Introduction

In Korea, the ratio of people over 65 years of age accounts for 7.9 percent of the whole population as of 2002, which means Korea has begun the inevitable trend in becoming an “Aging Society.” In the year 2019, the ratio is forecast to reach 14.4 percent. It took 115 years for France and 71 years for the United States to transition from an aging society to an aged society. Japan, which recorded the fastest rate with 24 years, is now second to Korea with an estimated record of 19 years. This remarkable rate is realized due to an expanded life expectancy and a rapid decrease in birth rates. Unlike the advanced countries, which prepared for such a phenomenon over a long period of time, Korea is at a most urgent state in accommodating its aging society.

The rapidly aging society carries ominous warnings for Korea, something the country has never faced before, such as a decline in growth potential, decrease in the working population, and surging demand for welfare expansion including medical care and old age security, among others. In Korea, with such a short amount of time to prepare for the Aged Society, a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of population aging on various sectors of the economy is urgently needed as the society moves towards an Aged Population.

In early 2004, KDI launched a concerted research project on Population Aging in Korea. Various government-sponsored research institutes such as the Korea Labor Institute (KLI), Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), Korea Institute for Public Finance (KIPF), the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlement (KRIHS), as well as many experts in academia participated in the project to conduct comprehensive and cooperative research on the socio-economic impact of population aging and policy issues. The main objectives of this project are to comprehensively analyze the impacts of rapid population aging in Korea in various sectors including economic growth and the macro economy, labor market, social security system, old age housing, and the government sector, and to review reform proposals necessary for maintaining sustained growth in an forthcoming aged society.

This research on population aging is a three-year project (2004-2006), and the results presented below are the summary of the outcome of research in the first year. This study is comprised of seven volumes. The first summarizes the results of sectoral research in volumes 2 to 7. The second volume, edited by KIHASA, provides an overview of population aging in Korea, and analyzes the low fertility trend. The third volume, edited by KLI, analyzes the impacts of population aging on the labor market and discusses related policy issues. The fourth volume, edited by KIHASA, addresses the issues in the social security system with respect to population aging. The fifth volume, edited by KRIHS, analyzes housing problems for the elderly and discusses policy issues to be dealt with by the government. The fifth volume, edited by KDI, covers the macroeconomic impacts of population aging on growth potential, consumption and savings as well as on financial markets. Lastly, the seventh volume, edited by KIPF, examines the fiscal implications of population aging and subsequent issues in fiscal policy.

I. Analysis on Population Aging and Policy Issues

KIHASA

Despite continuing low fertility, the level of population ageing in Korea has been lower than that of western countries. However, if the recent phenomenon of lower fertility continues, population ageing will accelerate and its negative impact on the social and economic structure will increase. Thus, a recovery in the fertility rate to a certain level as well as preparation for population ageing will be of great importance in the near future.

In an effort to respond to population ageing, it is important to diagnose its features, since any policy established with no basis in accurate analyses can be misleading. Such an effort needs to begin by identifying recent fertility trends and their causes; this will enable us to understand the future direction of fertility change and be a basis for suitable policy responses. From this viewpoint, this study aims to pursue the following: 1) Analyze the level, speed and characteristics of fertility change and identify their causes, 2) Diagnose the level and speed of population ageing with the fertility change, and 3) Elicit the strategies effectively responsive to population ageing.

In making attempts to achieve the goals in this study, a review of preceding studies, population projections, and regression models were applied. Through the population projection, the change in the level and speed of population ageing was analyzed along with assumptions on fertility change and the extent to which fertility, mortality and the population structure would affect population ageing. A regression model was adopted in identifying the socio-economic factors that presumably affect the recent fertility trends. A review of the experiences of OECD countries was conducted to elicit those policies that can be applicable a Korean context.

As a result, demographic causes directing low fertility may be revealed in two ways. First, the age at which a women gets married for the first time has gradually increased, resulting in an increase in the proportion of single women in age brackets where childbearing is highly concentrated. Second, the number of children per married woman has continued to decrease. Moreover, the number of women in a childbearing period is decreasing in an absolute magnitude since the beginning of the 2000s. The volume of women in ages with a high probability of childbearing has already started decreasing. Thus, the decrease in the number of women in a childbearing period, a lowering in the proportion of married women in a marriageable age, and the decrease in marital fertility have simultaneously occurred. Therefore, the prospects are negative for a change in future fertility.

