■ 코로나19 확산으로 인한 사회활동 제약과 대면소비에 대한 기피는 전체 가계소비의 감소요인으로 작용하였으나, 비대면소비는 오히려 증가시킨 것으로 분석됨.

■ 가계소비는 코로나19 집단면역이 가시화되기 전까지 부진할 가능성이 높다는 점에서 완화적인 거시경제정책을 지속할 필요

■ Restrictions on social activities and avoidance of in-person consumption due to Covid-19 drove down overall household consumption but increased in non-face-to-face consumption.

○ In 2020, households significantly reduced in-person consumption due to infection concerns and social distancing but expanded non-face-to-face consumption at a relatively fast pace to make up for the decrease in in-person consumption.

In particular, non-face-to-face consumption of items such as automobiles surged,mainly among high-income households with relatively higher spending capacity.

On the other hand, middle-income households who have had the lowest disposable income growth appear to have spent less on durable goods and more on precautionary savings as they are being hit hardest by the pandemic.

○ Considering that the recent changes in household consumption were mainly due to Covid-19, a rapid recovery will come particularly from face-to-face consumption as the Covid-19 shock eases.

However, the growth in non-face-to-face consumption will likely slow if the consumption composition normalizes before Covid-19 and the base effect are reflected.

■ Considering that household consumption will probably remain sluggish until herd immunity has been achieved, the government needs to maintain accommodative its macroeconomic policies.

○ The spread of Covid-19, a major cause of the recent sluggish household consumption, needs to be suppressed as strongly as possible through rapid
vaccine rollouts and continued quarantine measures.

○ Since the low interest rate is cushioning the contraction in consumption, the economy must be supported (incl. household consumption) by maintaining the accommodative stance in monetary policy for the time being.

○ In addition, financial support should be considered within a reasonable range and level so that a decrease in households’ market income resulting from social distancing, etc. will not lead to a further contraction in consumption.

Considering that the consumption shock from Covid-19 was most pronounced among the middle-income households, it is necessary to take into account not only the income level of each income class but also the size of shock to their income when selecting the targets of government support.

In addition, since effective quarantine is key to a recovery of household consumption, simultaneous support to those heavily burdened with social costs stemming from social distancing measures needs to be provided in order to secure the acceptance and sustainability of quarantine policies.