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KDI JEP Heterogeneous Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade War on Korea: What Drives Industry Differences? November 30, 2025

KDI JEP
KDI JEP Heterogeneous Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade War on Korea: What Drives Industry Differences?

November 30, 2025

  • 프로필
    Heehyun Lim

This paper analyzes how the U.S.China trade war affected Korean industries and identifies the industry characteristics that determined which industries gained or lost. I show that heterogeneity in responses is closely linked to capital intensity and export intensity, highlighting the role of economies of scale and export readiness. Using detailed industry-level data from Korean manufacturing, the analysis finds that capital-intensive industries with substantial pre-war investments and industries with high export intensity achieved greater growth and cost reductions following the tariff shocks. These findings indicate that industries positioned to expand their scale captured the gains, while others were left behind, emphasizing the importance of targeted and differentiated policy support for pre-investment, capital deepening, and export infrastructure ultimately to enable more industries to leverage external trade disruptions as opportunities for sustained growth.

Contents
 I. Introduction
 II. Tariff Cross-Elasticity and its Components
 III. Impact of the U.S.China Trade War on Korean Industries
 IV. Conclusion
 APPENDIX
 REFERENCES
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