KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

KDI FOCUS Reforming Korea’s Wholesale Electricity Market amid Renewable Expansion

As the share of variable renewable energy such as solar and wind rises rapidly, ensuring adequate investment in facilities that prevent outages and maintain reliable supply has become more important. Yet, Korea’s wholesale electricity market relies on rigid pricing rules that fail to provide appropriate investment incentives, delaying the expansion of required resources. It is therefore desirable to reform the pricing framework so that market prices reflect demand and supply conditions effectively as signals for investment and system operation.

- The growing share of renewables raises the question of whether the current wholesale market framework can continue to reliably meet power demand.

- As the renewable share grows and output varies with weather conditions, the electricity system is experiencing greater volatility.

- Renewable expansion is a factor increasing output variability in existing power facilities.

- Reduced utilization of existing generating facilities, limited transmission capacity, and curtailed renewable output indicate declining
efficiency in the wholesale electricity market.

- Investment in new flexibility resources, including ESS, requires appropriate price mechanisms.

- The wholesale electricity market should be designed to reliably meet projected demand while minimizing costs.

- To achieve this, Korea’s wholesale market compensates separately for energy supply, standby capacity, and frequency and voltage control.

- Rising renewable shares erode the profitability of existing generators and increase uncertainty, weakening their incentives to maintain capacity.

- Ensuring a stable electricity supply requires stronger investment incentives for new generation capacity.

- Capacity prices fall when SMP rises, for instance, due to higher natural gas prices.

- SMP, which reflects shortrun variable (fuel) costs, does not serve as an effective market signal for efficient system operation.

- Capacity prices based on fixed investment cost assessments fail to reflect technological and market developments.

- The rigid capacity pricing structure can hinder efforts to secure sufficient reserve capacity as renewable shares expand.

- By tying a fixed compensation pool to last year’s supply, ancillary service prices fall counterintuitively when demand rises.

- Rigid pricing mechanisms risk delaying investment in facilities critical to system flexibility and stability.

- Reforms should enable energy, capacity, and ancillary service prices to be determined by market mechanisms.

- Strengthening market oversight through an independent regulator should be accompanied by efforts to bring wholesale and retail pricing into closer alignment.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Impact of Global Trade Fragmentation on South Korea’s Exports: The U.S-China Trade War and Policy Insights

This study analyzes the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on third-country exports to the U.S. and China, focusing on South Korea. Using tariff change data that occurred during the 2018~19 US-China trade war, it estimates product-level elasticities of substitution, i.e., tariff cross-elasticities, and investigates their determinants across countries, industries, and products. This analysis elucidates the heterogeneous effects of the trade war, informing policies to seize new export opportunities amid ongoing global trade fragmentation.

The results show that Korea’s tariff cross-elasticities toward the U.S., relative to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, were generally positive, implying that higher U.S. tariffs tend to boost Korean exports to the U.S. In contrast, the elasticity toward China, relative to Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports, was negative on average, suggesting that increased Chinese tariffs tend to reduce Korea’s exports to China. Comparing predicted and actual export changes reveals a potential underestimation bias in the regression model.

Decomposing the determinants of tariff cross-elasticities into country, industry, and product factors reveals the significance of country-specific elements for exports to the U.S. and China, with industry factors also exhibiting relevance for exports to the U.S. In the case of Korea, tariff elasticities were higher in high-tech, capital-intensive, or export-integrated industries.

Additionally, analysis of Korean manufacturing shows that industries with economies of scale reduced production costs and expanded output during the trade war. Zooming into factors for economies of scale, capital-intensive industries with prior investments saw increased value-added, expanded investment, and lower costs. Export-integrated industries exhibited similar positive outcomes.

Lastly, simulations based on the estimated elasticities project that four U.S.-China tariff scenarios increase Korea’s exports to the U.S. by 0.1% to 7.0%, depending on the extent of U.S. tariff changes on Chinese imports. In a severe scenario where both countries impose roughly 10%p additional tariffs on all bilateral imports, Korea's exports are projected to rise by about 4.7% to the U.S. and 9.1% to China.

