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KDI News What‘s Up Newsletter Vol.19

The 19th issue of the KDI What's Up newsletter is now available!

March 18, 2025
News KDI President Participates in the Global Labor Market Conference (GLMC)

KDI President Dongchul Cho participated as a speaker at the GLMC, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from January 29 to 30.

February 06, 2025
KDI FOCUS Competition Policy for Online Platforms’ Self-Preferencing Conducts

Self-preferencing by online platforms encompasses a spectrum of conduct types, all with implications for both anti-competitive and...

December 23, 2024
KDI FOCUS Restoring Labor Market Functions to Address Job Insecurity among Middle-Aged and Older Workers

In the Republic of Korea, middle-aged and older workers experience unusually high job insecurity due to limited labor demand for them.

December 17, 2024
News “2024 Knowledge Exchange Days (KED)” successfully took place at the GKEDC

The inaugural 2024 KED took place successfully from October 31 (Thu) to November 1 (Fri), hosted by the MOEF and organized by KDI and GKEDC.

November 14, 2024
News The 2024 APN Conference successfully ended

The 2024 Asia-Pacific PPP Practitioners’ Network (APN) was held in Seoul, Korea, at Nine Tree ROKAUS Seoul Yongsan, from October 22 to October 23.

November 14, 2024
KDI FOCUS Protecting Customer Funds for Emerging Financial Products

Emerging financial products driven by innovation, such as virtual assets and simplified payment services, introduce both new conveniences and...

December 03, 2024
News The 2024 KDI Conference: Reform Measures for Enhancing Productivity in the Korean Economy

In his opening remarks, KDI President Dongchul Cho emphasized that enhancing productivity across society is essential to supporting...

December 17, 2024
KDI FOCUS Galapagos Syndrome in South Korea’s Real Estate PF, and the Need for Fundamental Structural Reform

Over the past several decades, real estate project financing (PF) has repeatedly triggered economic disturbances in Korea, with no fundamental remedies in sight until now.

