KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas - Public and Private Infrastructure Investment

Summary

Policy Study KOR Study on Bottom-up Investment Appraisal Methodology under Uncertainty of Costs and Benefits: Focusing on Economic Feasibility Analysis of Preliminary Feasibility Study for Road Sector

Transportation investment projects rely on accurate predictions of benefits and costs as fundamental data to determine the feasibility of the project. These predictions also serve as important information to evaluate the investment's effectiveness and the level of fees. However, the predicted values of benefits and costs have become increasingly uncertain due to various factors, such as changes in population demographics, the emergence of new transportation modes, and changes in travel behavior. Despite this growing uncertainty, the current feasibility evaluation methods fail to reflect this uncertainty in predicted benefits and costs.

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the uncertainty of predicted traffic volume, costs, and benefits in the preliminary feasibility study of Korean roads, and to propose the need for a new economic feasibility evaluation method that can explore various alternatives for proceeding with the project in the face of such uncertainty, not only for determining whether or not to proceed with the project.

The uncertainty of future predicted traffic volume was characterized using a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model composed of the growth rate( ) and volatility() of traffic volume changes for road projects that underwent preliminary feasibility studies. For the uncertainty of predicted traffic volume during the first year after the project's opening, a Gaussian mixture model probability distribution was considered. The uncertainty of cost predictions was characterized using a Frechet probability distribution, and the uncertainty of benefit predictions was characterized using a regression model using traffic volume and total project costs.

An analysis of the uncertainty of the economic feasibility results in preliminary feasibility studies of road projects revealed that the probability of predicted benefits presented in the preliminary feasibility report being larger than the benefits predicted through simulations was only 0.195, indicating that the benefits presented in the report were likely to be overestimated. In terms of costs, the probability of predicted costs through simulations being higher than the predicted costs presented in the preliminary feasibility report was as high as 0.588.

In summary, the economic feasibility results presented in the preliminary feasibility study were found to be vulnerable to the uncertainty of benefit realization and the possibility of cost increases, indicating that they are not robust. Although the BCR 1.0, which is the feasibility evaluation index for the target project, was provided in the preliminary feasibility study, the simulation analysis showed that the probability of the BCR being equal to or greater than 1 was only 0.048. In particular, the median and mean of the target project's BCR analyzed through simulation were 0.632 and 0.627, respectively.

Therefore, it is deemed necessary to introduce a bottom-up approach to economic feasibility analysis that can identify the factors that influence the economic feasibility results under the uncertainty of traffic volume, cost, and benefit predictions, in addition to the traditional economic feasibility analysis method that uses specific predicted values for traffic volume, cost, and benefit. This bottom-up approach can propose alternative business plans to achieve the investment goal set by the transportation project and assess the probability of achieving the goal with the current business plan, as well as suggest alternative business plans that can secure the investment goal set by the transportation project.

The introduction of a bottom-up approach to economic feasibility analysis proposed in this study is expected to enhance the primary function of feasibility analysis, which emphasizes efficient investment in the future. Through the introduction of the bottom-up approach, it is expected that project plans and contents can be prepared in advance to respond to the risks and negative effects that the investment may bring. In addition, it is anticipated that preparing alternatives for the risks and negative effects of the project in advance can also serve as a means to encourage the opinions and participation of not only feasibility analysis experts, but also the general public.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR A Study on Local Acceptance of Renewable Energy Installations: Focusing on Externalities

By providing externality estimates, and analyzing the determinants of the time period for renewable project preparation, this study aims to contribute to rationalizing measures for improving the local acceptance of renewable-energy power plants. To that end, the analysis is divided into three main parts. Chapter 2 reviews contemporary literature to identify the elements that form local acceptance and summarizes Korea’s key policies in relation to local acceptance before presenting two major empirical analyses. Chapter 3 quantitatively estimates the externality of renewable energy capacities―a source of many community-level complaints―in order to provide empirical findings for the rationalization of regulations and incentives. Chapter 4 empirically analyzes the causes of delays during a project preparation period, and verifies the impact of factors that form local acceptance, including the externalities. Based on the above analyses, Chapter 5 summarizes the results and draws on the policy implications.

