KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

Policy Study KOR Time Preference Estimation in Korea: Focusing on the Impact of Age

This study systematically analyzes the relationship between time preference and age in South Korea, offering policy implications. It reviews the theoretical foundations of age-specific characteristics of time preference and empirically examines time preferences using survey methodology. Findings reveal that time preferences follow a U-shaped pattern with age, reaching their lowest point in the 45-50 age range. Educational attainment significantly impacts time preferences, with college graduates linked to lower preferences and smoother age-related patterns compared to those with high school education or less. Additionally, life insurance policyholders and groups with high financial literacy demonstrate lower and more stable time preferences. These results suggest the need for targeted life-cycle policies. Contrary to traditional economic theory’s view of time preference as a fixed exogenous variable, this study suggests potential endogenous changes, advocating tailored policy approaches in savings, education, finance, and information provision.

Summary

KDI FOCUS The Role of Capital Structure in Real Estate Project Financing: Risk, Cost, and Policy Implications

By examining project-level data on real estate project financing (PF), I find that higher equity ratios are associated with lower overall risk and reduced project costs. This finding supports policy measures aimed at strengthening capital structures without unduly constraining PF activity. If regulatory lending limits are to be introduced, they should target only low-equity PF projects. Moreover, preferred shares should be recognized as regulatory-eligible equity capital, and the deferral of capital gains tax should be made permanent to encourage in-kind land contributions. It is equally important to address regulatory arbitrage involving Project Finance Vehicles (PFVs), which are often exploited to pursue large-scale developments with minimal capital.

- The government has announced measures to expand PF equity capital, but without disclosing project-level data, there is no empirical basis to assess whether this expansion sufficiently reduces risk.

- Empirical analysis finds that expanding PF equity capital lowers risks across presale, default, postdefault recovery failure, and post-completion refinancing failure.

- PF capital expansion reduces construction, f inancing, and other costs, which in turn lowers total project costs.

- Increases in PF equity ratios diminish contractors’ guarantee risk, reduce construction costs, and thereby lessen completion risk.

- The current plan properly combines capital requirements with incentives, but specificity and effectiveness should be improved.

- PF lending caps should apply only to loans on low-equity projects, not to all PF loans.

- Policy incentives should extend to preferred shares as eligible PF equity capital to attract more equity investors.

- The capital gains tax deferral for in-kind land contributions should be permanent.

- PFVs have enabled undercapitalization in large projects, and prudential regulation and supervision on par with project REITs should be introduced in stages for PFVs to close regulatory arbitrage and strengthen the capital base.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Investor Composition of Government Debtand its Fiscal Implications

This paper estimates the demand for South Korea’s government bonds across investor categories and projects future bond yields in light of the country’s rising debt trajectory. A cross-country analysis shows that public and non-bank sectors have been key drivers of increased foreign investor holdings of Korean government debt during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using sectoral debt holdings data, the paper examines the evolution of marginal holdings of government bonds by each sector and estimates the responsiveness of debt demand to bond yield changes. Over the past decade, domestic banks and public institutions, including the National Pension Service, have reduced their marginal holdings, while private pension and investment fund sectors have increased theirs. These findings highlight the growing importance of non-bank sectors in government debt demand, consistent with the literature (Fang et al., 2022). Foreign investors exhibit the highest demand sensitivity to bond yields, whereas domestic insurance companies show the lowest. Based on sectoral demand estimates, a 10% increase in government debt is estimated to raise bond yields by 43 basis points. By 2030, when Korea’s government debt is expected to reach 2,000 trillion won, bond yields are projected to rise to 4.85%, ceteris paribus. Notably, 60% of the projected yield increase is attributed to the inelastic demand of insurance companies. This underscores the importance of adjusting the investor composition of the government bond market, with a greater share of investors with higher demand elasticity to alleviate pressure on borrowing cost.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on Property Tax Incidence

This study examines the incidence of property taxes, focusing on whether the property tax, which is levied on the property owner when the owner and the user are different, is passed on to the user. If the tax is borne by the owner, it acts as a capital tax; if passed to the user, it functions as a consumption tax. Additionally, if the revenue from the tax is used to improve local environments, it could be considered a benefit tax.

Through empirical analysis, the study explores how changes in the comprehensive property tax system affect housing rental prices. The findings show that these changes have little impact on the rental market. No evidence was found to suggest that rental prices increase as the publicly assessed value rises near the taxable threshold. Moreover, using a difference-in-differences method to compare rental prices before and after the policy change, the analysis confirms that the strengthened system did not lead to higher rental prices for properties subject to the tax.