These findings inform policy decisions for Korea to navigate global trade changes, such as the U.S.-China trade war, by prioritizing targeted support for high-tech and capital-intensive industries and bolstering investment and export infrastructure to enhance resilience and capture emerging export opportunities.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Electricity Market Segmentation with Uncertainty in Demand and Supply

This study examines the structural limitations of Korea’s electricity market amid the growing share of renewable energy and seeks approaches to modify the market structure to facilitate a low-carbon transition. Korea’s electricity market currently functions as a cost-based, day-ahead market, which constrains its ability to manage supply-demand imbalances effectively as renewable energy rises. To address this, the study evaluates the necessity of introducing a capacity market as a forward mechanism, combined with generation-specific segmentation. A capacity market, in particular, is identified as a key tool to provide stable investment incentives for marginal generators, especially as the share of high-volatility resources like renewables increases, thus enhancing supply stability. Additionally, the study highlights the need to adjust capacity prices dynamically according to the market share of renewables and energy storage systems(ESS). In considering policies to support renewables and ESS, the study contrasts fixed-price contracts with dedicated capacity markets. While fixed-price contracts are vital in the short term to encourage market entry, it is equally important, in the long run, to operate the spot market in a technology-neutral manner to alleviate excessive risk burdens on wholesale market buyers. These insights offer policy recommendations to maintain a stable power supply and support the sustainable expansion of renewable energy.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Empirical Study on the Growth of Korea’s Cultural Content Industry and Policy Implications

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the growth dynamics of South Korea's cultural content industry to enhance its competitiveness and support sustainable development. Employing a multifaceted empirical approach, it examines quantitative metrics―such as the number of businesses, employment levels, revenue, and trade flows―across the industry and its subsectors to identify growth trajectories and structural characteristics (Chapters 3 and 4).

Given the industry's complex interdependence with other sectors, this study combines data from the "Special Classification of the Content Industry" (Statistics Korea, Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism), the "Korean Standard Industrial Classification (KSIC)" (Statistics Korea), and the "Input-Output Tables" (Bank of Korea). This integration creates a new input-output table that captures 12 subsectors of the cultural content industry (Chapter 5).

The study uses the new input-output table to examine supply, demand, and input structures to illuminate the industry's economic roles and inter-industry linkages. Key metrics―including total output ratio, import dependency, intermediate input structure, and value-added ratio―are compared with other sectors to highlight the distinctive characteristics (Chapter 6). The study further investigates the sector's effects on the broader economy, calculating coefficients for input, production induction, and sensitivity, assessing the sector's overall impact via inter-industry ties and interactions (Chapter 7).

In recognition that individual businesses drive the industry's growth, this study identifies business growth enablers within the CPND framework (Content, Platform, Network, and Device). They include intellectual property ownership, workforce size, operational tenure, market diversification, and digital infrastructure. This analysis highlights the critical impact of IP rights―especially utility patents and copyrights―on competitiveness and revenue growth (Chapter 8).

Moreover, the study systematically evaluates relevant policies through a descriptive statistical analysis of 149 support programs managed by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism and the Korea Creative Content Agency (KOCCA), focusing on their primary functions and target groups (Chapter 9). Finally, building on the study's findings, key policy directions are proposed: fostering digital adaptability among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), enhancing IP protection in the digital era, diversifying export markets, and addressing regional disparities to ensure balanced development across Korea (Chapters 10).

Summary

KDI FOCUS The Ascent of K-Content: Industry Structure and Growth Drivers

Korea’s cultural content industry has seen rapid growth. Key drivers include improved content quality, a maturing digital ecosystem, and increasingly interconnected business networks. As the industry takes on a more prominent role in the national economy―generating a significant production inducement effect―policy efforts should focus on strengthening copyright protection and enforcement, advancing digital transformation among small and midsize firms, and diversifying export markets through deeper industry linkages.

- This paper analyzes the structural changes and growth trajectory of Korea’s content industry, assesses its economic impact, and identifies key drivers of firm-level growth.