December 02, 2024
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Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, February 2025
Following the pandemic, North Korea has recalibrated its foreign relations, forging stronger ties with Russia through artillery support, troop deployments, and formal treaties―strategic moves to enhance leverage in U.S. negotiations. While Trump's second term presents opportunities for dialogue, Pyongyang's "two-state theory" and Moscow alignment have transformed regional security dynamics. Future U.S.-North Korea engagement will depend on U.S.-Russia relations and Moscow's Pyongyang policy. At recent party meetings, North Korean leadership praised 2024's economic performance and reaffirmed commitment to completing the Five-Year Plan by 2025. Marking the 80th anniversaries of the Workers' Party and national liberation, North Korea is implementing economic reforms and infrastructure development ahead of the 9th Party Congress. This edition includes a timeline of U.S.-North Korea relations since 2000.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, January 2025
The January issue assesses North Korea’s 2024 economy and outlook for 2025. Externally, North Korea strengthened economic cooperation with Russia, expanded trade with China, and sought to enhance its bargaining power with the U.S. Its deepening ties with Russia served as a strategic buffer, reinforcing its external policy stance. Domestically, the "20×10 Local Development Policy" aimed to reduce regional disparities but was hindered by fiscal constraints. Market instability persisted, while state intervention in distribution channels drove up prices, potentially escalating tensions between the state and market forces. As the Five-Year Plan concludes in 2025, production targets take priority, with large-scale output campaigns expected. The government is likely to declare the plan’s completion and announce a new strategy at the 9th Party Congress. Despite food production remaining at typical levels, capital shortages and tighter state control over food distribution could disrupt markets and fuel discontent. In 2025, North Korea will strengthen economic ties with Russia and China while resisting inter-Korean or U.S. negotiations without major concessions. Uncertainty will persist throughout 2025, with economic volatility, international sanctions, and exchange rate fluctuations shaping the country’s economic trajectory.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, December 2024
Remote sensing technology, through revolutionary advancements in satellite imagery, is fundamentally transforming North Korean studies. Multi-layered analysis capabilities through optical, thermal band, and radar satellite imagery now enable precise observations of environmental changes, land use transitions, urbanization patterns, economic disparities, and structural transformations. The New Space era, with enhanced commercial satellite capabilities and sophisticated AI-based analytics, has established an unprecedented framework for empirically understanding this closed nation. These breakthroughs yield substantial results across domains, including the surveillance of logistics movements through customs, ports, and railway hubs; scrutiny of developmental patterns in major urban centers such as Pyongyang, Kaesong, and Rason; and evaluation of forest restoration policy efficacy. While technical limitations persist regarding data accuracy and algorithmic reliability, the integration of multi-sensor data and refined analytical techniques offers solutions. With continued technological advancement and international collaboration, remote sensing is poised to serve as a pivotal instrument in enhancing North Korean research, contributing significantly to economic planning, environmental management, and policy formulation.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, November 2024
This issue delves into the intensifying North Korea-Russia relations and their economic, military, and diplomatic ramifications. Following the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement," North Korea has deepened political, economic, and military cooperation with Russia. This alliance, driven by the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, has enabled North Korea to secure foreign currency and rejuvenate its defense industry through arms exports and labor deployment. Russia, in turn, supplies military technology and economic aid, advancing North Korea's defense modernization and provocation capabilities. Nevertheless, Russia is unlikely to supplant China as North Korea's primary economic partner, given China's stable trade relations and superior qualitative contributions to economic growth. Militarily, North Korea's collaboration with Russia accelerates its strategic weapons development and offensive capabilities. However, Russia is expected to temper its support to balance international criticism with its wartime priorities. As the incoming Trump administration raises the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine, South Korea must ensure active participation in U.S.-Russia discussions on Korean Peninsula issues and mitigate the security risks posed by North Korea's expanding defense capabilities.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, October 2024
North Korea's increasing frequency of natural disasters has drawn attention to its response strategies. The July 2024 Yalu River flood prompted North Korea to bolster its disaster preparedness, focusing on stockpiling resources and strengthening crisis management. Using satellite imagery and international weather data, the country is refining analysis methods to better match its unique vulnerabilities. North Korea is also intensifying its climate response. Under the Paris Agreement framework, options for inter-Korean cooperation through the international carbon market are being considered, including using North Korea's greenhouse gas reduction potential to help South Korea meet its NDC goals. In agriculture, favorable weather conditions in 2024 have led to positive crop projections. According to the USDA and EU MARS, North Korea's rice and corn yields are expected to exceed average levels this year. Despite localized heavy rain damage, agricultural production appears stable, with farmland losses in Sinuiju and Uiju having limited impact on overall grain output. Lastly, North Korea stresses the importance of joint climate action with South Korea in addressing the global climate crisis, viewing such collaboration as a strategic opportunity to mitigate environmental and security risks on the Korean Peninsula while gaining international support.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, September 2024
