 결과
 제3절 가구변화에 따른 필요 주택량 추정

제5장 수급불균형이 주택가격에 미치는 영향 분석 (정의철)
 제1절 서론
 제2절 선행연구 검토
 제3절 실증분석모형
 제4절 자료 및 기초통계분석
 제5절 추정결과
 제6절 소결

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