In conclusion, the results suggest that the tax is best viewed as a capital tax. Taxing housing assets may reduce investment and hinder the efficient allocation of capital. Since South Korea's property tax level is in line with the OECD average, it is important to minimize changes to the system, analyze its effects, and then proceed with reforms.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Economic Effects of Capital Gains Tax on Housing

This study examines the economic effects of South Korea’s capital gains tax reforms on housing, focusing on the lock-in effect ― a contraction in housing transactions following higher tax rates. In 2017, amid a prolonged housing boom, the government raised capital gains tax rates for multi-homeowners. Analysis of transaction volumes and prices around the announcement and implementation reveals a pre-reform surge in sales and gifts, followed by a post-reform decline. A temporary suspension of the tax in 2019 again triggered a short-term uptick in transactions during the grace period.

These findings suggest the tax policy failed to achieve its intended goal of stabilizing the housing market. The lock-in effect, compounded by low policy credibility, likely contributed to diminished public trust in housing policy. Moving forward, housing tax reforms should be anchored to fundamental taxation principles, prioritizing efficiency and equity while promoting system stability to ensure predictable obligations for taxpayers and bolster confidence in the housing market.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Capital Flows and Challenges in the Digital Age: Focusing on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

As the digitalization of finance accelerates, discussions on the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are gaining momentum, particularly among G20 nations. This development calls for examining the potential impacts of CBDC implementation on both domestic and international financial markets and capital flow, alongside exploring appropriate response strategies. Upon reviewing the status and background of CBDC adoption among G20 countries, setting up a unified CBDC platform for this group in the short term is highly unfeasible. Instead, some emerging economies are expected to introduce retail CBDCs to enhance payment infrastructure or conduct experiments linking wholesale CBDCs for cross-border payments. Should CBDCs be adopted globally, the speed and scale of international capital movements could increase, potentially amplifying the volatility of capital flows and currency values. In order to ensure the effectiveness of capital flow management policies already in place, it is crucial to foster close cooperation between major central banks on CBDC integration. Moreover, efforts should be made to maximize the benefits of the new payment systems introduced by CBDCs. These efforts include revising financial regulations and upgrading infrastructure by implementing open foreign exchange regulations, maintaining balanced oversight of fintech firms, and enhancing the efficiency of existing payment and settlement infrastructures.

Summary

Policy Study KOR CBDC-based New Banking System, Bank Runs, and Efficient Allocation

Digital financial innovation drives the development of the financial industry, offering new benefits to financial consumers. However, as demonstrated by the 2023 bank run involving Silicon Valley Bank, it also heightens the risk of digital bank runs. In exploring how to prevent bank runs while ensuring the efficiency of financial intermediation, this study examines a new banking system proposed in Europe, the CBDC next-level model: A central bank issues retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to monopolize demand deposit-taking and supply these funds as pass-through funding to commercial banks. In turn, banks provide loans to private borrowers using these funds. This system removes barriers to entry in the loan market to allow for free competition among commercial banks, fintechs, and Big Tech companies, thereby introducing perfect competition. Rigorous theoretical analysis in this study shows that this novel system could eliminate bank runs while achieving socially optimal levels of financial intermediation. Nonetheless, this model also presents some limitations, such as the centralization of personal information by the central bank and the potential political influence over lending decisions.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Korean Unique Regulations in Housing Market

We study regulations in the housing market, which are very unique and have great influences in Korea. Due to COVID-19, the housing market have experienced rapid changes. Thus, the government responded boldly with unprecedented policies. Among others, 3 special regulations are on the table for discussion. The first is the Land Transaction Permit, which was implemented to reduce demand on housing in specific regions. Second, the Price Cap on New Houses is investigated for housing supply policy. The final is a regulation on the contract renewal claims in the housing rental market.

