KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

KDI FOCUS Assessing Old-Age Poverty with Income and Assets: Generational Insights and Policy Directions

Korea’s old-age poverty rate, based solely on income, ranks among the highest in the OECD. While the rate drops slightly when assets are considered, it remains persistently high. There are marked disparities in poverty rates across different elderly birth cohorts, with older groups facing higher rates. A greater share of the low-income, low-asset segment also marks the observed inequality. To effectively address poverty among the elderly, policy efforts should prioritize support for the oldest members of this vulnerable low-income, low-asset segment. Concurrently, financial assistance for seniors in the low-income, high-asset group should be scaled back. A practical move toward this direction would be revising the eligibility criteria for the Basic Pension to include asset-inclusive pensionable earnings.

- Korea’s old-age poverty rate was 43.4% in 2018, the highest among OECD countries (average 13.1%).

- The old-age poverty rate varies markedly across the five elderly generations, with those born in the 1940s or earlier having the highest rates.

- The recent decrease in the old-age poverty rate and the disparities seen across age cohorts can likely be attributed to the growing proportion of individuals born in the 1950s who tend to be less impoverished.

- Given the nascent state of public transfers in Korea, asset accumulation is the likely channel of retirement planning, meaning income alone does not provide a complete picture of old-age poverty.

- When incorporating both income and assets into the analysis, the old-age poverty rate determined by asset incomization is markedly lower than that derived from income alone but remains elevated.

- Korea’s old-age poverty rate, evaluated using both income and assets, still ranks among the highest in the world.

- When incorporating assets into the analysis, the share of the low-income, low-asset varies significantly across generations, particularly among those born in the 1940s and earlier.

- The difference in levels of old-age poverty across generations can be attributed to the intergenerational income disparity caused by rapid economic growth and the differing maturity levels of retirement security systems for each generation.

- To provide targeted assistance for the most vulnerable, the Basic Pension should be based on asset-adjusted pensionable earnings, reducing the support for seniors in the low-income, high-asset category.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Designing Social Protections for Platform Workers

In the expanding landscape of the platform economy, the rapid rise in the number of platform workers underscores a critical issue: the need for social protection for those not covered by conventional labor laws. Recognizing the transformative impact and significant societal value of the platform economy, it becomes essential to rethink the legal classification of platform workers, moving beyond the traditional "employee" versus "business owner" dichotomy. This paper argues that while platform workers might exhibit similar work patterns, the protection they receive should be proportionate to the labor monopsony power exerted by the platforms they associate with. A harmonized approach that aligns labor and competition policies is crucial to address these challenges.

- Today, platform labor is experiencing a swift expansion both in scope and magnitude.

- While the growth of platform workers presents numerous benefits, recent developments have spotlighted a few notable concerns.

- The discourse surrounding social protection for platform workers has been active, primarily revolving around the question of acknowledging their status as workers.

- The approach needs to be about reconciling the characteristics of the platform economy with genuinely effective protection for its workers.

- By focusing on the labor monopsony inherent to platforms, we can objectively assess the necessity of social protection for platform workers, incorporating discussions on both labor and fair trade policies.

- In this paper, ICT software developer platforms and delivery app platforms are investigated as representative examples of web-based freelance platforms and locally-based labor provision platforms, respectively.

- While the labor supply elasticity offers an empirical estimate of monopsony power, the platform economy necessitates a broader examination of additional factors.

- As for in-house contracts in the ICT developer platform, an empirical analysis shows that its labor monopsony power is on par with that of the typical labor market.

- In the delivery app market, it is imperative to examine the competitive dynamics among platforms from the standpoints of delivery app providers and consumers. Of particular interest is understanding the reasons and frequency of individuals using multiple apps at the same time (multihoming), along with the ease of switching between platforms.

- From the consumer perspective, the entry of newer players and heightened competition among delivery apps have increased multi-homing and reduced market dominance.

- Delivery app riders generally view themselves as wage workers. While they enjoy considerable flexibility in tasks and working hours, they are also subject to significant ex-post oversight through performance evaluations.

- To ensure the effective protection of platform workers while allowing platform-driven innovation, policies must be both flexible and unified under the goal of curbing platforms' monopsony power over labor demand and preventing potential abuses.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Green Transition Strategy and Implementation

It is imperative for the Republic of Korea to prioritize the development of elaborate green transition strategies and implementation plans. In light of this urgency, this study offers ten chapters addressing select issues on green transition, which provide policy recommendations drawn from identification of problems, assessment of current policies, and empirical analysis.