It appeared that such changes in demographic factors were ascribed to a change in socio-economic phenomena and individual values on children and family. The regression model revealed that urbanization; the improvement in women's educational attainment, an increase in labor force participation and proportion of the professional and white-collar workers, the increase of nuclear families, and family dissolution had a negative impact on fertility. Thus, such societal and attitudinal changes may reflect that fertility is unlikely to recovered in the short term.

According to the results of population projections, the level of population ageing will have surpassed that of all OECD members by 2050, on the assumption that the current level of fertility will continue in Korea. Under this assumption, population ageing will be determined by fertility rather than mortality and in a longer period than even the current population structure. Since mortality cannot be easily modified, population ageing in the future will be changed in its level and speed by efforts to recover the fertility level.

OECD members have long experienced low fertility and thereby population ageing has progressed to a considerable level. In response to low fertility and population ageing, many countries have adopted a population policy together with family, gender, welfare, and immigration policies. However, those policies cannot all be considered successful and their executing appeared to put a great burden on finances. Therefore, some countries have reformed their policies related to the fertility.

In learning from the experience of OECD members, a responsive strategy to population ageing must be established by taking into consideration the causes of low fertility and selecting policy tools on a cost-benefit basis carried out in an integrated manner. The response to low fertility may include an increase in family value, accommodation of family formation, encouragement of family expansion, and the strengthening of family protections, which are to be organically interlinked. Such policy tools, to be cost-effective, need to be applied either in a universal approach or in a discriminative manner on criteria such as means testing, birth order, etc.

Together with efforts to recover fertility, responses to the ageing and the non-working population are also important, since the elderly population will increase considerably both in absolute and relative terms. Responses should include the policy of utility for women and the elderly in the labor market. The former should be associated with responses to low fertility; both high fertility and female labor force participation rates need to be achieved, which may be possible by increasing the compatibility between childbearing and the participation of women working outside the home. Increasing the labor participation of the elderly may be important not only in dealing with the labor shortage but in eventually improving their health and welfare.

In conclusion, population ageing should not be considered a social problem but a promising challenge. Population ageing and low fertility cannot be solved in a short period. Although the response needs to be made as promptly as possible, full and well-examined considerations must be taken into account in a long-term framework.

II. Population Aging and the Labor Market

KLI

Korea currently has the youngest population among OECD countries but this is expected to undergo a rapid change as the population ages over the next few decades. Within less than 20 years (in 2020), Korea is expected to become an aged society with a projected old-aged population of over 15% (KNSO, 2001). This will directly impact Korea’s workforce population.

The impact of rapid aging on the labor force would mainly be through the size and composition of the labor force: The size will increase until 2020 but the composition will change only steadily over the next few decades. Along with population aging, the labor force will also be steadily ageing. For instance, the proportion of the aged (50 and over) among the total labor force is projected to increase from about 25% as of 2000 to above 50% by 2050). As has been well-observed in the past experiences of advanced countries, an increasing old-age dependency ratio and ageing of the labor force always proceed hand in hand and as such, have a double negative effect on the economy and society.

One of the economic consequences of slow or negative growth in the labor force would obviously be a slowdown in GDP. According to OECD simulations, under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth could decline by about 1.5% points relative to growth rates of the past two decades. From a policy perspective, a key variable in the future will be in maintaining and prompting a proper level of participation and employment in the old-aged workforce thus responding to an important socio-economic challenge.

The future size of the labor force will not only depend on demographic changes but on age-specific participation rates. Of particular significance will be the effect of old-age participation rates, as that age group will be growing significantly in both relative and absolute size. However, Korea is lucky with regard to this issue because participation rates of the elderly population (especially males) are already high. All that may be required is to maintain current levels, even though there is some scope for increasing female participation rates. But on the micro-level, there is plenty of room for policy initiatives and institutional arrangements to allow for improvements, first, for a more continuous and stable old-age working-life and, second, for a more smooth and normal transition from work to retirement, and a decent post-retirement life.

For the first policy objective, there needs to be more targeted and effective policy initiatives for stable employment of old-aged workers (including measures to help extend the firm-based mandatory retirement age, the provision of incentives for employers to keep their old-aged employees such as wage subsidies for old-aged workers hired, and the creation of alternative employment opportunities for displaced old-aged workers).