Chapter 2 analyzes the direct and indirect price effects of the Land Transaction Permit (LTP), a selective regulation introduced in 2020 for high-priced houses in Seoul to stabilize skyrocketing prices. The LTP is an administrative regulation that requires local governments to permit transactions in designated "areas," and as of 2022, the total area covered by the LTP is about 9% of Seoul's land area.Houses in the LTP zone can only be purchased by buyers who are either homeless or will eventually become single-family homeowners, and they must actually live in the houses for two years immediately after purchase. In this study, we analyzed the price and transaction volume of LTP regulated and unregulated houses, focusing on "Jamsil-dong, Samsung-dong, Daechi-dong, and Cheongdam-dong," which were designated in June 2020. In the regulated area, the LTP scheme directly reduced transaction volumes by 38.3% and prices by 4.3% compared to unregulated areas. However, the LTP scheme unexpectedly had a positive price appreciation effect on homes located closer to the regulated areas. When unregulated dwellings are categorized according to their distance from the regulated area, we estimate that dwellings closer to the regulated area increased in price by 2.3% relative to dwellings further away, and this effect is larger the closer they are to the regulated area. It appears that some of the demand in the regulated area shifts to nearby unregulated areas with higher substitutability. The different direction of the direct effect on regulated areas and the indirect effect on nearby areas suggests that selective regulation, such as LTP, may not be the right regulatory approach to achieve the goal of stabilizing the housing market.

The next chapter, Chapter 3, examines the effects of the Price Cap on New Houses. This price cap, which limits the price of new homes, is one of the controversial regulations that raises concerns that it may limit housing supply in the future. However, this study's analysis found no evidence that the price cap reduces the supply of new homes. Although the pre-sale price cap limits the profits of housing construction projects, it is operated by reflecting all the costs of land and construction for housing supply. Even if the prices of newly supplied homes are limited by the price cap during the period when the housing price is on the rise, the sales of new homes is likely to increase as well. Thereby housing development projects are profitable enough to cover all the costs. Therefore, there appears to be no empirical evidence for concerns that future housing supply will be reduced by this price cap implemented during the housing market boom. However, these results are contradictory to the results of existing studies, so caution needs to be taken when interpreting them further.

Chapter 4 investigates the price impact of the deposit control imposed on the housing repo contract in Korea, known as Jeonse. Jeonse is a unique housing repo contract in Korea where the landlord borrows a deposit from the tenant, using the house as collateral. The tenant is granted the right to occupy the house during the contract period at the expense of the deposit’s opportunity cost. In July 2020, the Korean legislature passed a law granting tenants the right to renew the Jeonse contract once, with the new deposit amount not exceeding a 5% increase from the original amount. While this new regulation has been heavily criticized as the primary driver of the surge in Jeonse deposits during the pandemic, its actual price impact has not been properly estimated.

We estimate the value of the Jeonse renewal option monthly using option pricing techniques, based on reasonable assumptions about the housing price process and information gathered from the current term structure of interest rates. Our estimation results indicate that the deposit control regulation raised Jeonse deposits nationwide by only 0.97% and by 4.80% in Seoul at the time of the introduction of the regulation, a magnitude significantly lower than previously discussed in both media and academic circles. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the renewal option does not have any intrinsic value over the past 10 years, suggesting that the option can be considered pure insurance against an unexpected increase in the equilibrium level of Jeonse deposits by the time of expiry. Based on the background of the regulation and the results of our analysis, we provide policy suggestions.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Protecting Customer Funds for Emerging Financial Products

Emerging financial products driven by innovation, such as virtual assets and simplified payment services, introduce both new conveniences and in-transaction risks to customer funds. Despite regulations on segregating customer funds already in place, full compliance by businesses with these rules is unlikely, especially with insolvency on their horizon. This paper proposes a new protection framework that bolsters the safety of new financial products and reduces funding pressures for the compensation scheme.

- New financial products emerging through innovation offer novel benefits but may also expose customers to risks in managing their funds.

- A protection system for emerging financial products can lay a strong foundation, serving as a key safety net to support reliable financial innovation.

- Customer funds for new financial products include prepaid balances, virtual asset deposits,

- P2P lending deposits, and funeral service prepayments.

- The current volume of customer funds associated with new financial products is substantial, at about 18 trillion won, and is expected to grow further, driven by advancements in digital finance and population aging.

- There have been numerous cases where businesses misappropriated customer funds for new financial products and later went bankrupt.

- Although fund segregation regulations for customer funds are in place, firms on the verge of bankruptcy are highly likely to violate them, and several other limitations persist.

- While fund segregation regulations serve a preventive function, the best of such precautions cannot eliminate all incidents, necessitating a post-incident protection system.

- In the direct protection scheme, firms pay insurance premiums in advance, and KDIC protects customers in the event of business insolvency.

- However, the direct scheme applies uniform insurance rates regardless of fund segregation in contrast to the fundamental insurance principle of premiums proportional to risk.

- In the indirect framework, firms do not pay insurance premiums, and KDIC safeguards only the funds segregated in banks in the event of bank failure.

