Policy Study The Impact of External Uncertainty Shocks in Korean Economy December 31, 2022
Series No. 2022-05
December 31, 2022
This paper explores the effects of external uncertainty on South Korea’s real economy. By exploiting variations in geopolitical risks posed by Russia and the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy ― both of which are plausibly exogenous to the Korean economy, the study reveals that such uncertainties negatively impact Korea’s key domestic macroeconomic variables. Notably, this adverse effect is distinctively evident in sectors like exports and manufacturing due to their high sensitivity to external demand dynamics. Using micro-data, the study further indicates that external uncertainty significantly reduces (i) exports to low-income countries and (ii) exports of capital goods. Additionally, the analysis confirms that financial constraints and the irreversibility of investment decisions play pivotal roles in amplifying the effects of external uncertainties.
This study enriches the existing literature by quantifying the impact of external uncertainty using novel instruments ― the geopolitical risk emanating from Russia and the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy. These findings can offer insights that can guide the formation of resilient policy, aptly designed for a dynamic external landscape, while providing a comprehensive understanding of how external uncertainty influences real economy at both macro and mirco levels.
제1장 서 론
제3장 대외 불확실성 척도
제1절 러시아 지정학적 위험과 미 통화정책 불확실성
제4장 대외 불확실성의 파급영향: 거시분석
제1절 대외 불확실성이 국내 거시변수에 미치는 영향
제2절 대외 불확실성의 전파경로: 세계교역량 감소경로를 중심으로
제5장 대외 불확실성의 파급영향: 미시분석
제1절 대외 불확실성이 국내 수출에 미치는 영향
제2절 대외 불확실성이 기업의 투자결정에 미치는 영향
제6장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
- Key related materials
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