KDI JEP House Price Channel: Effects of House Prices on Macroeconomy November 29, 2014
November 29, 2014
This paper investigates the manner in which house prices affect macroeconomic variables through a house price channel by applying the method of Iacoviello (2005) to Korean data, and establishing a DSGE model with complementarity. This paper found that higher LTV ratio coupled with stronger complementarity results in the co-movement in both consumption and housing. For instance, the results show that when the LTV ratio and complementarity stands respectively at 50% and 0.42, an 1% rise in house prices increases consumption by 0.057%, and when the complementarity parameter increases to 0.52 with LTV remains unchanged at 50%, consumption rises by 0.047% per 1% increase in house prices. An increase in house prices leads credit constraints for borrowers to become more loose as value of a house rises as a collateral. The increase in household credit enables more consumer spending, eventually leading to increased consumption. A key link in which house prices are connected to macroeconomic variables is change in consumption. To put it simply, a rise in house prices leads to an increase in consumption, which consequently impacts the overall macro-economy. At this point, complementarity is found, in that the elasticity of intra-temporal substitution between housing and consumption is estimated at 0.42, which plays an important role in the house price channel by amplifying the effects of house prices on consumption.
- Contents
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Ⅰ. 서 론
1. 전형적 사실(stylized facts): 주택 관련 변수와 경제성장
2. 기존 문헌 고찰
Ⅱ. 동태적·확률적 일반균형(DSGE)모형의 구성
1. 대출가계
2. 차입가계
3. 중간재 생산자
4. 최종소비재 생산자
5. 중앙은행
6. 일반균형을 위한 정상상태
7. 캘리브레이션과 추정
가. 캘리브레이션(calibration) 및 모수화(parameterization)
나. 추정
Ⅲ. 시뮬레이션 결과
1. DSGE 모형 내에서의 주택가격채널
2. 주택가격과 거시경제의 시뮬레이션 결과
가. 주택가격과 소비: 기간내대체탄력성의 변화효과 1
나. 주택가격과 소비: 기간내대체탄력성의 변화효과 2
다. 주택가격과 소비: LTV 비율 변화의 효과
라. 대출가계와 차입가계의 소비
3. 주택가격과 총생산: LTV 비율 변화의 효과
4. 주택가격과 금리: LTV 비율 변화의 효과
5. 연구의 한계와 향후 연구과제
Ⅳ. 결어: 연구 결과 요약과 정책적 시사점
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