- The industry composition is shifting toward digital content production and online distribution.

- Knowledge information has been the largest contributor to sales growth in the content industry.

- Content exports reached $12.45 billion in 2021, continuing a streak of record highs since data collection began.

- Rising domestic production capacity and declining reliance on foreign content have boosted net exports of K-content, contributing to a surplus in intellectual property trade.

- The content industry shows higher self-input coefficients than most service industries and even some manufacturing industries.

- The content industry has grown through close integration with the diverse industries comprising the CPND value chain.

- One unit increase in final demand in the content industry generates 1.572 units of output across all industries―64% within and 36% in other sectors.

- In 2020, the total production inducement effect of the content industry amounted to 113.7 trillion won.

- The content industry’s power dispersion index ranks 19th of 33, placing it in the mid-range.

- The content industry demonstrates aboveaverage sensitivity, highlighting the need for industrial and policy responses to external market changes.

- K-content has solidified its position in global markets through high production quality and artistic merit.

- Changes in CPND factors can also significantly influence the growth of content firms.

- Copyrights increase firm revenue by 11.6%, playing a key role in revenue generation by protecting creative works.

- Development of platforms, networks, and digital devices has also contributed significantly to growth in the content industry.

- Expanding sales channels improves market access and exposure to diverse customer segments. Overseas expansion helps broaden the consumer base and stabilize firm revenue.

- Engagements with content firms generate over twice the revenue growth compared to noncontent firms.

- Copyright acquisition and protection should be embedded across the entire support system for content firms.

- Promoting digital transformation―paired with measures to enhance adaptability―can help steer policy in a more strategic direction for small and midsize content firms.

- The government should systematically develop region-specific entry strategies through the K-Content Export Council.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Strategies for Upscaling Regional Innovation Clusters: Empricial Analysis and Case Studies

This study investigates the growth dynamics of businesses within regional clusters through empirical analysis and identifies the success factors of regional innovation clusters through case studies. Adopting a practical approach, the empirical analysis uses the data from industrial complexes―recognized as the foundation of Korea’s industrial cluster policy―in connection with the establishment level data from Mining and Manufacturing Survey. The empirical analysis addresses three questions: (1) Do businesses within clusters demonstrate superior growth performance compared to those outside? (2) What specific attributes of cluster-based businesses contribute to their growth patterns? In particular, do they demonstrate linkages with regional innovation capacity? (3) How does cluster membership influence recovery from economic crises such as the global financial crisis?

The case studies focus on Pangyo Techno Valley and the Wonju Medical Device Industry Cluster, analyzing their current status, success factors, and challenges to derive policy insights.

Key findings and policy implications are summarized as follows:

First, businesses located in industrial complexes outperform those outside both in employment and production. According to the analysis model, the businesses in industrial complexes demonstrated approximately 3~5% additional growth in employment, production, and value-added during the investigated period. This trend is consistent across most types of industrial complexes. However, their performance shows no significant correlation with the region’s innovation capacity, suggesting limited impact from the collaboration with regional innovation actors on business outcomes.

Second, there are no additional effects from the government’s cluster policies, such as Free Economic Zones and Research and Development (R&D) Special Zones, at least within the scope of the empirical analysis. While further research is needed, these findings indicate that overlapping designations and investments may dilute the effectiveness of existing cluster policies, calling for more cautious and strategic planning in future cluster policy implementation. As the Korean government is introducing Opportunity Development Zones, it should evaluate the effectiveness of previous policies and better utilize already-invested resources by connecting with existing clusters.