Chapter 2 (Dr. Yong Hyeon Yang) assesses the national greenhouse gas emission reduction plan the Korean government announced in Oct. 2021. It finds the sectoral strategies to be insufficient for the stated targets and suggests that an energy transition ambition has to be increased as either targets have to be decreased in other sectors or there could be a need for more extensive electrification. Chapter 3 (Prof. Wonhyuk Lim) offers insights on energy transition strategies and their implication for the electricity industry. Periodical simulations should be conducted for multiple scenarios, and the overall cost of transition, including the expenses for networks and standby facilities as well as the levelized cost of energy, should be minimized. Accordingly, transition and phase-out of fossil fuel plants should be systematically planned in stages.

Chapter 4 (Dr. Yeochang Yoon) points out the limitations of the Korean emission trading system (ETS) and presents potential solutions. The current restrictions on banking need to be relaxed to keep the ETS allowance prices from dropping, but such adjustments should be introduced gradually to prevent a sudden decline in supply. Chapter 5 (Prof. Hyungna Oh) raises a possibility of insufficient investment in decarbonization technologies due to first-mover disadvantages. It advocates introduction of carbon contracts for difference to incentivize R&D in green technologies, especially when carbon prices are low or uncertain. Chapter 6 (Dr. Karam Jo) presents the empirical result that patents in some digital transformation technologies can increase patents in climate technologies by an average of 17.3% and underscores the need to promote such digital transformation technologies.

Chapter 7 (Dr. Junghyun Kwon and Dr. Joseph Han) reveals that elevated outdoor temperatures decrease working hours in an inequitable manner and deteriorate workers’ health. These observations imply that climate change could magnify income inequality. As such, protective measures for outdoor workers against high temperatures and support for their job transitions are crucial. Chapter 8 (Dr. Hyunseok Kim) proposes selective subsidies for regions heavily impacted by climate change and green transition, and highlights the necessity of assessing those impacts objectively. Most importantly, local governments should formulate transition plans in line with central government guidelines.

Chapter 9 (Prof. WooRam Park) indicates that a large portion of greenhouse gas comes from establishments with more than 300 workers, and in such industries as petrochemical and steel. It also shows higher carbon productivity in industries with lower greenhouse gas emissions and establishments using less energy. Chapter 10 (Dr. Joseph Han) reveals the empirical result that firms who entered in the first stage of ETS had significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage, annual turnover, and employment than those who did in the second stage. The performance of these firms was influenced by the design of the ETS, for example, on what basis the allowances were assigned free of charge or for a fee. Hence, policy design for green transition should pay particular attention to its effects on businesses and employment. Lastly, Chapter 11 (Dr. Sora Chon) observes that the global green transition might trigger both green and energy inflation. Analyzing the effect of inflation factors on the Korean economy finds that such impacts vary based on whether inflation arises from a demand or a supply shock. Consequently, the Korean government's responses should differentiate between inflation factors that are demand-side and supply-side.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR An Economic Analysis of Platform Labor: Focusing on Monopsony Power and Social Protection

We study platform labor from the perspective of labor monopsony. We start from exploring the size and trend of the domestic platform labor market and the current status of social protection available to platform workers. Extending the often-discussed nature of platform work, we shift our attention to the defining characteristics of digital platforms and the link between product and labor market competitions, focusing on labor supply elasticity with respect to wage and monopsony power. We conduct empirical studies in two distinct areas: the IT freelance market and the food delivery app market. In the context of the IT freelance market, we estimate the elasticity of labor supply by analyzing data collected from a Korean IT freelance platform via web-scrapping. The findings show that the monopsony power of the freelance platform is relatively minimal, suggesting a positive effect of the platform in fostering thicker markets. In contrast, for the food delivery app market which expanded rapidly during the COVID-19 period, a survey of riders unveils certain limitations related to multi-homing and platform switching, thereby signifying a potential for monopsony power in this sector. Extended analyses using app-use data combined with large-scale labor surveys show a downward wage trend with an increase in market concentration―despite stable or even growing employment levels. This pattern contradicts the traditional expectations under labor monopsony, which usually involves negative impacts on both employment and wages. Instead, our findings suggest an asymmetry in bargaining power. We conclude with overarching implications on competition and labor policies, focusing on platform’s monopsony power.

Summary

Policy Study KOR The Impact of Increase in Pension Age on Employment, Income and Consumption

Due to population aging and a relatively low contribution rate relative to high pension payments, a pension fund in Korea is financially unstable. To improve financial stability, the Korean government passed a law in 1998 that gradually increased the pension age from age 60 to 65 between 2013 and 2033. The purpose of the reform was to prolong the retirement age and delay the pension payment among the elderly. However, as the statutory retirement age has remained at age 60 since 2016, the gap between the statutory retirement age and pension age has widened. This widening gap has brought the need to explore whether and how people have been supplementing their income and consumption in the time of income crevasse.

