Introduction

This paper aims to provide a general overview of the North Korean economy For outside experts, the North Korean economy in 2019 was unique. The enduring discord and conflict that has long accompanied discussions over North Korea were almost non-existent. Instead, a legion of contentious issues on the future direction began to emerge; threatening to spark irreconcilable discord among scholars.

Although very little is actually known, there is a slew of varying views and opinions that serve to polarize the outside world’s assessment of North Korea. Indeed, it has become the norm for some to declare that the North Korean economy is recovering while others contend that it is far from it. Interestingly, however, there was little dissonance in 2019. Experts were united in asserting that the North Korean economy was still faced with the struggles brought forth by the strict international sanctions. This was supported by the movements and stance of the North Korean regime who, throughout the year, alluded to a lifting of sanctions and appeared to openly acknowledge the economic difficulties resulting from them. In any case, it is still intriguing to see a consensus had formed.

More interestingly, though, new issues arose in 2019 that could shatter this new found harmony and drive a deeper wedge between the opposing sides. In fact, if we delve deeper into the general agreement among scholars about the overall flow of the North Korean economy in 2019, we are able to see that each came to the same conclusion using very different approaches; which could divide opinions about the future direction in 2020 and beyond. Although these are not new issues, the North Korean economy has, without a doubt, become the center of renewed attention.

Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic trends of the North Korean economy in 2019–along with eight other dissertations–and to provide a brief commentary about the prospects for 2020.1 Specifically, this study aims to accomplish three tasks. The first is to assess the eight dissertations in order to create a general explanatory framework and provide a comprehensive assessment of the North Korean macroeconomic trends in 2019. The second is to introduce the various new issues, and to provide a summary of the explanatory hypotheses and approaches to each. Finally, based on the above, the third is to provide a brief prediction about the North Korean economy in 2020 and to review the major relevant issues.

* This article is part of 2019 The DPRK Economic Outlook

For more, please refer to the attached file.