(1) Efforts and Measures to Help Extend the Mandatory Retirement Age: These, however, should be pursued, if they intend to be effective, along with the same level of effort and measures to lower increasing costs attached to keeping old-aged employees at the same company for a longer period - the cost- based on a seniority-based wage scheme and tenure-based retirement allowances. These traditionally rigid systems of wage and severance pay, which are disproportionately practiced in large-sized firms and mainly in unionized sectors, are generating external costs too high to be contained within the sector.

And the external costs thus generated end up exerting a negative effect on outsiders (the majority of old-aged workers protected neither by unions nor by formal institutions). That is, in a free labour market, too much protection and rigidity afforded to a selective minority tend to be balanced by lower levels of protection and too much flexibility, enforced on the majority of their own if effective policy interventions do not exist.

(2) Increasing Efficiency of the Employment Stability Programs under an Employment Insurance System (EIS): the lack of decent job opportunities for the old-aged is reflected in the large proportion of the irregular and self-employed in labour force statistics. Among the old-aged that are employed, the majority are either temporary or daily workers, while the majority among the old-aged labour force are self-employed. Under the EIS, an incentive system currently exists for employers to retain or hire old-aged workers. But the system has been assessed as neither efficient nor effective. Currently, government policy seems to have settled on the no-good incentive system and those incentives do not seem to be attractive enough to draw the attention of employers by any measure. The system needs to be redesigned to be more targeted and effective in achieving its intended policy objective.

(3) Promoting a More Decent Post-Retirement Life: For this policy objective, the national pension system needs to be reformed from top-to-bottom and a corporate pension needs to be introduced to supplement the destined-to-be-crippling national pension system even after a serious cutting of future benefits. The role of public-private pensions in sharing needs to be institutionalised in a multi-pillar pension system for old-age income security.

(4) Programs and Institutional Settings for Smooth Transition from Work to Retirement: These need to be properly arranged: Adaptation programs for a smooth transition to retirement, adjustment programs following retirement, etc. for a socially supported transition from work to retirement. Public support for and social cost sharing of smooth transition into post-retirement life should be properly institutionalised. This policy initiative is needed when considering the traditional family-based support system, which will no longer be working in the future. Even if it should be working, those resorting to family support in their old age are the group for whom proper social protections have been long delayed.

III. Population Aging and Health and Welfare Policy

KIHASA

This study is to consider policy issues through an analysis of demand changes in the health care and welfare service sectors, which are raised as a population ages. Repeatedly, one is to consider policy issues in demand changes of the health care sector for the elderly, and in such changes in the welfare service sector for the elderly, women and families.

Major contents are as follows. In relation to the needs of the
elderly health care sector, service utilization of the elderly are relatively higher than younger people because of a high prevalence of acute and chronic medical conditions and a decline in physical and mental functions. Changes in health care service utilization were analyzed in terms of treatment, disease and medical facility types and average length of stay in medical facilities. The composition change of elderly health care expenditures was also analyzed and the concentration phenomenon of those expenditures was reviewed through an analysis of expense levels.

This report needs to quantify long-term care estimated in terms of the experiences of the Japanese long-term care insurance system. In the case of women, the need to try to reduce the care burden by women family members will occur according to the expansion of women’s social participation, which resulted from pervasiveness of gender equality and self-edification. The above welfare needs of the elderly and women have been dealt within the family, but the private care system by means of family members is more and more difficult to continue according to the diversity of family types, such as an increase in one person households or single parent households.

As mentioned above, in addition to elderly health care sector demand changes in relation to long-term care services, as well as the general welfare needs of the elderly and women were analyzed and several policy issues were suggested as way of addressing unmet needs.

IV. Population Aging and Old Age Housing

KRIHS

Korea has already reached an aging society' in 2000, is expected to reach an 'aged society' in 2019, and a 'super aged society' in 2026. Government-supported research institutions are carrying out a large joint project on various 'aging issues' to cope with the impending aging boom.

The study, as one of the micro-approaches of a three-year-project, aims to design housing policies to alleviate problems for senior citizens, one of the most serious problems as a result of an aging population. This year’s study is focusing on analyzing the housing problems of senior citizens and policy measures, and establishing the policy direction and suggesting policy responses to be dealt with by the government.