This paper uses cohort discontinuity regression to estimate the impact of the increase in the pension age on employment, income, and consumption in Korea by using a discontinuous jump in the pension age from 61 to 62 between the 1956 and 1957 cohorts. It finds that an increase in pension age from 61 to 62 leads to a rise in labor income and does not lead to a drop in disposable income and consumption at age 61, despite the decrease in pension amount. However, a heterogenous effect depends on the family characteristics, such as the rate of medical expense out of total consumption expenditure and the education level of the household head. In particular, the labor income of families with high rates of medical expense out of total consumption did not increase despite the decline in pension amount. Along with the decreased business and property income, they experience a drop in disposable income. Moreover, a family with a household head in high school but without a college degree does not increase the labor income. Along with the decline in business and property income, they experience a drop in disposable income and consumption.

These results suggest that the vulnerable group from the increase in pension age policy might be the family who can-not extends labor participation due to health problems or the care-giver burden of the family member with the health problem. Moreover, the vulnerable group from the increase in pension age in Korea might not be the lowest and highest education group but instead those in the middle.

This paper suggests the following policy implication. First, the government needs to provide an income supplement to those who can not extend their employment in the period of income crevasse due to health problems and provide care-giving service to those who can not participate in work due to the care-giving burden between the statutory and pension age. Secondly, the government might want to implement a partial pension system that allows receiving early pension partially, which gives more flexibility in combining work and pension. Thirdly, to reduce the gap between the statutory age and pension age, the government might want to gradually extend the re-employment system while transforming the seniority-based wage system into one that reflects the productivity and task of the person's job. Fourth, the government might want to enhance the job-training program for the elderly by evaluating the program's effectiveness and grasping the need of both the employer and employee's side.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Providing Social Protection for Self-Employed Workers

This study examines whether expanding the pool of beneficiaries for unemployment insurance (UI) to the self-employed is a way to ensure better social protection. First, we document the self-employed’s income variability, job security, and job transition paths after a business closedown, also comparing these factors to wage earners. Second, we use model simulations to analyze the effects of mandatory UI for the self-employed on labor market tightness, fiscal soundness, and self-employment rate.

Our comparison of the self-employed and wage-earning employees, based on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) and the Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions (SHFLC), yields the following findings: (1) the self-employed are constantly exposed to fluctuations in business income, which may lead to business failure; (2) there is no substantial difference between the self-employment duration of the self-employed and the employment duration of full-time employees; and (3) a significant number of self-employed individuals choose to start new businesses after their previous businesses close down.

Such results imply that the government may increase the coverage rate of the self-employed by increasing the unemployment benefit level or decreasing the contribution level without harming fiscal soundness. However, establishing an income verification system for the self-employed should proceed or coincide with expanding insurance coverage for self-employed workers to address pertinent concerns, including adverse selection due to lack of income information and moral hazard due to the difficulty of evaluating involuntary business cessation. Moreover, additional assistance is necessary for the self- employed who re-start businesses after closedown.

This study employs a model-based approach to estimate the impact of UI on entrepreneurs. Building on the standard search and matching framework, it incorporates the decision-making processes of entrepreneurs. A model-based approach offers several advantages, enabling analyses of the direct effects of policy changes on the economy and the indirect effects through entrepreneurs’ adjustment to those changes. Our results suggest that extending UI to self- employed entrepreneurs would lead to increased business closures and reduced hiring, causing a slack labor market and higher unemployment. This, in turn, would put pressure on the UI budget, and social welfare would decrease overall. Longer duration of unemployment and reduced government transfers offset increased welfare for former entrepreneurs from receiving UI benefits. However, the study also finds that social welfare can be improved by the government subsidizing UI contributions for entrepreneurs, especially when targeted financial support is provided to low-income entrepreneurs. In that case, UI for entrepreneurs achieves greater social welfare improvement than other social protection systems, such as unemployment assistance.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Changes in the employment structure and income gap before and after COVID-19 : Analysis using Quarterly Data of KLIPS

COVID-19 first appeared in Korea in January 2020, reshaping our daily lives over nearly three years. The pandemic exerted a substantial influence on the labor market, resulting in a decline of 200,000 to 400,000 jobs in March 2020 compared to the same month the previous year. By January 2021, when the pandemic peaked in Korea, job losses approximated 1 million. Nevertheless, from March 2021 onward, employment trajectories showed a rapid ascent, and by September 2022, indicators seemed to have returned to pre-COVID levels.