Chapter 2 examines preceding studies and finds the main determinants of local acceptance of renewable energy capacities to be 1) the costs of negative externalities borne by individuals and; 2) fairness issues with respect to spatial proximity and fair procedures. This is followed by a review of major policies designed to improve local acceptance which are divided into three main types: i) site standards such as separation distance regulations implemented by local governments; ii) compensation strategies for local residents who are directly affected including support programs under the Act on Assistance to Electric Power Plants-neighboring Areas and the benefit-sharing schemes at individual power plant projects; and iii) project procedures such as locating planning systems that aim to guarantee fairness. Reviewing these policies, this chapter confirms that, in order to enhance the effectiveness of relevant measures designed to improve local acceptance, it needs to understand the factors that cause delays in project planning as well as on the negative externalities on areas near plants.

Chapter 3 attempts to estimate the scale of the externalities through the difference-in-differences method under the hedonic model after identifying negative externalities from solar and wind plants, respectively. In this analysis, the treatment effect on housing prices is defined as the effect of the ‘aggregate capacities within a 2km of each house at the time of its transaction.’ The unique housing transaction dataset, covering the period 2006-2019, is used, as well as the size and location of renewable plants in operation during the period. To minimize possible interference from other energy sources, the regional scope for the estimation was narrowed to area where each type of plants is concentrated: Jeollabuk-do, Jeollanam-do, and Gwangju-si for solar farms, and Gangwon-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Ulsan-si for wind farms. Key analysis findings confirmed that both solar and wind capacities produced negative externalities in the vicinity. In addition, the effective radius and size of the externalities were found to vary from each other.

Chapter 4 outlines the typical process of large-scale renewable energy projects, including licensing/permits. As a new attempt, a survival analysis was carried out based on the information on the duration of the project preparation―the time period taken to start operations after being permitted. In doing so, explanatory variables reflecting the determinants of local acceptance are set where, in particular, based on the analysis results of Chapter 3, explanatory variables for the environmental impacts are included. The analysis utilized the data on project details and related regional characteristics of 390 solar and wind projects of which installed capacities are over 3MW and for which business permits are obtained during 2004-March 2020. According to the analysis higher capacities entail more delays, and this pattern can be observed in both solar and wind projects. In the case of large-scale solar energy projects (e.g., capacities exceeding 50MW), it was confirmed that the preparation period takes significantly longer when there are more housing within the 2-5km radius which has little relevance to direct externality.

The policy implications are summarized in Chapter 5. Factors that have a major impact on the local acceptance of renewable energy projects can be largely divided into i) ‘negative externalities that occur disproportionately according to proximity’ and ii) ‘fairness in procedures related to community participation,’ where the latter is associated with broader geographic proximity. To substantially improve local acceptance, a dual strategy can be useful. It entails government supports that compensate environmental effects for local residents who are directly exposed to the externalities, in collaboration with benefit-sharing schemes that induce participations of local residents with a wider geographical area. More specific policy suggestions are two-fold: i) support programs for neighboring areas under the Act on Assistance to Electric Power Plants-neighboring Areas need to provide concentrated assistance to a narrower scope of targets than the current 5km. In the case of the benefit-sharing approaches, participation should be facilitated by sharing necessary information on the revenue generation mechanism and by broadening the spatial scope eligible for participation.

Summary

KDI Policy Forum Analysis and Implications of the Determinants of CIRR for the Seamless Execution of PPP Projects

■ The contracted internal rate of return (CIRR) of Korea's public-private-partnership (PPP) projects does not properly reflect the risks associated with the different types and characteristics of facilities and government support. Rather, the rates are set at the same level as similar preceding projects.

- The characteristics of a project, e.g. facility type, amount of private investment, and operation period, and the ensuing risks are not sufficiently reflected in the decisions over CIRR. Moreover, the construction subsidy―a government risk-sharing and support policy―inadequately contributes to lowering the rate.

- The project review period and VfM test do not have a meaningful effect on determining the CIRR, implying that project evaluations and analyses need to be improved.

■ For the seamless execution and invigoration of PPP projects and lower user fees, the CIRR must be fixed at an appropriate level through more active negotiations and efforts in addition to taking the CIRR of similar existing PPP projects into account.

