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  • Economic Bulletin, November 2020
  • Date November 26, 2020
  • Language English
PDF Economic Bulletin Website
    ■ The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
     Overview
     01. External economic situation
     02. Private consumption
     03. Facility investment
     04. Construction investment
     05. Exports and imports
     06. Mining and manufacturing production
     07. Service sector activity
     08. Employment
     09. Financial markets
      9.1 Stock market
      9.2 Exchange rate
      9.3 Bond market
      9.4 Money supply and money market
     10. Balance of payments
     11. Prices
      11.1 Consumer prices
      11.2 International oil and commodity prices
     12. Real estate market
      12.1 Housing market
      12.2 Land market
     13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

    ■ Economic News Briefing
     External debt amounts to US $511.0 billion, soundness indicators improving
     Korea to invest 1.6 trillion won next year to promote an ‘untact’ economy
     Government selects 279 firms so far for innovative business support
     Korea to provide coronavirus support for Asian and African countries through EDCF

    ■ Statistical Appendices
Production indicators, as well as expenditure indicators, improved in September. Unemployment remained weak.

Industrial production rose 2.3 percent from the previous month in September. Mining and manufacturing increased (up 5.4%, m-o-m and up 8.0%, y-o-y), as well as services output (up 0.3%, m-o-m and up 0.0%, y-o-y). Industrial production improved 3.4 percent year on year.

Retail sales (up 1.7%, m-o-m and up 4.4%, y-o-y) rose. Facilities investment (up 7.4%, m-o-m and up 16.8%, y-o-y) and completed construction works (up 6.4%, m-o-m and up 6.3%, y-o-y) went up.

Exports declined 3.6 percent year-on-year in October due to fewer days worked (2 days). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, went up 5.6 percent from a year ago (US $2.03 billion (October 2019) → US $2.14 billion (October 2020)).

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) jumped by 12.2 points in October to 91.6. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector rose 11 points to 79, and the BSI outlook for November went up 8 points to 76.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for September increased 0.3 points to 97.9, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.4 points to 101.3.

The economy lost 421,000 jobs year-on-year in October, and the unemployment rate rose 0.7 percentage points from a year ago to 3.7 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent from a year ago in October as government support for cell phone service fees brought down public service prices. Core inflation rose 0.1 percent.

KOSPI struggled in October amid growing concerns over the resurging virus in major economies. The won strengthened due to a strong yuan and Korea treasury yields increased in line with rising market interest rates.

Home price growth continued to slow down in October (up 0.42% → up 0.32%, m-o-m), and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices rose at a slower rate (up 0.53% → up 0.47%, m-o-m).

Although the economy has seen exports and production improving, as well as consumption and investment, services and employment remain weak and there are uncertainties over coronavirus resurging in major economies.

Worries continue as to whether the virus resurgence and subsequent lockdowns in global economies would lead to slowing recovery, but at the same time expectations soar for COVID-19 vaccines.

The government will continue with its disease prevention efforts, while working to help the economy recover, such as by properly managing fiscal resources, as well as through measures to boost consumption and promote exports.
 
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Office of Global Economy
Providing Economic Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Direction, the Groundwork for a Brighter Future

The Department of Macroeconomics is conducting researches on the macro economy and macroeconomic policy, particularly focusing on suggesting the analysis of macroeconomic trends and current status of the economy at home and abroad, the economic forecast, and the policy direction of the macro economy. The Department is also in charge of establishing, sustaining and maintaining various econometric models, based on which it analyses policy effects and develops a long-term economic forecast.

Main Tasks
  • Economic trend analysis, short- and long-term forecast
  • Policy study on macroeconomic management
  • Basic structural analysis on macroeconomic areas
  • Maintenance of multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model
Department of Macroeconomic Policy
  • LEE. Tae Suk

    Director, Division of Analysis and Evaluation

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHO, Byungkoo On leave

    Director and Vice President, Department of North Korean Economy

    82-044-550-4725
  • LEE, Jongkyu

    Fellow

    82-044-550-4725
  • WEE, Hyeseung Dispatched

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • NAM, Jinwook On leave

    Specialist

    82-044-550-4725
  • KIM, Seulki

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
  • CHUN, Eunkyung

    Research Associate

    82-044-550-4725
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