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Research Monograph The Impact of DPRK Sanctions and North Korea’s Economic Future December 31, 2021

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Series No. 2021-01

Research Monograph KOR The Impact of DPRK Sanctions and North Korea’s Economic Future #Foreign Trade of North Korea #North-South Korean Economic Cooperation/Policy on North Korea/Unification Policy #General(Other)
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.rm.2021.01 P-ISBN979-11-5932-704-9 E-ISBN979-11-5932-707-0

December 31, 2021

  • 프로필
    Suk Lee
  • KDI
    Duol KIM
  • KDI
    Sukha Shin
  • KDI
    Hyoungsoo Zang
  • 프로필
    Jongkyu Lee
  • KDI
  • 프로필
    Kyoochul Kim
  • KDI
  • KDI
  • KDI
    Ji-Young Choi
Summary
This study aims to provide an understanding of the significance and impact of the stronger sanctions than were enforced against North Korea from 2016. To that end, it first discusses the concept of DPRK sanctions. The discussion begins with a comparison of past and present sanctions against North Korea, and then explores the US’ perspective and the commonalities and differences between the present DPRK sanctions and sanctions against other nations, such as Iran. This is followed by an analysis of the economic impact on North Korea from 2016-17 to the present. Specifically, the North Korean economy was divided into trade, industry, foreign exchange, markets and the informal sector, and food and agriculture, and an analysis was conducted on how each area was affected and to what extent. While the analysis is based on empirical data, it also looks into the qualitative information observed from the North Korean economy. Lastly, this study examines the economic repercussions of sanctions in relation to the future of the North Korean economy. By employing new perspectives and data to analyze the qualitative, not quantitative, impact of sanctions on trade, which is tied to North Korea's economic growth, it discusses the growth trajectory of North Korea when sanctions are maintained and when they are lifted.
Contents
Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction
 Section 1: Purpose and Characteristics of the Study
 Section 2: Methodology
 Section 3: Structure of the Study
 Section 4: Limitations and Significance

Chapter 2: Historical Perspective of Sanctions on North Korea
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: South Korea
 Section 3: United States
 Section 4: Japan
 Section 5: United Nations
 Section 6: Conclusion

Chapter 3: Features and Structure of International Sanctions on North Korea
 Section 1: U.S. Regulations that Neutralize the Effectiveness of Sanctions and North Korea's Irrational Pricing System
 Section 2: U.S. Tariff Rates in 2016 and North Korean Exports to China
 Section 3: Executive Orders and Other U.S. Sanctions
 Section 4: UN Security Council Nuclear Sanctions
 Section 5: Surprisingly Serious Economic Impacts
 Section 6: The Future of Sanctions: Focusing on Incentives is More Important

Chapter 4: Comparison of Sanctions on Iran (2010-12) and North Korea (2016-17)
 Section 1: Overview of the International Multilateral Sanctions Regime
 Section 2: Similarities between International Sanctions on Iran and North Korea
 Section 3: Differences between Sanctions on Iran and North Korea
 Section 4: Comparison of Sanctions' Effectiveness
 Section 5: Conclusion

Chapter 5: North Korean Sanctions and North Korean Foreign Trade
 Section 1: International Sanctions on North Korea Related to Trade
 Section 2: Impact of Sanctions on North Korea
 Section 3: Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sanctions on North Korea
 Section 4: Impact of COVID-19
 Section 5: Evaluation and Implications
Appendix

Chapter 6: Impact of Sanctions on North Korean Industries Through Trade: Focusing on Agriculture, Forestry, and Mining and Manufacturing Industries
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: Impact of Sanctions on North Korea's Trade Industry
 Section 3: Comprehensive Discussion and Policy Implications
 Section 4: Conclusion

Chapter 7: Impact of International Sanctions on North Korean Foreign Currency Supply from 2016 to 2020
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: Enhanced Sanctions on North Korea Since 2016
 Section 3: Implications of Previous Studies on North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply Before 2016
 Section 4: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply from 2016 to 2019
 Section 5: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Supply in 2020
 Section 6: Estimation of North Korea's Foreign Currency Reserves
 Section 7: Implications and Conclusion

Chapter 8: Impact of Strengthened Sanctions on the North Korean Market
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: Dual Economic Structure of North Korea
 Section 3: Impact of Sanctions: Official vs. Informal Sectors
 Section 4: Impact of Sanctions on the North Korean Market: Focusing on Market Price Changes
 Section 5: Assessment and Prospects

Chapter 9: Is It a Recurrence of Famine? - Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Economic and Humanitarian Impact of UN Sanctions -
 Section 1: Analysis Data
 Section 2: Expansion of UN Sanctions
 Section 3: Humanitarian Impact of UN Sanctions on Children

Chapter 10: Analysis of the Qualitative Changes in North Korean Trade and Sanctions on North Korea - Implications for North Korean Growth from the 2000s Sanctions by Japan and South Korea -
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: Design - Subjects of Analysis, Methodology, and Data
 Section 3: Analysis 1 - Measuring Qualitative Changes in North Korean Trade
 Section 4: Analysis 2 - Tracking Changes in the Product Structure of North Korean Trade
 Section 5: Analysis 3 - Estimating Changes in North Korean Export Prices
 Section 6: Conclusion

Chapter 11: Sanctions on North Korea and Future Economic Growth of North Korea
 Section 1: Introduction
 Section 2: Review of Existing Studies
 Section 3: Methodology of Analysis and Statistical Data
 Section 4: Forecasting North Korean Economic Growth
 Section 5: Summary and Implications

Chapter 12: Conclusion
 Section 1: Facts Discovered through Analysis and Discussion
 Section 2: Several Hypotheses Explaining the Discovered Facts and Their Implications

References
ABSTRACT
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