Against this backdrop, this report poses three research inquiries. First, has the employment structure of our labor market undergone any transformation before and after the COVID-19 disruption? Second, while the quantitative recovery of employment is observed, has its quality, i.e., wage (income), been adequately restored to its preceding state? The purpose of these two questions is to determine if the employment shock caused by the pandemic disproportionately affected certain worker cohorts. The third query endeavors to identify factors external to the pandemic that might have exerted influence on the labor market, specifically exploring potential reasons for the observed deviation in recent employment patterns from historical trends.

This study sourced datasets spanning the 18th (2015) to the 24th (2021) series of the Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS). The annual data was restructured into a quarterly format, thereby facilitating an analysis of employment dynamics across pre- and post-COVID intervals. Quarterly employment figures were derived from individual employment records curated by KLIPS to examine labor state transitions and associated income fluctuations within the quarterly timeframe. This quarterly analytical paradigm offered an advantage in capturing more short-term job transitions than annual data might have.

Summary

KDI Policy Forum How to Save Local Communities Where Young People Are Leaving?

■ As young people are increasingly concentrated in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), there is growing interest in policies for supporting young people to settle outside of the SCA; however, a better understanding of young people’s location choice is a prerequisite for policy effectiveness.

- The growing presence of young adults in their late 20s and early 30s in the SCA since 2015 requires empirical investigations of the determinants of their location choice.

■ This study empirically analyzes the residential location choice of young people at two distinctive stages---college education and labor market entry---and finds that the policy intervention at the stage of college education is ineffective, while more visible impact is observed for the policy intervention at the stage of labor market entry.

- When high school graduates in the SCA had to out-migrate to a non-SCA region for higher education due to an exogenous demographic shock, most of them eventually returned to the SCA at the later job-search stage. The deterioration of local economic conditions at graduation also resulted in the increased return moves to the SCA.

- Simulations from a two-stage locational choice model that estimated from micro data show that wage subsidies are more cost-effective than educational subsidies for the settlement of young people in the non-SCA areas.

■ Policies for youth require a nationally-coordinated design, considering the impact on location choice, and policies for local higher education should focus on the original goals, not the supplemental goal of mitigating youth outflows.

- Policies for youth need to be better designed in consideration of regional circumstances so as not to encourage youth migration to the SCA. In particular, policy alternatives targeting subsidies and tax benefits for local youth workers are needed.

- The policy for local higher education needs to prioritize improving the quality of education and research functions and strengthening the tie with the local community.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Redesigning Safety Nets as a Response to New Challenges

The safety net faces new challenges. Non-regular workers are increasing with diversifying forms of employment, but the current safety net does not protect these new types of workers. The COVID-19 crisis highlights the lack of protection for these workers in our existing safety net. Also, the transition to a digital and eco-friendly economy is expected to trigger drastic changes in jobs and put burdens on the most vulnerable workers, which requires strengthening the safety net.

This study examines the limitations of the current safety net in rapidly changing economic and social conditions and provides ways to restructure it in response to new challenges. This study consists of four chapters: income support system, employment safety net, adult education and training, and safety net for sick workers. These four fields have revealed major problems in the COVID-19 crisis and need to be addressed and strengthened to build a comprehensive safety net.

Chapter 1 examines the effectiveness of the income support system during the COVID-19 period and provides an overall evaluation of the system in terms of inclusiveness, poverty reduction, economic responsiveness, and consistency. Chapter 2 analyzes what causes blind spots in the employment safety net and estimates a structural model, including unemployment insurance for the self-employed and unemployment assistance, to suggest policies for a comprehensive employment safety net. Chapter 3 investigates the characteristics of users and non-users of adult education and training voucher programs and examines why the most vulnerable groups in need of the programs do not use vouchers. Chapter 4 analyzes the state of the safety net supporting sick workers and examines the impact of health shock on employment and income to provide implications for the design of sickness benefits.

These four chapters share a common concern about the safety net's wide blind spots, especially for vulnerable workers, and discuss policy tasks. First, the employment safety net does not provide protection for temporary, non-regular workers and the self-employed due to limited unemployment insurance coverage. Also, income support programs for the working-age group are not responsive to economic needs, and support against economic difficulties is insufficient. This study suggests strengthening unemployment assistance for the low-income and vulnerable workers to enhance the inclusiveness and economic responsiveness of the safety net. Second, although anyone can participate in adult education and training institutionally, the actual participation rate of the vulnerable is low. This study points out that it is important to induce their actual participation, not simply an external expansion. Third, insecure workers are less likely to access sick leaves than secure workers. Due to the disparity across workers, sickness benefits under discussion for adoption may also have practical blind spots for vulnerable workers. This study discusses policies that need consideration when designing sickness benefits to provide a secure safety net for sick workers.

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