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Working Paper

A Demographic-Economic Model for Korea : Long-Term Demographic Prospect and Policy Impacts

페이스북
커버이미지
  • 저자 구성열(具成烈)
  • 발행일 1982/03/01
  • 시리즈 번호 8201
원문보기
요약 Based in the results of the policy analysis the following
suggestions can be made.

1) The size of the population in the future is affected
greatly by the direction of the family planning program
and emigration policies. But it is rather insensitive to the
direction of population redistribution policy since the
urban-rural fertility difference is very small already and
will disappear during the earlier part of the projection..
Although there may be some mortality differential between
regions, it is more likely to cancel out the fertility effect
on the size of population since the urban area has better
medical facilities and so has lower mortality.

2) As far as there is a time lag for the government
supported contraceptors to become fully voluntary
contraceptors, the current family planning program should
not be relaxed. For controlling the size of the population,
fertility control is more effective than emigration. This is
obvious from the result that even if the adjustment time
lag is only five years, withdrawal of the government
family planning program results on an larger population
size than that resulting from the absence of the 0.11%
annual emigration for a considerable length of time.

3) If the adjustment period is 10 years rather than five
years, the incremental population is more than proportional
to the length of the adjustment period. The reason is that
there is relatively more fecund-age female population
during the 1987-1991 period compared to the 1982-1986
period.

4) Assuming that the age-sex composition of emigrants is
not drastically different from that of non-emigrants, the
current rate of emigration has very limited effect on the
size of domestic population. The difference in population
size between assumption E-1 (no emigration from 1982)
and assumption E-2(no emigration from 1992), stays
within such a limited range that the two curves in Figure
VI-1 move almost in parallel. Thus, emigration has a
significant effect on the size of the population only after it
has been pursued over a long period. However, it is quite
obvious that earlier emigration is more preferable to a
later one if the timing is ti be chosen at all since fertility
is on a decreasing trend.

5) The impact of the rapid urbanization on the size of
population is negligible since the urban-rural difference in
the level of fertility is substantially narrowed. Thus, a
population redistribution policy should be directly aimed at
solving the already severe regional unbalance, the
manpower shortage in rural areas and the heavy
concentration of population in urban areas.

From the above points, it is apparent that population policies
become effective only if they are pursued steadily over a long
period. Although negligible in the short-run, the effect of
persistent policy implementation is substantial when it is
cumulated over the long-term period. Thus, the current policies
toward fertility, emigration and internal migration should all be
pursued ceaselessly despite whether they sere successful of not
in the past.
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