- The indirect approach only protects segregated funds, leaving customers unprotected from violations of segregation rules, resulting in reduced protection effectiveness.

- The proposed hybrid scheme indirectly protects customer funds segregated in banks while directly safeguarding all other customer funds.

- This hybrid protection system ensures high effectiveness by safeguarding all customer funds and keeps

- insurance premium burdens low for firms and customers, as firms are incentivized to deposit most customer funds in banks.

- The hybrid protection system addresses risk transfer, in which a bank’s failure can trigger a firm’s insolvency.

- Early detection of firms facing liquidity risks is enabled by the hybrid proposal.

- KDIC’s burden under the hybrid option is not expected to be substantial.

- While the indirect protection system is easy to implement, the hybrid option requires substantial changes to the existing framework, making immediate implementation challenging.

- Recently, major developed countries have expanded the coverage of deposit insurance institutions beyond traditional deposits to include a wide range of financial and quasifinancial services, aiming to responsibly foster financial innovation.

- This study builds on such global trends to propose protection measures for customer funds in new financial products.

- The proposed protection system, with its inclusive nature, can serve as a comprehensive framework to protect and foster future innovation by capturing new financial products within its regulatory scope.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Foreign Exchange Policy in Response to Changes in Macroeconomy and Financial Markets

This study analyzes the relationship between cross-border capital flows and the foreign exchange market in Korea. It aims to propose revisions to the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act to facilitate international transactions and maintain external financial stability in light of changing macroeconomic and financial market environments.

The foreign exchange system is shaped by historical contexts, typically introduced to minimize the negative impact of currency fluctuations during events such as economic recessions or wars. However, as economies develop and financial markets grow, there is an increasing demand for the relaxation of regulatory measures on foreign exchange transactions.

As an open economy highly dependent on external trade, Korea encounters considerable risks to its economic stability from rapid fluctuations in exchange rates. Therefore, understanding the relationship among cross-border capital flows, interest rates, and exchange rates is crucial in crafting an effective foreign exchange system. Despite the projected increase in fiscal spending to address the aging population and enhance the quality of life, Korea's overall savings are expected to grow for the time being. With the domestic potential growth rate declining, it seems that the demand for private external financial investments will persist, indicating an expected increase in cross-border capital movements. The growth in private external financial investments presents an opportunity to ease regulations in the foreign exchange market, as the private sector can serve as an automatic stabilizer against exchange rate volatility by actively participating in the foreign exchange market and restoring normal rates.

Chapter 2 examines the impact of increasing domestic and international capital flows on Korea's financial markets. Analyzing the effects of foreign capital inflows using the Flows Implied by Rebalancing (FIR) index (Pandolfi & Williams, 2019), this chapter indicates that global passive fund inflows are associated with significant increases in bond prices (lower interest rates) and a strengthening of the Korean won (weaker exchange rate). These effects are more pronounced for non-reserve currency emerging market countries like Korea. Furthermore, the study investigates the impact of domestic funds' overseas investments on the foreign exchange market. It uses a synthetic control method to assess the effects of the 2017 policy that recognizes asset duration irrespective of insurance companies’ hedging practices. The findings show that an increase in domestic securities investments abroad leads to a decrease in the real effective exchange rate, resulting in a depreciation of the Korean won. However, there is no evidence that excessive demand in the foreign exchange market rises as swap rates increase, suggesting Korea’s foreign exchange market has gained stability compared to the past. An examination of the correlation between the won-dollar exchange rate volatility and the amount of net foreign assets reveals that more recently, as net foreign assets increase and the ratio of won-denominated liabilities rises, the amplitude of the net foreign asset increase due to non-trading factors tends to rise when the won depreciates, indicating the operation of an automatic stabilizer.

Chapter 3 puts forth the direction and key policy recommendations for the revision of the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act. The focus is on enhancing the efficiency of foreign exchange transactions while pursuing external stability. It suggests recognizing the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act more as a trading law than a business law, aiming to reduce overlaps with individual financial laws arising from its business law characteristics.

More specifically, Chapter 3 explores the history of Korea’s foreign exchange management policies and analyzes their characteristics and problems. Initially designed to curb the outflow of foreign exchange, these policies have since transformed to liberalize foreign exchange transactions across both current and capital accounts. However, the foreign exchange authority has maintained a conservative stance, prioritizing external soundness. Notably, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act is recognized as a business law, maintaining a bank-centric approach while regulating the foreign exchange operations of non-banking financial institutions. Furthermore, the Act adopts a listing and delegation legislative approach. As a result, the current law is not only vulnerable to changes in the external environment but also faces issues of low legal systematicity, leading to high compliance costs.