Third, businesses within regional clusters exhibit stronger recovery from external shocks, such as economic crises, than those outside. This advantage appears to stem from the agglomeration of industries within clusters, facilitating information sharing and access to resources. These attributes are noteworthy for building sustainable and resilient regional economic ecosystems. Moreover, the case studies reveal that the establishment and development of regional innovation clusters rely on key success factors, including leadership by regional stakeholders and the capacity to develop and manage these clusters―specifically, planning led by local actors, tight-knit collaboration among innovation actors, and cooperative governance to mobilize resources. While generalizing these findings requires caution, they provide valuable insights for fostering successful regional innovation clusters.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Path to National Champions: Transforming Support Policies for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)

South Korea’s ‘national champion policy,’ designed to foster global enterprises, has yet to deliver measurable outcomes in sales and productivity, suggesting inefficiencies in resource allocation linked to ‘the risk of picking winners.’ Accordingly, the incentive structure of growth policies for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) needs an operational shift, moving away from conventional subsidy assistance toward a bespoke model that integrates private investment, consulting, and networks to address their business challenges collaboratively. Furthermore, in order to enhance policy accountability and effectiveness, it is crucial to consolidate support details and performance outcomes while ensuring transparency through public disclosure.

- Amid intensifying competition for technological dominance, advanced countries are stepping up the reintroduction of targeted industrial policy to concentrate support in specific industries or firms.

- Korea provides substantial subsidies to firms through its national champion policy, but studies on its effectiveness remain limited.

- This study analyzes the effectiveness of Korea’s national champion policy and offers recommendations for improvement by comparing its operational approach with those of other countries.

- Korea’s flagship national champion policy program, World Class 300, provided targeted annual subsidies to 30~56 firms selected through a government-led process.

- The declining share of high-growth firms led to a large drop in the number of firms satisfying WC300’s sales growth criterion, making it harder to identify eligible firms.

- An analysis of WC300 outcomes reveals no significant impact on sales, value-added, or productivity, suggesting that resources may have been allocated to firms misaligned with the project’s objectives.

- Korea’s national champion policy aims to foster innovation and promote exports among SMEs to drive growth and job creation.

- However, concentrating resources on less competitive firms through selective support risks undermining economic efficiency and distorting market dynamics.

- Relational support is likely more effective than transactional support for high-potential firms.

- Effective business growth support requires tailored assistance that meets the diverse needs across the growth stages of individual firms rather than focusing on a single activity.

- The time has come for Korea to shift gears in its national champion

- To enhance the effectiveness of the national champion policy, its framework―including firm selection and support measures―should transition to a private-sector-led approach.

- Enhancing policy accountability and effectiveness requires centralized management of support details and performance data alongside transparent public disclosure.

- Given the low incentives for actively restructuring government support projects, institutionalizing independent evaluations is crucial for improving future outcomes.

- New policy initiatives should operate systematic pilot programs to enhance effectiveness.

Summary

Policy Study KOR National Champions and Industrial Policy: An Examination of the Effectiveness of Picking Winners Strategy in Industrial Policy

Amidst evolving industrial environments characterized by intensified technological supremacy competition and the transition to carbon neutrality, targeted industrial policies are re-emerging as a significant tool for major countries. This study focuses on the national champion policy, a key instrument of targeted industrial policy. Specifically, it analyzes the effectiveness of South Korea's 'World Class 300' project. In addition, it draws implications from international policy cases for creating national champions. The aim of this study is to propose improvement measures for designing effective targeted industrial policies.

Chapter 2 examines the status and role of targeted industrial policies within the conceptual framework of industrial policy and introduces the current policies in Korea. It also discusses the effectiveness of targeted industrial policies. Chapter 3 reviews Korea’s industrial growth trajectories over the past decade by analyzing corporate activities and productivity patterns by industry and firm size. Chapter 4 assesses the effectiveness of national champion policy, focusing on the World Class 300 project as a representative case. It provides an overview of the implementation processes and analyzes the project's effectiveness. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses implications from similar international policy cases and proposes improvement measures for targeted industrial policies.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Economic Security and Strategies to Strengthen Supply Chains

On top of the US-China strategic competition, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate crisis, and rising geopolitical risks have pushed economic security and supply chain policies to the forefront of policy dialogue in South Korea. This study examines the factors behind the growing importance of economic security and response measures from geo-economic and traditional economics perspectives, along with analyses of case studies in key sectors. The primary aim of this research is to identify strategies to enhance Korea's economic security.