- A significantly low CIRR relative to the risks could diminish the incentive to privately invest or could even lead to the bankruptcy of an ongoing project. On the other hand, an excessively high rate could raise the user fee or necessitate larger government subsidies.

- To determine the suitable CIRR, the risks and effects of government support must be analyzed. In particular, policies that encourage competition in the PPP market must be developed to lower user fees through policies, e.g. transparent disclosure of information, simplified implementation procedures, increased provision of guarantees, and the provision of compensation for the cost of failed proposals, etc.

Summary

Other Research Realizing the Potential of Public-Private Partnerships to Advance Asia's Infrastructure Development

This book is an outcome of the collaboration between the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Korea Development Institute (KDI) under ADB’s regional technical assistance research project—Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2016–2018. The project supports the production of the ADO, one of ADB’s flagship knowledge products. This book was born out of the theme chapter—Sustaining Development through Public–Private Partnership—of the Asian Development Outlook 2017 Update. The chapter, coauthored by members of ADB and KDI and Akash Deep, senior lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, examined the state of public–private partnerships (PPP) in developing Asia, and how these partnerships can contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. It also discussed how PPPs can be used to meet developing Asia’s infrastructure needs and contribute to sustainable development. This book contains the background papers that were used in the preparation of the theme chapter. All the papers have been updated and expanded for this book.

- Despite the rapid economic progress, Asian countries are still troubled by deficits in the infrastructure for electricity, transportation, water supply, sanitation, etc., increasing the demand for PPPs which efficiently utilizes private capital and expertise.

○ Developing infrastructure serves as a key factor not only in a region’s economic development but also in urbanization and building a stronger value chains.

- The report focuses on the prospect of PPP-driven infrastructure development in Asian countries and the risks challenging them. There are also insights into Korea’s advanced PPP system and its experiences and lessons and the importance of efficient financing mechanisms.

○ Chapter 1 evaluates the benefits and risks of PPP projects.

○ Chapter 2 analyzes factors affecting the financing for PPPs and suggests methods for syndicated loans and risk mitigation.

○ Chapter 3 details Korea’s experiences with PPPs and the implications, and compares the current condition and system of Korea, the Philippines and Indonesia as a way to explore the future direction for successful PPPs in Asian countries.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Enhancing Public-Private Partnerships for Social Innovation

Defined as a new idea that creates a collaborative structure, social innovation is an integrated process that generates substantial and sustainable social impact through new creative approaches and effectively responds to social demands. Until now, the direction of social innovation in Korea has progressed in the form of limited participation under government control and has been limited to specific fields. In other words, despite Korea’s efforts, the pursuit of social innovation does not seem to be as effective as expected.

Given this background, this study presents effective directions for role sharing between the government and private sector in order to promote social innovation. Part 1 discusses ways to promote public-private cooperation to improve regulatory effectiveness by examining ways to institutionally activate Public-Private Partnerships(PPP). In particular, it focuses on regulatory policy by finding areas for more active public-private cooperation. To that end, measures to enhance PPP were reviewed in terms of ① regulatory policy cycles, ② regulatory governance perspective, ③ regulatory methods that are applicable to individual issues and ④ stakeholder consultation. The section concludes by emphasizing the need for measures to actively consider PPP from the regulatory design stage; strengthen the autonomy of the private sector through regulations on output standards and; revitalize private-public cooperation.

Part 2 introduces the new PPP system, Social Impact Bond (SIB), as a new financial model, in order to promote the efficiency of public services. Although PPP is not a common practice in social welfare in Korea, the section discusses practical alternatives to apply to the social welfare field focusing on the concept, characteristics, operating structure and financing model of SIB. Additionally, it analyzes the determinants of SIB participation through survey results. Finally policy implications are presented, centering on the urgent tasks to invigorate SIB at each implementation stage.

Lastly, part 3 discusses ways to improve the public service of SOC public works projects. For the analysis, investment efficiency is examined in order to improve the publicness according to the benefit principle though which a comparative analysis between the government and private alternatives is conducted. Based on the results, the alternatives for maximizing the effect of PPP projects are suggested.

