KDI JEP Trump Tariffs and Roundabout Trade August 31, 2024
August 31, 2024
Although there are many news articles of tariff dodging via the rerouting of made-in-China goods through third countries, relabeling these goods as made in Mexico or made in Vietnam, there have been no scientific studies on this issue. This paper provides statistical evidence regarding whether such practices are taking place. Using monthly trade statistics at the most disaggregated level and analyzing data up to 2019, the year before the COVID-19 shock, little evidence of roundabout trade is found. With an extended dataset up to 2023, overall there is little sign of roundabout trade, although some slight signs of roundabout trade are found for Mexico and Vietnam.
- Contents
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Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Data and methodologies
Ⅲ. Descriptive analyses
Ⅳ. Estimation analyses
Ⅴ. Extended period
Ⅵ. Another estimation model as a robustness check
Ⅶ. Estimation for dubious product categories
Ⅷ. Conclusion
APPENDIX
REFERENCES
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