This study aims to empirically analyze the market formation of North Korea since the 1990s, using the currently applicable general data and analysis methodology. Accordingly, this study takes following steps. First, it outlines the market formation process of North Korea since the 1990s, and then describes North Korea’s market structure of today. Thereafter, the study discusses on more empirical analysis of the North Korean market by discussing which subject needs to be tackled using which method and data. Through this process, this study succeeds in drawing the following four empirical issues relating to the market formation of North Korea: 1) Size or proportion of the market within the North Korean economy; 2) trend of this proportion or size; 3) maturity of the market transaction; and 4) participation motives for market transactions. Meanwhile, the study fully recognizes that more systematic analysis on these subjects would not be made possible with the simple data alone made from testaments given by North Korean defectors and it therefore emphasizes the necessity of more systemic and comprehensive conclusion by combining the result of systemic analysis of the North’s other macroeconomic statistics data.

Based on the above discussions, this study conducts a survey on North Korean defectors relating to the above four issues and analyzes their results. At the same time, using the North’s official data, the study once again analyzes each issue. Naturally, the conclusion of this study is only drawn after combining and comparing the results from both analyses whose data and methodologies are completely different from each other. Though schematic, the conclusion can be summarized as follows.

First, the analysis of the market formation phenomenon of North Korea based on the survey results shows that the proportion of market in the income of North Korean people accounts for minimum 65% and maximum 76%. Not much difference is found for activities of North Korean companies. As for North Korean companies, the proportion of planning accounts for only 31.7% in procurement and 37% in product sales.

Second, no tendency is found for the market growth over time. However, a few indicators, such as the number of markets near residential areas and items unavailable in the market, demonstrate that the market has been matured further entering the 2000s.

Third, the market ratio in the total food distribution estimated using the North’s food distribution statistics recorded minimum 18% and maximum 35% as of the farming year of 1997 and 1998. However, the estimated market size is quite different from the estimation by the defector survey. A noteworthy fact is that the market size estimation by the defector survey can be rationally explained by the market size estimation based on the official data, but not vice versa. Indeed, in the measurement of the inequality degree of food distribution by class, maximum 70% of the North Koreans must participate in the market transaction for their survival, and maximum 20% of those 70% seems to be almost entirely dependent on the food they obtain from the market. Considering it is highly likely that the defectors responding to the survey are among those 20%, it is possible that the estimated market proportion by the survey could reach far beyond 70%, although the actual market proportion accounts for only maximum 35%.

Fourth, the North’s market price statistics imply more matured market transaction in the 2000s, compared to the 1990s. This is because in the 2000s, the average 81% of the regional price gaps have vanished as the market prices of each region have converged to the average price.

Fifth, the regression analysis of the participation motive for market (food) transactions by regions reveals highly complicated results which could not be explained by a single perspective. Some find the motive from self-seeking efforts for survival, while others find the motive from economic incentives, such as income increase. However, a single truth in both cases is that it is not wise to simply assume that the market participation by North Koreans since the 2000s is the self-seeking efforts for survival as it was in the past.

제1장 머리말

제2장 북한의 시장화와 실증적 시장 연구의 쟁점
　제1절 북한의 시장화 과정과 범위
　　1. 초기 시장화의 과정과 원인
　　2. 1990년대 시장화의 형태와 범위-개별 경제주체와 계획
　　3. 1990년대 후반 및 2000년대의 시장화 범위-제도화
　　4. 2000년대 중반 이후 시장화의 역풍
　제2절 북한의 시장－제도와 구조
　　1. 공식적 시장제도
　　2. 수요와 공급
　　3. 시장구조-시장거래
　제3절 북한 시장에 대한 기존의 실증연구와 쟁점
　　1. 북한 시장화 연구의 배경
　　2. 기존의 실증연구 검토
　　3. 북한 시장에 대한 실증연구의 쟁점

제3장 미시적 설문조사 데이터를 이용한 분석
　제1절 탈북자 설문조사의 설계
　　1. 탈북자 설문조사의 기본 문제
　　2. 설문조사의 설계
　　3. 분석 대상의 선정
　제2절 개인 및 가구 소득의 시장화 분석
　　1. 기본 지표의 설정과 분석
　　2. 가구의 시장화 결정요인 회귀분석-결과 및 해석
　　3. 토론 및 개인소득 시장화 비율의 재산정
　제3절 기업 활동의 시장화 분석-자재조달, 생산물 판매 및 노동력 관리
　　1. 기본 지표의 설정과 분석
　　2. 기업활동 시장화의 결정요인 회귀분석-결과 및 해석
　　3. 토 론
　제4절 시장거래의 성숙도 분석-시장의 수와 구입 불능 품목
　　1. 기본 지표의 설정과 분석
　　2. 시장거래 성숙도 결정요인 회귀분석-결과 및 해석
　　3. 토 론

제4장 북한의 거시통계를 이용한 분석
　제1절 북한의 식량분배 통계를 이용한 시장규모 추정
　　1. 추정 방법
　　2. 공식 식량통계의 재구성
　　3. 추정 결과의 제시 및 해석
　　4. 추정 결과의 검증-배급제하에서의 불균등 분배와 시사점
　　5. 토 론
　제2절 지역별 시장가격 변화를 이용한 시장거래 성숙도 분석
　　1. 분석 방법
　　2. 분석 결과의 제시와 해석
　　3. 토 론
　제3절 지역별 시장 참여 데이터를 이용한 시장화 동기 분석
　　1. 분석 방법
　　2. 회귀분석 결과의 제시 및 해석
　　3. 토 론

제5장 맺음말

참고문헌