This study focuses on social innovation through PPP among the various social innovation methods to advance our society. In particular, it concentrates on institutional complementation in terms of regulatory policy, introduction of a new public service delivery system and improvement of public awareness centering on SOC. Ultimately, it provides policy implications that can offer practical assistance to our society.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Analysis on the Determinants of the IRR of Korean PPP Projects

The purpose of attracting private investment in the construction and operation of social overhead capital (SOC) is to maximize efficiency in the management of and investment in social overhead facilities by replenishing insufficient funds and injecting creativity and innovation from the private sector.

Korea’s Public-Private Partnership (PPP) system―implemented through the Promotion of Private Capital in Social Overhead Capital Investment Act (1994)―initiated the early expansion of social overhead facilities which contributed to economic growth and improving public benefits. Nevertheless, concerns have been raised over the validity of PPP projects due to an unexpected increase in the government’s financial burden resulting from the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) and termination payments. In particular, the sustainability of PPP projects has been called into question and has even become a social issue because of the relatively high user fees compared to the budgetary projects, among others.

Accordingly, this study attempts to indirectly examine the accomplishments of PPP policies designed to lessen or divide the risks of PPP projects over the past two decades. It analyzed the determinants of the contracted internal rate of return (IRR) to provide implications for enhancing the effectiveness and publicness of government support so that future PPP projects are conducted in a well coordinated manner.

The analysis results revealed that the contracted IRR of build-transfer-operate (BTO) projects do not have a statistically meaningful relationship with the 5-year government bond yield—which shows the conditions in the financing market. This is because large-scale BTO projects have too many hurdles for SMEs to work through, and for that reason, all of the participants are large construction and financial firms. This means that respective participants’ ability to finance a project is more important than general financial market conditions. Moreover, in most cases, a participating financial firm serves as both shareholder and borrower, meaning that there is no incentive for the firm to make an effort to obtain loans with low rates. On the other hand, a statistically meaningful positive correlation between the financing rate and contracted IRR was found for build-transfer-lease (BTL) projects, which has SMEs as investors and separates shareholders and borrowers. In short, the overall changes in financial market conditions or the level of financing rates could greatly affect the level of the contracted IRR of a BTL project while BTO projects are affected more by individual private investors’ financing ability and the composition of investors and borrowers than by financing market conditions.

Second, the government’s risk sharing policies and specific project features such as facility type, investment amount, construction subsidy and MRG conditions were found to little affect the decisions regarding contracted IRRs.

Given that project risks can systemically vary depending on the type of facility, it was initially thought that the contracted IRR could also significantly vary, but the difference was found to be statistically insignificant. Expert opinions and surveys should be taken into account to better identify and understand the characteristics of PPP projects by type, and the government should have a fully established policy direction and support principle with regards to risk management and allocation.

It was also thought that as the size of the total project cost increases, the degree of risk aversion could rise and the ensuing increase in the required return of rate could raise the contracted IRR. However, no meaningful significance was observed. On the contrary, BTL projects—although the effect is minimal—caused a decrease in the ‘alpha (α)’ additional rate (an indicator of the contracted additional rate) as the size of the PPP project cost rises. This appears to be due to the fact that the risks of BTL projects are very small, unlike BTO projects, and thus, large-scale PPP projects are regarded as stable investments from a long-term perspective.

In addition, operational and investment risks can escalate as the period of operation lengthens and growing uncertainties over future risks could entail a high long-term investment premium which would raise the required return of rate. Nevertheless, the results revealed that the operation period did not significantly impact the decisions on the contracted IRR of BTO projects while having a slight impact on the contracted additional rate of BTL projects. Hence, overall, the characteristics of the operation period have not been properly reflected in the contracted IRR.

Meanwhile, construction subsidies, which are directly paid by the government to private concessionaires during the construction period, were found to contribute to lowering the contracted IRR of PPP projects, but the effect was found to be insignificant. The analysis found that in BTO projects, a 1% increase in construction subsidy relative to total project cost causes a reduction of 0.008% in the contractual IRR.