The 2000 Census for Population and Homes and survey data were used to analyze the housing situation and housing consciousness of senior citizens. Housing policies for senior citizens in foreign countries such as the United States, Japan, and Sweden were reviewed with relevant examples referred to in light of Korean circumstances.

As a result, old age housing is relatively inferior to that of general households. The elderly tend to live densely in old and poorly facilitated housing. This is particularly the case for two-person elderly households.

The number of elderly households is expected to rapidly increase, while their housing situation deteriorates. However, a housing policy for senior citizens has thus far been effective since different government authorities separately regulate both housing and welfare policies without any coordination. Housing policy does not support elderly housing, which is under the jurisdiction of welfare facilities.

This study clarifies the scope of the housing and welfare policies, establishes the housing policy goal for elderly households, classifies the different policy target groups, and suggests policy issues to be solved in a stepwise fashion by the government. The most immediate issue is to establish a soft infrastructure housing policy for seniors including data production, establishing proper institutional systems, and to expand senior housing equipped with senior accessible facilities. Following this, in keeping pace with the progress of the rental housing market, a support system for operating senior rental housing must be prepared and implemented.

V. Population Aging and Macroeconomics

Introduction

This volume deals with the various macroeconomic issues resulting from rapid population aging in Korea. It is comprised of six elements: Potential growth, labor productivity, consumption, national savings, and the financial market and mortgage market. The summary of each chapter is presented.

Chapter 1. Aging and the Potential Growth Rate

Dongseok Kim

The purpose of this research is to estimate the effect of aging on the potential growth rate of Korea. In this research, past growth factors of the Korean Economy were analyzed using the growth accounting method by Hahn, Choi, Kim and Lim (2002), and, by combining the results and the prospective demographical structures; potential growth rates of the Korean economy were estimated between 2003 and 2050. To do this, six scenarios with various fertility rates were created. We estimated the growth rate for each scenario, and their use could determine the effect of aging on the potential growth rate.

The result of the potential growth rate forecast is as follows. If we assume 2% total factor productivity, the potential growth rate of the Korean economy is 5.1% in the 2000s and 4.8% in the 2010s. However, the potential growth rate is expected to decrease after the 2020s and the rate would be at about 3.5% in the 2020s, 2.2% in the 2030s and 1.5% in the 2040s. Examining the result in terms of growth factors, the contribution rate of the employment increase will decline continuously throughout these periods while the contribution rate of capital stock will increase steadily until the 2010s and will begin decreasing after the 2020s. The contribution rate of human capital is expected to decline steadily throughout the periods. When the increased rate of total factor productivity is 1.5%, the potential growth rate is expected to be 0.65% point lower compared with the growth rate of 2.0%.

These days more people are concerned that aging in the demographic structure due to the decrease in fertility rates will greatly impact the potential growth rate of the Korean economy. The government is also making a strong effort to set up policies related to this matter, which are expected to accelerate. But we have to keep in mind that the influence of fertility rate policies would be very different depending on the periods. That is, since higher dependent ratio would have immediate impact on depent ratio, especially young population ratio, it will have a negative effect on potential growth ratio for about 20 years. But the positive effect on employment becomes visible after 20-30 years.

The total factor productivity increase rate in Korea had been high (about 2%) in the 1980s, but low (about 1%) in the 1990s. High total factor productivity is one of the key factors in sustaining continuous economic growth. Policies to increase total factor productivity can be employed in two aspects: 1) In an institutional aspect, the continuous drive of an open world trading system and the reform of various systems can be employed. 2) In technological aspect, extending investments on research and development can be employed.

Chapter 2. Aging Population and Changes in Labor Productivity

Dae-Il Kim

Declining birth rates tend to reduce labor supply and deteriorate labor quality while accelerating population aging on the one hand, while accompanying greater investment in human capital partially offsetting the negative impact of aging on labor quality on the other. Thus the relationship between aging and labor productivity is an empirical question, and this study attempts to predict the level and changes in labor productivity during the next few decades based on estimates on the labor quality of workers from the past decades.

The basic results indicate that the growth in labor productivity is likely to slow down and eventually turn negative. Even the most optimistic scenario shows that labor productivity will start to fall in the 2050s, with the more realistic scenario indicating that labor productivity will stop growing in the mid-2010s. The key determinant of labor productivity turns out to be the quality of human capital, which is shown to have deteriorated in recent years due to lower efficiency in the education system.

