고령화의 진전과 한국의 금융시장 - Aging and Asset Demand in Korea
박창균2005.03.16
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| 고령화의 진전과 한국의 금융시장 Aging and Asset Demand in Korea |
| 박창균 (KDI 부연구위원) |
| The paper examines the effect of aging on demand for various categories of assets and projects the long-term trend in demand for assets based on the estimated age effect and official population projection for the next 50 years. It is now a well-known assertion that changes in demographic structure convoluted with life-cycle pattern of individual saving decision may result in significant fluctuations in financial market. Aging is surely a major change in demographic structure. The main findings of the analyses are that demands for both total and financial assets are expected to increase continuously until 2030 and the proportion of risky assets in total financial portfolio is expected to decrease continuously again until 2030. Though our analyses produce a reasonable time series patterns of demand for assets, interpretation should be done with some caution. The panel data used in the analysis shows somewhat characteristic patterns different from those found in other countries such as the United States. The most striking feature is that the accumulation of financial assets remains at a remarkably low level in all age groups. Another notable trait of asset holdings in Korea is that the proportion of stock holding individuals is very low and shows the usual inverted U-shape except for a huge jump for the very old (70 or older). If we were to attribute those abnormal patterns of asset holding to backwardness of financial market, projection of future demand for assets should be performed cautiously not to jump at a hurried conclusion entirely based on historic data. The policy implications, therefore, should be drawn based on characteristic feature of asset market in Korea. Low proportion of financial assets in total assets means high proportion of real assets, especially residential properties. While one can explain abnormally low accumulation of financial assets by high housing price and lack of long-term mortgage system, the estimated age profile of asset holdings does not seem to fit into typical age profile found in other countries. Various policy measures should be taken to help individuals transform into more balanced portfolios based on stability and liquidity to assure adequate cash flow to finance old-age consumption. |
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