Above all, this study found no contribution from the MRG system to lowering the contracted IRR, and this casts doubt on the effectiveness of the government’s risk allocation policy. Despite the fact that the MRG system—which is designed to make up for the shortage if the actual yearly operating income falls short of the initially estimated income in the concession agreement—can serve as an effective risk-sharing method to sharply reduce the contracted IRR, projects with MRG conditions were found to have concluded with a 0.59% higher contracted IRR at a 99% confidence level. Furthermore, the contracted IRR of MRG-inclusive projects was found to be higher than those without such conditions in an analysis of only road projects. It is assumed that this is because the contracted IRR was set very high during the intial period of the PPP system and subsequent projects were concluded by simply referring to preceding projects without considering the inclusion of the MRG.

Thirdly, the VfM test was also found to slightly contribute to lowering the contracted IRR. The test decides on a PPP project based on a comparison of the total life cycle cost (LCC) of the public sector comparator (PSC) and private finance initiative (PFI). As such, a project will unlikely pass the test if there is an increase in the rate of return as it will weigh on the government’s financial burden. To put it another way, the contracted IRR of a project which has passed the VfM test is more likely to be lowered compared to a project which has failed the test. However, the difference in the contracted IRR between such projects was found to be statistically insignificant, implying that the contents and methods of the VfM test need to be updated. In conducting the VfM test, it is also necessary to quantify project risks and risk-sharing that derive from facility type and the government’s support policy and to reflect them properly.

What should be particularly noted in this study is the effect of the degree of market competition (competition rate) on the contracted IRR. For BTO projects, one additional competitor reduces the contracted IRR by approximately 0.25%, suggesting that the level of the contracted IRR is closely related to the number of competing participants. Considering that encouraging competition could lead to a decrease in the contracted IRR and eventually a reduction in construction subsidies and user fees, the government should aim to enhance the competition rate to strengthen the publicness of future PPP projects.

Under the current PPP system, only large firms can afford the time and expenses required for project proposal, evaluation and negotiation, which poses an obstacle to new market entrants. Simplified processes are needed to save time and money and active participation in PPP projects should be encouraged by enabling easier financing and lower rates to reduce the contracted IRR.

This study has its own limitations. Future studies need to closely examine the impact from private-sector concessionaires and project characteristics on the contracted IRR. Depending on their financing ability, credit rating, PPP experience, and knowledge and know-how about the construction and operation of specific facilities, project concessionaries may present different attitudes and decisions, which could affect the decisions over the contracted IRR.

Further analyses should include accumulating data on project funding and its equity structure; private investors’ experiences and characteristics; construction investors’ average construction margin; operation investors’ operation margin and; loan interest rates for the actual financial arrangement. Additionally, in-depth analyses of the impact of these variables should follow.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Policies through a Policy Experiment System

This study proposes that a policy experiment system is introduced to examine the validity of new social polices. Such polices cannot be assessed with the existing Preliminary Feasibility Test and require a small-scale pilot program with an experimental design (typically, randomized controlled trial or RCT) to first be implemented. When the program ends, it is evaluated by the fiscal authorities to decide on whether to scale up the policy.

The policy experiment system presented in this study is applicable to social policies with the following characteristics: i) concrete objective; ii) measurable main outcome and realized in a short period of time and; iii) accessible control group. It is particularly useful when a policy is surrounded by skepticism and/or when budgetary needs are expected to increase in the near future. Accordingly, it can be concluded that the active labor market program is most suitable for the pilot application of the policy experiment system.

Chapter 1 briefly introduces the concept of the policy experiment system while Chapter 2 presents the implementation of the experiment through existing and new labor market programs. Prime examples are the Employment Success Package which was initiated in 2010 and the Youth Job Search Subsidy which is slated for 2019. Chapters 3 and 4 provide practical guides for researchers conducting the policy experiment and summarize the issues of conducting the experiment in the health and welfare field. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the potential limitations of the system and draws on a conclusion.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Decision Making in Deep Uncertainty: Focusing on Transport Planning and Feasibility Studies

Despite the progress in the assessment of transport planning and facilities investment, uncertainties in regards to the results are ever mounting. Unreliable traffic volume forecasting, in particular, has become the biggest financial risk in private investment and the fiscal costs incurred by the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) and project bankruptcy are the biggest obstacles in the implementation of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Indeed, numerous PPP projects including the Incheon International Airport Expressway and Nonsan-Cheonan Expressway revealed that the actual traffic volume was far below the level agreed upon in the concession agreement, which has driven up fiscal costs and even put some projects such as the Uijeongbu Light Rail Transit into bankruptcy.