Two policy suggestions are readily put forth. First, education policy must turn away from quantitative expansion and put more resources towards improving the quality of education at all levels of education. Second, in order to counteract the decline in both quantity and quality of labor, labor market policy must focus on promoting the labor supply of married women, and especially of married women with higher education whose market participation has been relatively suppressed.

Chapter 3. Aging and Consumption

Chongbum An

This chapter examines the impact of population aging on consumption. Using Korea Labor Panel data, we estimate (empirically) the relationship between a retirement decision and the level of household consumption expenditure in Korea. According to the empirical data, we could find that patterns of early retirement are relatively prevalent in Korea when compared to other industrialized countries. In particular, the timing of retirement is overly concentrated between the ages of 57 to 60.

We also empirically test how retirement decisions affect household consumption expenditure. The results show that consumption levels of average Korean households did not seem to be significantly affected by the retirement of heads of households. The reduction in consumption levels following retirement was not statistically significant when compared to consumption levels before retirement. These findings are consistent with patterns of consumption smoothing, predicted by the Life-Cycle consumption theory. This also implies that the level of household savings will inevitably decrease due to accelerated population ageing in the near future.

In conclusion, the empirical studies in this chapter indicate that the national savings rate is very likely to fall as population ageing not only decreases household savings, but also results in a negative impact on public savings. Thus, to maintain sustained growth in an ageing society, it becomes more important to encourage private and public savings. To this end, fostering private annuity markets, both for corporate and individual annuities, should be made an immediate priority. For the public sector, more policy priorities should be placed on maintaining sound fiscal management through the reforms of various public pension schemes and the reduction of outstanding public debts. Also, as early retirement patterns are more prevalent in Korea, we need to encourage old-age workers to participate in the labor market for longer periods. It requires not only a reduction in incentives for early retirement by reforming public pension schemes, but to also to get rid of various institutional barriers which hinder old-age workers from staying in the labor market for longer periods.

Chapter 4. Aging and National Savings

Hyungpyo Moon

This chapter analyzes the relationship between public pension schemes and national savings. As the National Pension Scheme (NPS) is currently operated on a partially pre-funded base, it may alter the level of national savings by affecting the levels of both household and public savings. Previous empirical tests by Lim and Moon (2004) showed that there is a significant crowding-out effect of public pension schemes on household savings. The estimated substitution effect of public pension schemes on household savings is in between 20 and 60percent, which is consistent with the experiences of developed countries. It is also expected that as participants of the NPS fully understand their expected pension wealth, household savings could decrease further in the future.

Once we accept the empirical results that public pension schemes tend to reduce household savings, the size of national savings (household savings plus public savings) could be affected, ceteris paribus, by the design of the funding policy in the public pension system (funded vs. pay-as-you-go). If the current pre-funded base is maintained in the future, public savings would increase through pension fund accumulation. In this case, national savings would not decrease as much as the reduction in household savings, since the increase in public savings would offset the decrease in household savings. On the other hand, if the pay-as-you-go base were adopted, national savings would decrease since public savings cannot compensate for the decrease in household savings. In this respect, the funded pension system is preferred to the pay-as-you-go system in the sense that the latter will reduce national savings, and thus the level of welfare, unless excess capital accumulation in the economy exists.

In this study, we analyze the potential influence of the NPS on public savings levels. As the current NPS is in its early stage and operated on a partially funded base, the NPS thus far has contributed to the increase in the public savings level despite its structural imbalance. In 2004, it is estimated that the level of public savings increased by 2.7 percent due to an accumulation in the National Pension Fund. However, according to our simulation results, the unfunded actuarial liability (UAL) of the NPS, measured by the Indexed Benefit Obligation method, is expected to grow continuously due to structural flaws in the scheme, with the fund being completely in the early 2040s. Put differently, the NPS will have a negative impact on the level of public savings in the future as the scheme moves towards a pay-as-you-go base. Thus, structural reform of the NPS is urgently required in order to minimize its negative impacts on national savings to maintain sustained growth through proper productive capital accumulation in an aging society.

