Research Monograph The Impact of DPRK Sanctions and North Korea’s Economic Future December 31, 2021

Series No. 2021-01
December 31, 2021
- Summary
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This study aims to provide an understanding of the significance and impact of the stronger sanctions than were enforced against North Korea from 2016. To that end, it first discusses the concept of DPRK sanctions. The discussion begins with a comparison of past and present sanctions against North Korea, and then explores the US’ perspective and the commonalities and differences between the present DPRK sanctions and sanctions against other nations, such as Iran. This is followed by an analysis of the economic impact on North Korea from 2016-17 to the present. Specifically, the North Korean economy was divided into trade, industry, foreign exchange, markets and the informal sector, and food and agriculture, and an analysis was conducted on how each area was affected and to what extent. While the analysis is based on empirical data, it also looks into the qualitative information observed from the North Korean economy. Lastly, this study examines the economic repercussions of sanctions in relation to the future of the North Korean economy. By employing new perspectives and data to analyze the qualitative, not quantitative, impact of sanctions on trade, which is tied to North Korea's economic growth, it discusses the growth trajectory of North Korea when sanctions are maintained and when they are lifted.
- Contents
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Preface
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
Section 1: Purpose and Characteristics of the Study
Section 2: Methodology
Section 3: Structure of the Study
Section 4: Limitations and Significance
Chapter 2: Historical Perspective of Sanctions on North Korea
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: South Korea
Section 3: United States
Section 4: Japan
Section 5: United Nations
Section 6: Conclusion
Chapter 3: Features and Structure of International Sanctions on North Korea
Section 1: U.S. Regulations that Neutralize the Effectiveness of Sanctions and North Korea's Irrational Pricing System
Section 2: U.S. Tariff Rates in 2016 and North Korean Exports to China
Section 3: Executive Orders and Other U.S. Sanctions
Section 4: UN Security Council Nuclear Sanctions
Section 5: Surprisingly Serious Economic Impacts
Section 6: The Future of Sanctions: Focusing on Incentives is More Important
Chapter 4: Comparison of Sanctions on Iran (2010-12) and North Korea (2016-17)
Section 1: Overview of the International Multilateral Sanctions Regime
Section 2: Similarities between International Sanctions on Iran and North Korea
Section 3: Differences between Sanctions on Iran and North Korea
Section 4: Comparison of Sanctions' Effectiveness
Section 5: Conclusion
Chapter 5: North Korean Sanctions and North Korean Foreign Trade
Section 1: International Sanctions on North Korea Related to Trade
Section 2: Impact of Sanctions on North Korea
Section 3: Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sanctions on North Korea
Section 4: Impact of COVID-19
Section 5: Evaluation and Implications
Appendix
Chapter 6: Impact of Sanctions on North Korean Industries Through Trade: Focusing on Agriculture, Forestry, and Mining and Manufacturing Industries
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Impact of Sanctions on North Korea's Trade Industry
Section 3: Comprehensive Discussion and Policy Implications
Section 4: Conclusion
Chapter 7: Impact of International Sanctions on North Korean Foreign Currency Supply from 2016 to 2020
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Enhanced Sanctions on North Korea Since 2016
Section 3: Implications of Previous Studies on North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply Before 2016
Section 4: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply from 2016 to 2019
Section 5: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply in 2020
Section 6: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Reserves
Section 7: Implications and Conclusion
Chapter 8: Impact of Strengthened Sanctions on the North Korean Market
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Dual Economic Structure of North Korea
Section 3: Impact of Sanctions: Official vs. Informal Sectors
Section 4: Impact of Sanctions on the North Korean Market: Focusing on Market Price Changes
Section 5: Assessment and Prospects
Chapter 9: Is It a Recurrence of Famine? - Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Economic and Humanitarian Impact of UN Sanctions -
Section 1: Analysis Data
Section 2: Expansion of UN Sanctions
Section 3: Humanitarian Impact of UN Sanctions on Children
Chapter 10: Analysis of the Qualitative Changes in North Korean Trade and Sanctions on North Korea - Implications for North Korean Growth from the 2000s Sanctions by Japan and South Korea -
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Design - Subjects of Analysis, Methodology, and Data
Section 3: Analysis 1 - Measuring Qualitative Changes in North Korean Trade
Section 4: Analysis 2 - Tracking Changes in the Product Structure of North Korean Trade
Section 5: Analysis 3 - Estimating Changes in North Korean Export Prices
Section 6: Conclusion
Chapter 11: Sanctions on North Korea and Future Economic Growth of North Korea
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Review of Existing Studies
Section 3: Methodology of Analysis and Statistical Data
Section 4: Forecasting North Korean Economic Growth
Section 5: Summary and Implications
Chapter 12: Conclusion
Section 1: Facts Discovered through Analysis and Discussion
Section 2: Several Hypotheses Explaining the Discovered Facts and Their Implications
References
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