contents go

KDI - Korea Development Institute

KDI - Korea Development Institute



Policy Study Risk Assessment of Korean Households’ Indebtedness: Evidence from CB Data December 20, 2012


Series No. 2012-06

Policy Study KOR Risk Assessment of Korean Households’ Indebtedness: Evidence from CB Data #Consumer Finance #Risk Management
DOI P-ISBN978-89-8063-675-4 E-ISBN979-11-5932-416-1

December 20, 2012

  • KDI
    Kim, Young Il
  • KDI
We analyze and assess the risk of Korean households' indebtedness based on credit bureau(CB) data. In particular, obligers' credit risk is stress-tested while the size and characteristics of vulnerable obligers are identified in this micro-level analysis.

The present study shows that the share of the overly-indebted has increased while households' risk-adjustment processes at the micro-level have weakened since the global financial crisis in 2008. This result implies that credit risks of the indebted households have increased so that the household sector has become less resilient to external shocks during the period. In particular, the overly-indebted, the obligers from multiple nonbank financial institutions and the self-employed borrowers seem vulnerable so that their overall picture and characteristics are analyzed and documented in this study. In addition, there are a relatively large number of vulnerable obligers belonging to the brackets of low income and low credit worthiness so that social issues such as rising delinquencies may arise if the overall economic conditions suddenly deteriorated due to unexpected shocks for example. Nevertheless, it is not very likely for financial stability to be heavily damaged because the amount of personal loans held by the risky obligers are relatively small compared with the total amount of household debt.

There is a rising concern that personal loans may be exposed to higher risks as the GDP growth rates slow down while the global economy remains uncertain. The assessment of the impact of stress scenarios corresponding to the 2008 global financial crisis on the delinquencies shows that the nonbank borrowers, the self-employed and the indebted from multiple nonbank financial institutions could be financially distressed if the overall economic conditions were suddenly worsened. In addition, the credit risks of personal loans could be heightened due to supply side factors or financial market conditions if macroeconomic conditions suddenly change even without increases in the debt-servicing burden of households.

The results of the present research may contribute to understanding the risk structure of household indebtedness and designing policy directions for financial as well as social stability.
요 약

제1장 서 론

제2장 관련 선행연구

제3장 분석자료와 위험도 평가방법
 제1절 분석자료
  1. 표본자료 설명
  2. 표본자료의 주요 특징과 분석상의 유의점
 제2절 위험도 평가방법

제4장 개인부문 부채 현황과 부채누증의 주요 특징
 제1절 개인부문 부채의 주요 현황
  1. 개인부문의 부채 현황
  2. 소득분위별 부채 현황
  3. 신용등급별 부채 현황
  4. 종사상 지위별 부채 현황
  5. 대출업권⋅상품별 부채 현황
  6. 연령⋅지역별 부채 현황
 제2절 개인부채 누증의 주요 특징

제5장 개인부채의 위험도 평가
 제1절 과다채무의 최근 추이
  1. 과다채무자와 부채액의 최근 추이
  2. LTI/DSR 구간별 차입자와 부채액의 연도별 분포
 제2절 채무조정의 활성화 정도 평가
 제3절 개인부채의 주요 항목별 취약성 평가
  1. 소득분위별 취약성 평가
  2. 신용등급별 취약성 평가
  3. 대출업권별 취약성 평가
  4. 종사상 지위⋅연령⋅지역별 취약성 평가

제6장 취약차주의 주요 특징
 제1절 과다채무자의 주요 특징
 제2절 다중채무자의 주요 특징
 제3절 자영업종사 차주의 주요 특징
 제4절 연체차주의 주요 특징

제7장 개인부문 부채에 대한 스트레스 테스트
 제1절 스트레스 테스트 방법
 제2절 스트레스 테스트 결과 및 해석
  1. 평균 연체발생빈도에 대한 스트레스 테스트
  2. 대출업권별 연체발생빈도에 대한 스트레스 테스트
  3. 종사상 지위별 연체발생빈도에 대한 스트레스 테스트
  4. 다중채무자 연체발생빈도에 대한 스트레스 테스트

제8장 결론: 요약 및 정책적 시사점

related materials ( 9 )
  • Key related materials
Join our Newsletter

World's Leading Think Tank, Korea Development Institute

Security code

We reject unauthorized collection of email addresses posted on our website by using email address collecting programs or other technical devices. To access the email address, please type in the characters exactly as they appear in the box below.

KDI Staff Information

Please enter the security code to prevent unauthorized information collection.

KDI Staff Information

Please check the contact information.

KDI Staff Information

Please check the contact information.