Currently, most developed nations operate without legal restrictions on foreign exchange transactions. Countries that initially introduced regulations as a response to economic crises or wars have either eliminated or considerably eased these regulations to improve national competitiveness and foster the growth of their financial industry. Japan, whose foreign exchange system has historically resembled Korea’s, opened up foreign exchange operations to non-banking financial institutions and even non-financial companies as part of its financial big bang in 1998. However, Japan has retained a regulatory role in terms of information collection and monitoring for foreign exchange transactions. It continues to inspect and supervise foreign exchange operations of individual financial institutions under the applicable financial industry laws or laws governing financial product transactions.

This study proposes revisions to Korea’s Foreign Exchange Transaction Act based on international case studies. First, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act, presently skewed towards business law characteristics, should shift its focus to underscore its role as a trading law rather than a business law. To invigorate foreign exchange transactions, the Korean government should move away from classifying foreign exchange operations as regulatory subjects and instead strengthen the monitoring and reporting systems for transactions. It is advisable to delegate regulation of foreign exchange operations to financial authorities under individual financial industry laws, with the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act stepping in only where foreign exchange operations are not covered under the relevant financial industry laws.

Second, this study recommends transitioning the regulatory approach for foreign exchange transactions under the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act from institutional to functional regulation. Functional regulation involves categorizing operations by their function and applying consistent regulations to identical activities, laying the groundwork for adapting to future changes, such as the digital transformation of finances.

Third, in response to the relaxation of foreign exchange regulations, the study suggests reinforcing liquidity and soundness for non-bank financial institutions. This compensatory measure addresses concerns associated with the shift toward functional regulation, which might essentially eliminate bank-centric practices, posing potential risks to financial stability due to the risk-taking practices of non-banking financial institutions. Specific measures include applying foreign exchange liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements for financial investment firms, enhancing the effectiveness of Net Operation Capital Ratio (NCR) regulations, strengthening the responsibilities of boards and CEOs as licensing conditions for foreign exchange operations, and ensuring continuous supervision and inspections post-authorization. This approach mitigates concerns about functional regulations compromising external soundness by adopting a ‘same taskssame riskssame regulations’ rule at the financial regulatory and supervisory level to respond to systemic risks.

Finally, the study proposes imposing prompt corrective action measures on financial institutions handling foreign exchange transactions to enhance the effectiveness of safeguards before emergencies arise. Corresponding to the extent of regulation relaxation on foreign exchange operations, the Korean government strengthens the liquidity and soundness of financial institutions engaged in foreign exchange operations by enforcing prompt corrective action when various regulatory ratios are exceeded. Such measures not only minimize the broader systemic impact in case of early-stage insolvency but also incentivize companies to uphold sound management practices.

While Korea's foreign exchange system has evolved to reflect changes over time, the pace of these changes has been notably slow. While Korea actively engages with the international community, its efforts to liberalize foreign exchange transactions are constrained as a non-key currency nation. Nevertheless, the need for reform in the current conservative foreign exchange system persists for the sake of economic and capital market development.

Despite Korea’s orientation toward an open economy, its view on openness has traditionally centered around trade. From the early stages of economic development, exports have served as the primary engine of Korea’s economic growth, leading to minimal regulations on current account transactions. Consequently, foreign exchange transactions related to current account activities have been freely permitted. On the contrary, foreign exchange transactions for capital account activities have faced stringent regulations. While strict control over foreign exchange transactions might initially boost financial stability, it could also lower overall economic efficiency and potentially decelerate economic growth. Furthermore, ensuring financial stability requires collaborative efforts and coordinated actions among monetary, fiscal, financial, and financial supervisory authorities to enhance the stability of the financial system.

In conclusion, the study advocates for a significant easing of the regulations on foreign exchange transactions in Korea, recommending adjustments to match the current economic conditions and national competitiveness strategy. Korea’s financial institutions are positioned to lead the development of the financial system, especially as global portfolio diversification emerges as an economically efficient choice. This shift is happening against a backdrop of declining potential growth rates and rising demand for both domestic capital investments abroad and foreign capital investments within Korea. Therefore, it is imperative for the Korean government to comprehensively reassess restrictive regulations that hinder the global expansion of financial institutions, with the restrictions imposed by the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act as a prime example of such regulation in need of thorough reevaluation.

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