Preface

As in previous years, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un emphasized the importance of agricultural policy in his new year’s address in 2018. Pyongyang’s agricultural policy, as illustrated in the New Year’s address, was aimed at achieving significant growth in the agricultural and fisheries sectors, embracing high-quality breeds, high-yielding farming methods and efficient agricultural machinery, accomplishing the grain production target through scientific and technological approaches, and increasing the output of livestock products, fruits, greenhouse vegetables and mushrooms. Although North Korea announces various key points of its agricultural policy every year in pursuit of boosting agricultural output, the country has yet to overcome its food shortage.

In 2017, North Korea failed to achieve its food production target. The Rural Development Administration (RDA)1 in South Korea assumed that the slight drop in grain output in North Korea in 2017 was attributed to unfavorable weather conditions. While the decrease in 2017 does not necessarily suggest that food supply will continue to decline in 2018, it is at least difficult to expect better supply of food and agricultural products in North Korea in 2018.

Meanwhile, the key factors in short-term forecasting for the agricultural industry in North Korea include economic sanctions against North Korea and their impact. Since agricultural production and food supply are associated with humanitarian issues unlike other sectors, there will be no direct sanction imposed on the agricultural industry, although the country may see an indirect impact. If a decrease in overall exports leads to a foreign currency shortage, or if restrictions are placed on overseas transactions and shipping, the country may find it challenging to import agricultural products and resources. Moreover, humanitarian aid from the international society may decline by a certain extent.

This report examines the recent agricultural trend across North Korea from two aspects: i) the overall drop in food production in North Korea in 2017, and ii) the impact of international sanctions on North Korea’s agricultural sector, as shown in the relevant data.

* This article is part of 2017 The DPRK Economic Outlook

For more, please refer to the attached file.