The September issue features eight articles on recent trends and future challenges in North Korean economic research, along with a retrospective on Dr. Lee Seok’s 20-year contributions, who retired in August 2024 as editor-in-chief of the KDI Review of the North Korean Economy and head of the research division. North Korean economic studies currently face significant challenges, including strained inter-Korean relations, North Korea's isolationist policies, and waning domestic interest. The research focuses on three core areas: North Korea’s domestic economy, inter-Korean cooperation, and reunification readiness. The increasing use of big data and recent data disclosures from the Ministry of Unification have been positively received. Scholars are encouraged to investigate the regime’s structural changes and their wider implications, while also adopting a global perspective on policy. Although satellite-based research is expected to expand, careful interpretation remains crucial. The foremost challenge is securing reliable data, particularly given the suspension of economic cooperation, pandemic-related border closures, and China’s anti-espionage law. Ongoing efforts to gather and validate data, along with international collaboration, are vital for deepening analysis and sharing insights into North Korea’s economy.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, August 2024
The August issue addresses the challenges and improvement directions for policies supporting North Korean defectors. While these policies have seen continuous modifications, they now face new demands for qualitative changes. The government has established 'North Korean Defectors' Day' and reaffirmed its commitment, yet criticisms persist regarding the lack of tailored support, indicating improved policy efficiency. The city of Seoul has expanded its support, with around 20% of defectors residing there. The settlement status of these defectors is analyzed through demographics, economic activity, and social integration, offering policy insights. Economic hardship remains prevalent among defectors, underscoring the need for effective economic education. KDI's economic education program aims to enhance defectors' economic independence. There's a clear need for both quantitative and qualitative improvements in this education, requiring systematic and well-designed approaches to better support defectors' social integration and economic stability in South Korea.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, July 2024
The July issue analyzes North Korea's current economic situation and its development potential. As of 2024, the North Korean economy faces a critical juncture, with rapid growth possible if denuclearization and reforms are implemented. However, North Korea's continued confrontational stance has resulted in prolonged economic stagnation. The review examines economic reform cases in China and Vietnam. China's reforms since 1978 have led to a twelvefold GDP increase and an eightfold per capita GDP increase. Vietnam's Doi Moi policy, initiated in 1986, has achieved a 6.2% average annual GDP growth over three decades, transitioning it to a middle-income country. Internal developments in North Korea show a growing prevalence of informal economic activities. Small-scale asset privatization and evolving market-centered relationships among economic actors are observed, suggesting potential for positive changes in the civilian economy upon reform implementation. The review also highlights North Korea's tourism resources as a potential economic driver. Case studies of Vietnam and Cuba demonstrate tourism's significant contribution to economic progress in transitioning economies. This issue illuminates North Korea's potential for change, emphasizing the necessity of resolving the nuclear issue and implementing economic reforms. It presents analyses and projections of North Korea's future transformation, outlining a blueprint for economic cooperation on the Korean Peninsula.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, June 2024
In June 2024, a North Korea-Russia summit marked Putin's first Pyongyang visit in 24 years. The June issue examines its implications for bilateral relations and North Korea's economy. The nations signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty, elevating their relationship to a de facto alliance. North Korea aims to address energy and food issues, modernize its military industry, and boost economic self-reliance, while Russia seeks to integrate North Korea into its defense industry supply chain. The countries agreed to strengthen collaboration in transportation, logistics, energy, and military sectors. Short-term plans include increased refined oil supplies, with long-term prospects covering labor dispatch, infrastructure development, and energy and fisheries cooperation. Additionally, they aim to reshape Northeast Asia's global supply chains by improving transportation infrastructure and resuming air routes. However, Russia's financial constraints may limit large-scale aid, and North Korea still struggles to attract foreign capital. China's lukewarm response to this rapprochement suggests potential shifts in North Korea-China-Russia relations. This alignment is interpreted as a strategy to neutralize international sanctions and solidify North Korea's economic foundation for regime maintenance. It is expected to significantly impact the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian geopolitics.

Summary

Other Research KOR KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, May 2024
The May issue analyzes several pivotal topics concerning the Korean Peninsula in 2024: North Korea's policy shifts, the U.S. presidential election and its implications for the region, cyber security strategies, and the evolution of state-run shops in Pyongyang under the Kim Jong-un regime. North Korea is advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities while bolstering ties with Russia and China. Domestically, it exhibits notable changes, such as excluding South Korea from its reunification agenda. The U.S. policy towards the Korean Peninsula remains contingent on the presidential election results. Nonetheless, South Korea should enhance the continuity and stability of its alliance with the U.S., diversify its security cooperation framework, and maintain a consistent stance towards North Korea, with an emphasis on crisis management. In terms of U.S.-ROK cyber security cooperation, it is essential to fortify information sharing systems, foster collaboration among public, private, and academic sectors, and explore partnerships with allies like Japan. Pyongyang's state-run shops under Kim Jong-un are integrating market principles and employing modernization strategies to distinguish themselves from traditional markets, indicating economic reforms aimed at reinforcing regime stability. Furthermore, this issue offers a foundational analysis of North Korea's state-run shops using research methods such as a quantitative analysis of the Rodong Sinmun, qualitative analysis of North Korean literature, and interviews with North Korean defectors.