인구구조 고령화는 경제성장을 둔화시키는가? - Does Population Aging Slow Down Per Capita Income Growth?
한진희2005.03.16
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| 인구구조 고령화는 경제성장을 둔화시키는가? Does Population Aging Slow Down Per Capita Income Growth? |
| 한진희 (KDI 연구위원) |
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Abstract This study examined the issue of whether per capita income growth rate will decline as a result of population aging, utilizing cross-country data. First, this paper shows that the most distinguishing demographic characteristics of the “growth miracle” country of Korea during the period from 1961 to 1990 lies in the miraculous speed of changes in various demographic indicators.such as working-age population ratio, fertility rate, and population growth rate.not in the level of such indicators. Second, based on simple correlation analysis, it was found that there exist significant correlations between measures of speed of demographic transition and per capita income growth rate. That is, countries which experienced more rapid increase in their working-age population ratio, faster decline in fertility rate, or faster decline in population growth rate, tend to exhibit higher per capita income growth rate. Meanwhile, although the level of working-age population ratio is strongly and positively related to per capita income growth rate of countries, the correlation between the change in (i.e., differenced) working-age population ratio and the change in per capita income growth rate is very low. This suggests that the positive cross-country correlation between per capita income growth rate and the age structure of population, which seems to underlie the argument that population aging will slow down per capita income growth, reflects country-specific fixed effects. Finally, although both the level and the speed of change in working-age population ratio, for example, were estimated to be positive in cross-country regressions, the coefficient on the former was not robust to the inclusion of control variables. Overall, the empirical evidence provided in this paper suggest that population aging by itself is not likely to be a serious threat to per capita income growth in the future. |
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