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Housing Market Developments in Cyprus

EUROPA 2018.09.27
This study analyses demand, supply and price developments in Cyprus, in the run-up to its banking crisis and the early years of the recovery, analysing also new information on prices in levels. It further looks into alternative models to forecast house price inflation in Cyprus taking into account particular country characteristics and developments. Although there are many difficulties with this exercise, related to data availability, this analysis constitutes a first step in creating a database of relevant data and understanding the empirical correlation between potential explanatory variables and house prices trends. There appears to be a correlation between house prices and purchasing capacity, deposits, foreign sales, housing stocks, and NPLs. The presence of higher NPLs in particular appears to drag house prices down. High NPLs not only indicate credit tightening, but they also reflect pressure on households and businesses for real estate asset disposal as a mean to assist deleveraging, and therefore an ensuing increase in real estate supply.

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