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KDI Economic Outlook 2024-1st Half
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What's the forecast for the Korean economy next year?
The Korean economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024, fueled by a surge in exports. In 2025, the growth rate is projected to be 2.1%, as domestic demand strengthens while export growth moderates. Despite the relatively high growth rate anticipated for this year, it merely compensates for the economic slowdown in 2023. Consequently, a return to a neutral level of economic recovery is forecasted for 2025.
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On the other hand, if international oil prices rise or if the slowdown in China's real estate market affects the broader economy, the recovery of the Korean economy could be postponed. Moreover, if global trade contracts due to increased protectionist trade measures following the U.S. presidential election in late 2024, it may hinder Korea's growth trend especially in terms of exports.
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KDI Monthly Economic Trends
(2024.5)
Mitigating economic slowdown
The Korean economy has been experiencing an easing of the slowdown. While services production has been growing at a slower pace and construction production has been declining, the trend has been eased by a robust recovery in exports and semiconductor production. Meanwhile, employment conditions remain favorable amid decelerating inflation.
KDI President Dongchul Cho
visits Vietnam
Vietnam as an emerging partner
During his visit on April 16th, President Cho visited the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences and the Central Party Economic Committee. These key organizations, which focus on conducting research and analyzing Vietnam's economic policies, sought a meeting with KDI to benchmark Korea’s experiences and gain insights into Vietnam’s development strategies.
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KDI GKEDC-World Bank Capacity Building Program
Demographic change and pension systems in EAP
From April 16th to 19th, the KDI and the World Bank hosted a capacity-building program on the demographic change and pension systems in EAP to address pension reforms in the East Asia and Pacific region in response to aging populations.
The program included government officials from Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, and Vietnam, as well as World Bank experts. Over four days, participants engaged in thematic sessions, field visits, and action plan activities focused on narrowing pension gaps, civil servant pension systems, and various reform strategies. The program aimed to enhance policy capabilities, encourage the creation of country-specific action plans and facilitate the sharing of reform ideas and strategies through discussions and consultations.
Read more
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Epilogue
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