Chapter 5. Aging and the Role of Financial Markets in Korea

So Young Kim

This paper measures the role of financial markets and empirically examines the effects of population aging on the role of financial markets using Korean regional data. The role of financial markets is categorized into two aspects – the role of capital markets and the role of credit markets. Mutual insurance (ex- ante) across states of nature against idiosyncratic risks is defined as risk sharing, and this is often called the role of capital markets in literature.

Diversification (ex- post) of idiosyncratic consumption changes across time is defined as inter-temporal consumption smoothing, and this is called the role of credit markets in literature. In this paper, the two roles are separately measured and the effects of population aging on two roles are examined.

The main findings are summarized as follows. The role of financial markets is smaller among Korean regions than among US states and OECD countries. In particular, the role of capital markets in Korean regions is far smaller than in US states, and even smaller than that among OECD countries. Since the capital market’s role is more fundamental than the role of credit markets, the result shows the backwardness of Korean financial markets. On the other hand, population aging decreases the role of credit markets significantly. As a population ages, savings and the supply of loan funds drop, which makes the inter-temporal trade difficult and decreases the role of credit markets. Although it is found that the role of capital markets is not significantly affected by population aging in the short run, we cannot exclude the possibility that population aging negatively affects the role of capital markets in the long run.

The proper role of financial markets becomes more and more necessary in order to stabilize income and consumption risks as the population ages. However, the current role of financial markets is low and the role of credit markets decreases as a population ages. Therefore, it is important for the government to make various efforts to increase the role of financial markets.

Chapter 6. Aging and the Housing Finance Market in Korea

Chang Gyun Park

Experiencing an unparalleled progress in aging, Korean consumers and policymakers have recently paid lots of attention to reverse mortgages as useful to secure steady cash flow for the elderly who possess their own house. The paper examines two aspects of reverse mortgages in the Korean context; economic viability of the reverse mortgage as a financial product and policy measures necessary to assist in the successful launching of reverse mortgage.

Considering the earnings profile and asset holdings of the elderly, we draw the conclusion that there exists enough demand for reverse mortgages and potential economic benefits stemming from facilitating inter-temporal consumption smoothing. An analysis based on old age household data collected from the Household Expenditure Survey conducted by the Korea Statistical Office every five year shows that the average homeowner older than 65 years of age in 2000 would have enjoyed an approximately 30% higher income stream with a reverse mortgage. In the other analysis employing data from the Census conducted in 2000, we estimate the potential market size for reverse mortgages reaching 200,000 units nationwide.

Due to atypical risk factors such as longevity, crossover and maintenance risks along with ordinary risk factors attached to other financial products, reverse mortgages pose an almost insurmountable obstacle in risk management to financial companies involved. It is generally agreed that market failure implied by reverse mortgages is so severe that correctional intervention by the government is required for the market to work properly. Following best practices found in the US reverse mortgage market, this paper suggests that both public and private sectors contribute to successful launching of reverse mortgages based on comparative advantage. The public sector should offer insurance for reverse mortgage and secondary market for loans based on reverse mortgages. Meanwhile, the private sector should take the initiative in assessing the merits of loan applications and decisions along with administrative services during the life span of loan contracts.

VI. Population Aging and Public Finance

KIPF

This study examines fiscal implications of population aging and subsequent issues in fiscal policy. We first present a simple framework explaining the effect of demographic changes on fiscal expenditures, and make long-term projections by 2070 on age-specific spending such as public pensions, National Health Insurance (NHI), welfare spending on the elderly, and education. The projections also cover fiscal expenditures for the long-term care program. When it comes to population projections, this study uses the new 2004 population projections by the KIHASA (Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs).

By utilizing projections in each area, the study forecasts total public expenditure and fiscal balance. The public expenditure in this study includes the NHI as well as the consolidated budget. The study assumes expenditures in other areas that are not specifically dealt with in this study maintain the current ratio to GDP.

As demographic changes continue, it is highly likely that public expenditures will greatly increase. Thus, this study analyzes how this increase would change year to year, and how differences in assumptions and policy changes would affect the expenditure projection. We also analyze the trend of an increase in past public expenditures and compare current levels with those in other countries to determine the characteristics of spending size for each area. We consider how such characteristics can be translated into projections for future spending. In addition, projections on expenditure with those of other countries are compared, to evaluate the shape of the fiscal situation in Korea in the future. Based on these analyses and outcomes, this study makes implications on fiscal policy.

