The participation of private capital in public infrastructure (PPP) investment projects has been sought by Korea governments since 1994 to overcome mainly budgetary constraints and foster economic growth. With more than 20 years' experiences in the PPP, establishing the institutional setting for a mature PPP market has been succeeded. However, there are still facing challenges that need to be resolved to vitalize the PPP. In particular, minimizing the traffic forecasting risk and identification of the value of the risk in PPP road projects are emerged as key factors which can move forward.

This paper suggests a way to identify the traffic demand risk and assess the market value of the risk in PPP road projects. The variation of forecasted traffic is analyzed according to the changes of given origin-destination demand, and the volatility and growth rate of the traffic in PPP road projects are estimated based on the operated PPP and government funded toll road projects. To simulate future traffic, the future traffic's variation is assumed to be followed on the Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM). While, Capital Asset Pricing Model is applied to estimate the traffic demand risk premium using the construction companies' stock market data from July 2001 to December 2011.

It is concluded that the market price of the traffic demand risk ranges 0.42~0.45 implying when the volatility of traffic demand is changed by 1%,, the traffic risk premium is changed by 0.42%~ 0.45%.

It is expected that the mark price of the risk can be used to assess the value of guarantees which are related to the traffic and allows the government to analyze the cost/benefit of each level of support. It also enables to propose alternative to limit exposure of the government while still maintaining the benefits to the private sector.

발간사
요 약

제1장 연구의 배경 및 목적

제2장 도로 교통수요 예측의 불확실성
　제1절 도로 교통수요 예측
　제2절 도로 교통수요 예측위험
　제3절 기존의 교통량 예측위험가치 연구

제3장 민간투자 도로사업의 교통량 예측위험가치 추정
　제1절 서론
　제2절 교통량 예측위험가치 산정모형
　　 1. 개요
　　 2. 자본자산 가격결정모형의 베타값 추정
　　 3. 민간투자사업의 가치변동성 추정

제4장 민간투자 도로사업의 교통량 예측위험가치 산정
　제1절 사례 사업
　제2절 베타값 및 출자자의 교통량 예측 리스크 프리미엄
　제3절 예측 교통량(협약 교통량)의 분산 및 프로젝트의 가치변동성
　제4절 교통량 예측위험가치

제5장 종합 및 결론

참고문헌
ABSTRACT