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  • Economic Bulletin, December 2020
  • Date December 29, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Policy Issue
     2021 economic policies

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     GDP fell 1.1% in Q3 2020
     Korean FDI amounts to US $10.77 billion in Q3 2020

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Services improved from the previous month, but retail sales and manufacturing slowed, as well as facilities investment and completed construction works.

Industrial production stayed flat from the previous month in October. Mining and manufacturing slowed (down 1.2%, m-o-m and down 2.2%, y-o-y) and services output (up 1.2%, m-o-m and down 2.5%, y-o-y) improved. Industrial production fell 2.7 percent year on year.

Retail sales (down 0.9%, m-o-m and down 0.2%, y-o-y) declined, and so did facilities investment (down 3.3%, m-o-m and down 1.0%, y-o-y) and completed construction works (down 0.1%, m-o-m and down 8.9%, y-o-y).

Exports rose 4.1 percent year-on-year in November, despite fewer days worked (0.5 days). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, went up 6.4 percent from a year ago (US $1.87 billion (November 2019) → US $1.99 billion (November 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) increased 6.3 points in November to 97.9. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector rose 6 points to 85, and the BSI outlook for December went up 5 points to 81.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for October increased 0.5 points to 98.3, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.4 points to 101.8.

The economy lost 273,000 jobs year-on-year in November, and the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 3.4 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent from a year ago, and core inflation rose 1.0 percent.

KOSPI jumped in November on expectations for COVID-19 vaccines. The won strengthened and Korea treasury yields went up in line with rising market interest rates.

Home prices continued to increase in November (up 0.32% → up 0.54%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.47% → up 0.66%, m-o-m).

The economy has seen exports improving steadily. However, uncertainties are increasing as to the real economy with a resurgent virus in mid-November, which has brought stricter social distancing into effect again.

Worries continue over the slowing real economy amid a resurgent virus in major economies and stronger lockdowns that follow. However, there are also expectations for a recovery as COVID-19 vaccines are on the way.

The government will continue with its disease prevention efforts, and will do its utmost to help the economy see a strong rebound.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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