발간사

제１장 서 언

제２장 인구고령화와 잠재성장률

　제1절 연구의 목적
　제2절 연구방법론
　　1. 성장요인 분석
　　2. 잠재산출량 및 잠재성장률 추정
　　3. 향후의 잠재성장률 전망
　제3절 1980～2003년 한국경제의 성장요인 분석
　　1. 취업자수 추이
　　2. 인적자본지수 추정
　　3. 자본스톡 추정
　　4. 성장요인 분석
　　5. 잠재 GDP
　제4절 잠재성장률 전망
　　1. 인구전망
　　2. 취업자수 전망
　　3. 인적자본지수 전망
　　4. 저축률, 투자, 자본스톡 및 잠재성장률 전망
　제5절 결론 및 정책적 시사점
　참고문헌

제3장 인구고령화와 노동생산성의 변화

　제1절 서 론
　제2절 고령화, 노동생산성 및 고학력화
　제3절 세대별 노동생산성 측정 모형과 추정결과
　　1. 임금 근로자 생산성 추정 모형과 가정
　　2. 임금 근로자와 자영업 근로자의 비교
　　3. 근로자 기본 능력의 측정
　제4절 노동공급 측면에서의 생산성 추이 예측
　제5절 결론 및 정책적 시사점
　참고문헌

제４장 인구고령화와 소비

　제1절 서 론
　　1. 문제제기
　　2. 연구의 구성
　제2절 고령화와 소비, 저축, 부의 축적에 관한 연구
　　1. 고령화와 소비
　　2. 은퇴와 은퇴 전후 소비의 상호작용
　제3절 한국 고령화와 소비에 대한 자료 분석
　　1. 분석자료 및 용어 정의
　　2. 연령증가에 따른 경상소득 및 총소비의 변화
　　3. 가구주의 은퇴와 소득 및 소비변화
　제4절 조기은퇴와 은퇴 전후 소비변화
　　1. 가설 설정
　　2. 분석모형
　　3. 자료 및 변수
　　4. 추정결과
　제5절 주요국과의 비교 및 정책시사점
　　1. 은퇴 전후 소비변화
　　2. 조기은퇴와 은퇴 전후 소비변화
　제6절 결론 및 정책시사점
　참고문헌

제５장 인구고령화와 저축: 국민연금을 중심으로

　제1절 연구의 목적
　제2절 국민연금과 가계저축
　　1. 국민연금의 가계저축에 대한 영향
　　2. 실증적 연구
　제3절 국민연금과 정부저축
　　1. 국민연금의 정부저축에 대한 영향
　　2. 국민연금기금의 변화추이
　제4절 책임준비금의 추계 및 전망
　　1. 책임준비금의 개념
　　2. 추정방법
　　3. 책임준비금 추정결과
　　4. 결과의 해석
　　5. 요약 및 정책적 시사점
　참고문헌
【부 록】 국민연금 재정수지 및 책임준비금의 시뮬레이션 결과

제６장 인구고령화와 금융시장의 역할

　제1절 서 론
　제2절 인구고령화와 금융시장의 역할
　　1. 인구고령화의 현황
　　2. 인구고령화와 금융시장의 역할
　제3절 연구방법
　　1. 금융시장의 역할에 대한 문헌
　　2. 금융시장의 역할 추정
　　3. 인구고령화의 영향 추정
　　4. 자 료
　제4절 결과 분석
　　1. 금융시장의 역할 추정
　　2. 인구고령화의 영향
　제5절 결론 및 정책적 시사점
　참고문헌

제７장 인구고령화와 주택금융: 역저당 상품을 중심으로

　제1절 서 론
　제2절 역저당 상품론
　　1. 역저당의 개념과 형태
　　2. 각국의 역저당 상품
　제3절 역저당 도입의 필요성과 경제적 효과
　　1. 역저당 도입의 필요성
　　2. 역저당의 소득보조효과 및 잠재 시장규모 추정
　제4절 역저당 상품 도입을 위한 정책 과제
　　1. 역저당에 대한 기본 시각 정립
　　2. 공공부문과 민간부문의 역할분담체계 정립
　　3. 소비자 보호를 위한 제도적 장치
　제5절 결 론
　참고문헌