■ Real private consumption growth continues to slow alongside real economic growth. Considering other factors, recent trends suggest that the trend growth rate of real private consumption is currently in the mid-1% range.

- Given the potential growth rate near 2%, the decreased share of nominal private consumption in GDP due to increased government consumption, and the falling relative price of GDP to private consumption, sustaining the growth trend of real private consumption above the mid-1% range appears unlikely.

- Without substantial structural changes, real private consumption growth is expected to continue its downward trend along with falling potential growth.

■ Assessing recent developments from this perspective, private consumption growth appears to be converging toward its mid-to-long-term trajectory, rebounding from 0.9% in Q2 to 1.3% in Q3.

- The estimated private consumption growth rate for 2025 is in the high-1% range, below the actual rates recorded from 2017 to 2019 (2.8%) and recent potential growth (around 2%). However, as this estimate surpasses the projected trend growth, it implies easing in the private consumption slowdown.

· In 2025, potential rate cuts and export improvements may positively impact private consumption.

■ Accordingly, policy efforts should prioritize stimulating private consumption in the mid-to-long term: structural reforms to mitigate the declining potential growth rate, cautious expansion in government consumption, and strengthening export competitiveness to achieve higher value-added output.

- Over the long term, enhancing productivity is essential for bolstering economic dynamism since income constitutes the foundation of private consumption.

· The development and diffusion of production technology through R&D and education should be actively promoted, along with efforts to increase overall economic flexibility to improve resource allocation efficiency.

- Additionally, to prevent government consumption expansion from limiting private consumption capacity, it should be approached with caution, focusing on enhancing expenditure efficiency.

- Moreover, to address the trend of export prices growing more slowly than import prices, it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity for value-added export generation through advanced technological development.