Inference and Forecasting Based on the Phillips Curve / Kun Ho Kim and Suna Park

In this paper, we conduct uniform inference of two widely used versions of the Phillips curve, specifically the random-walk Phillips curve and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). For both specifications, we propose a potentially time-varying natural unemployment (NAIRU) to address the uncertainty surrounding the inflation-unemployment trade-off. The inference is conducted through the construction of what is known as the uniform confidence band (UCB). The proposed methodology is then applied to point-ahead inflation forecasting for the Korean economy. This paper finds that the forecasts can benefit from conducting UCB-based inference and that the inference results have important policy implications.

Private Equity as an Alternative Corporate Restructuring Scheme: Does Private Equity Increase the Operating Performance of PE-Backed Firms? / Jahyun Koo

There has been a surge of interest in private equity as an alternative corporate restructuring scheme to complement the current institutional forms such as workouts and court receivership. By empirically examining whether private equity in Korea can improve investee companies, we find that while private equity in Korea did not sacrifice the long-term growth potential of investee firms, it did not improve their profitability (e.g. ROA, ROE, and ROS) or growth (e.g. sales growth) either. Both the negative correlation between business performance and firm age and our empirical results showing that young firms were favored by private equity for investment imply that Korean private equity may perform as growth capital, similar to venture capital rather than as buyouts for corporate restructuring.

The Interaction between China, Japan, and Korea in the Export Market / Kyu-Chul Jung

This paper analyzes changes in the export potential and competitiveness of China, Japan, and Korea. The analysis of Japan’s export market share reveals that in sectors where Korea’s potential was strong in the early 1990s, Japan’s market share diminished. This suggests the possibility that Korea was catching up with Japan, eating into Japan’s market share. The same analysis of Korea’s export market share in the 2000s shows, for items in which China’s export potential was high, Korea’s market share has declined comparatively since 2010, with the tendency growing much larger. China’s export potential continues to expand in markets for Korea’s key export products, making it difficult to rule out the possibility that Korea’s competitiveness in key export products will be hindered, driven by the catching up of China. To respond to these challenges, it is important for Korea continuously to foster and enhance creative and core capabilities that latecomers will not easily be able to emulate.

The Impact of Government Support of Graduate Schools on the Research Productivity of Professors and Students / Jin-Yeong kim

This paper examines the effects of major funding projects for graduate education in Korea, specifically the BK21 and the WCU programs, on the research productivity of professors and young researchers. We apply the standard DID method, which compares the increase in research outputs as measured by papers per year between groups before and during the project period. The DID estimates show that the effects are quite different for different fields, but they mostly indicate that the BK21 project is more effective in terms of the research productivity of the participating professors, especially those who study science and engineering areas. With regard to the productivity of graduate students, the results show that there was an increase in the research productivity of locally educated Korean doctoral degree holders after the graduate funding programs, mainly in natural science and engineering fields.

A Signaling Theory of Education under the Presence of Career Concerns / Sunjoo Hwang

A person’s life consists of two important stages: the first stage as a student and the second stage as a worker. In an integrated model of education and career concerns, I analyze the welfare effects of education. In Spence’s job market signaling model, education as a sorting device improves efficiency by mitigating the lemon market problem. In contrast, in the integrated model, education as a sorting device can be detrimental to social welfare, as it eliminates work incentives generated by career concerns.