The policy directions regarding Korea’s economic security presented in this study are as follows: First, Korea should build upon its manufacturing capabilities in advanced industries and actively foster related cutting-edge technologies to secure strategic advantages. To achieve this, industrial policies should be more closely integrated, and supply chain vulnerabilities should be mitigated particularly by reducing dependence on China.

Second, simple localization or domestication of intermediate goods suppliers should be avoided. Instead, the Korean government should actively participate in international joint investment and R&D cooperation to support private-sector investments for diversifying supply chains.

Third, the strategy of large enterprises sharing technological know-how with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with similar technological development goals has been a key driver of Korea’s high localization rate and international competitiveness in the display industry. Therefore, in promoting the localization of advanced strategic sectors, the government should enhance support for improving the technological capabilities of domestic supply chain firms. Moreover, industry associations should establish various mechanisms and channels to strengthen collaboration between advanced industries firms and supply chain firms.

Fourth, a stable supply of mineral resources urgently requires investment in R&D, international cooperation, and the mobilization of financial resources for large-scale investments. Expanding R&D in mineral resource development technologies and leveraging these efforts as a platform for international cooperation should be prioritized. Additionally, concrete strategies for securing financial resources to support large-scale investments should be explored.

Fifth, when supply chain crises in advanced strategic industries pose risks that can potentially escalate to national crisis level, it is critical to consider adopting the 'emergency acquisition flexibilities' strategy used in defense material procurement. To this end, existing systems should be restructured to enable rapid procurement and response, ensuring greater resilience in times of crisis.

Sixth, to enhance the competitiveness of advanced strategic industries, priority should be placed on expanding power generation capacity through targeted investments in energy infrastructure. Simultaneously, measures such as connecting and expanding power grids, developing smart grids, and diversifying energy resources to improve efficiency should be pursued. As for water resource infrastructure, ensuring quantitative stability requires the multipurpose use of existing infrastructure, the activation of alternative water resources, and the construction of new water resource infrastructure. Additionally, strengthening technological capabilities through localization efforts is essential to securing a stable supply of ultrapure water.

Last but not least, prompt establishment and implementation of a national logistics strategy is required to adapt to changes in the global logistics network. This strategy should focus on securing overseas networks and global logistics hubs, as well as fostering globally competitive logistics companies, and enhancing adaptability to shifts in the logistics environment.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Impact of Carbon-Neutrality Policies:Focusing on Trade and Environment

This study examines the impact of carbon neutrality policies on Korea and explores potential government responses to the rapidly evolving global policy landscape concerning carbon and trade. Specifically, it focuses on the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and how South Korea's carbon neutrality policies might influence the CBAM's impact. In addition, it analyzes the effects of each carbon neutrality policy option on Korea’s economy, including trade and GDP, and emissions.

This study finds that the EU CBAM may not affect Korean exports due to its relatively narrow scope of products and emissions covered in the current version of the policy. However, its influence is likely to grow if the scope of regulated products expands and the range of indirect emissions covered increases. The study then considers carbon pricing, green technology R&D, and green supply chain policies as strategic directions for Korea's government to both respond to global policy changes, such as CBAM, and achieve climate neutrality. Although both increasing carbon prices and developing carbon reduction technologies mitigate the negative impacts of CBAM by decreasing CBAM tariff rates, their effects on Korea's production, exports, income, and welfare differ.

Green supply chain policies involve adjusting trade costs according to the carbon intensity and price of intermediate inputs’ origins. This aims to reduce production's embedded indirect emissions and increase the carbon price already paid in source countries. The study evaluates two opposing approaches to implementing this policy: lowering trade costs for 'green' suppliers and raising them for 'dirty' suppliers. The results indicate that decreasing trade costs, as opposed to increasing them, results in higher GDP, greater export competitiveness, and improved welfare. The study shows that although different policy options are themselves effective in responding to CBAM and reducing carbon emissions in Korea overall, their impact on Korea’s economy and emissions are heterogeneous. Therefore, understanding the complex consequences of these policies and selectively implementing them based on the distinct characteristics of the affected industries is crucial.

SITEMAP

HOT ISSUE

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary