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KDI Newsletter March 9, 2023
vol.358
KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2023. 3
The Korean economy is facing a persistent slowdown due to slowing domestic demand and shrinking exports.
Sagging exports driven by deteriorating external conditions put downward pressure on the manufacturing industry.
Contraction in exports continues, led by China by destination and in semiconductors by sector.
The manufacturing industry is undergoing considerable contraction, marked by a sharp decline in production and an evident increase in inventories, especially semiconductors.
Lackluster manufacturing has resulted in a decline in equipment investment and a slowdown in employment growth.
Rising interest rates are spilling over the overall economy, putting a drag on consumer spending and construction investment.
Consumption is gradually slowing down, with retail sales remaining stagnant and the growth of service production decelerating.
The weaker real estate market due to high-interest rates has dampened investment in construction.
Meanwhile, the economic sentiment index is improving in anticipation of a recovery, mainly following China’s reopening, but real indicators remain sluggish.
The business sentiment index for services, both internal and external, improved, expectant of an economic rebound led by the service industry as China reopens.
Nevertheless, exports to China are still in a slump, and China’s real economic indicators remain weak, implying that the tangible positive impact of China’s reopening has yet to materialize in Korea’s real economy.
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future
The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.
Main Tasks
Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
Policy study on macroeconomic management
Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
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