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Policy Study Changes in Trade Structure between China and Korea and Macroeconomic Implications December 31, 2008

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Series No. 2008-15

Policy Study KOR Changes in Trade Structure between China and Korea and Macroeconomic Implications #Consumption, Investment, Export-Import, and Balance of Payments #Trade
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.ps.2008.15 P-ISBN978-89-8063-368-5

December 31, 2008

  • KDI
    Siwook Lee
Summary
This study reviews the recent changes in export structure between Korea and China by applying analysis methods which have not been attempted in domestic literature so far, such as the analyses of product diversity and concentration, export sustainability, and product supplementary index.

According to the analysis that uses the Hummels and Klenow (2005) method to identify Korea’s increasing export proportion in the Chinese market following product diversity and concentration, during the period between 2000 and 2006, product diversity slightly decreased, while product concentration increased by 19.0%. Such result indicates that Korea’s export products to China are mostly focused on components and capital goods that Korea has the higher competitive edge in.

On the other hand, components and cap-ital goods are found to have higher export sustainability than other commodities, such as primary commodities and consumer goods. For primary commodities, such as high tech& semi-manufactured goods, high-tech consumer goods and others, 75% were no longer exported in four years since their first export. But, 15% of components and capital goods recorded a continued export between 1992and 2006, regardless of their technical level.

Lastly, when evaluating export and complementary structures of China, Japan and Korea according to the analysis of product supplementary index, the complementary relationship between Korea’s export structure and China’s import structure seems most high. Although recently, the growth rate of Korea’s export share in the Chinese market is at a standstill, the complementary relationship between Korea’s export structure and China’s import structure still shows increasing trend.

Conclusively, it appears that China has acted as a positive opportunity factor for the Korean economy through export. A proper application of this could be likely to continue the robust growth in exports given the high complementary relationship between Korea’s export structure and China’s import structure. However, it is expected that the rising production cost will result in transfer of foreign companies’ production bases and technology competitive edge of Korea to China. In this regard, in order to continue Korea’s robust growth in exports to China, policy consideration should be made for turning components and capital goods to high value-added products on a consistent basis and enhancing diversity and competitive edge of consumer exports goods that target the Chinese market.
Contents
제1장 서 론
 제1절 연구의 배경
 제2절 보고서의 구성

제2장 중국 교역구조의 고찰
 제1절 중국 교역구조의 주요 특징
  1. 외국인투자기업 중심의 교역구조
  2. 해외의존형 생산구조
  3. 교역구조 고도화의 진전
 제2절 우리나라의 대중국 교역구조의 주요 특징
  1. 중간재 및 자본재 위주의 수출구조
  2. 가공무역형 교역구조
  3. 직접투자 연계형 교역구조

제3장 대중국 교역구조의 변화 추이 분석
 제1절 기초 통계자료의 구축 및 요약
 제2절 제품의 다양도 및 집약도 분석
  1. 분석의 중요성
  2. 이론적 배경
  3. 분석방법론
  4. 분석결과
  5. 보론: 우리나라의 대중국 수입구조
 제3절 기타 분석
  1. 제품지속성 분석
  2. 상품보완도지수 분석

제4장 요약 및 정책적 시사점

참고문헌
부 록
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