This study aims to present an analysis framework and suggest a selection of robust policies for when uncertainty runs deep. Desirable policy directions and agreement conditions are presented to enhance the sustainability of PPP projects. Specifically, a reduction in passenger fares and in MRG conditions is proposed, which would minimize the risks of bankruptcy and fallout from the additional fiscal burden on the government.

The method used in this study is the vulnerability-and-response-option approach which is a bottom-up approach that first considers the uncertainties in traffic volume forecasting or the underlying vulnerabilities and negative outcomes in PPP projects before presenting the optimal responses. It should be noted that the prevailing method is the predict-then-act method which is a top-down approach through which concession agreements are reached and implemented based on the assumption that traffic forecasts are accurate.

Based on the results from the analyzed PPP projects, it was found that the government’s fiscal burden could be minimized and the net present value (NPV) of projects maximized when: passenger fares are reduced to 86% of the current level and the actual revenue exceeds 60% of the expected level (or 50% of the current level) and; when 70% of the expected revenue (or 80% of the current revenue) can be guaranteed for five years after the commencement date and 62% of the expected revenue (or 70% of the current revenue) for 25 years thereafter. Furthermore, these conditions are expected to reduce the MRG payment from an average 448 billion won to 5.5 billion won and the NPV from 412.6 billion won to 71 billion won, implying that they could minimize the risk of bankruptcy and additional costs while also reducing passenger fares.

The policy suggestions are as follows. Efforts are needed to manage the contingent liabilities that can occur from government support or guarantee for PPP projects. As shown through the PPP projects in this study, implementing projects simply based on the assumption that traffic volume forecasts are accurate without an examination into the risks can ramp up the MRG payment and fiscal costs resulting from bankruptcies.

The dissemination and sharing of information on the associated risks is important in the implementation of PPP projects. For instance, empirical data on the inherent uncertainties in traffic volume forecasting is needed in order to preemptively recognize the underlying risks in feasibility evaluations so that more rational decisions can be made. Details on traffic volume forecasting should also be made transparent as openness and discussion on the forecast results will enable a better understanding of the risks.
Besides the aforementioned method, other measures to minimize the uncertainties in the short-term should be considered. PPP projects that involve low-forecasting risks should be actively implemented including those to improve aging and neglected facilities.

The vulnerability-and-response-option is unlike the existing predict-then-act method. This new approach is currently but rarely applied in the field of water management in Korea as a part of its efforts against climate change; there are no other cases of robust decision approaches in PPP projects in other countries. Therefore, applying this approach entails the following issues and limitations.

Above all, traffic volume was used as a variable for deep uncertainty in this study and the Geometrical Brownian Motion (GBM) model was used to assume the probability distribution of the traffic volume variable. And, by using the parameters of the GBM model, i.e. increase rate and volatility in traffic volume, a simulation was conducted of future traffic volumes. However, the accuracy of the actual traffic volume depends on analysts’ assumptions on and probability distribution model for the probability distribution of the traffic volume variable, which could, in turn, change the Pareto optimal solution. It should be noted that caution is needed when establishing the range for the strategy variable. In this study, the range (lower and upper limits) was based on the assumed minimum and maximum of conditions that are applicable to stakeholders. But, this range may also affect the pursuit of Pareto optimality. In this regard, prior consultation between stakeholders is important to establish the range of strategy variables.

Lastly, this study used two objective functions—performance indicators—to explore strategy variables with ‘robust’ Pareto optimal solutions that could minimize the fiscal costs generated by the MRG and maximize the NPV of PPP projects when there are deep uncertainties in traffic volume forecasting. This study, however, does not include discussions and analyses on how much Pareto weight should be given to each performance (objective) indicator. Indeed, despite the fact that performance indicators serve as the basis for final strategy decisions in trade-offs between the interests of the government and private project operators, this study only deals with cases wherein the weighting of the performance indicators (objective functions) is difficult or impossible.

SITEMAP

HOT ISSUE

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary

Summary