The housing sector in Korea is currently undergoing several structural changes. Aging population, shrinking household size, and slowing economic growth represent on-going transitions in the demand side. Meanwhile, resolving the chronic housing shortage, at least in the national level, along with shifting policy focus from the government-driven mass production of affordable owning units toward various rental housing services for low- and moderate- income households are some of major changes in the supply and policy sides. Furthermore, the rising role of financing since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997~97, for consumers as well as for producers, became another critical element that shapes market outcomes in the sector.

This research monograph contains research findings from a year-long research project sponsored by Korea Development Institute (KDI), which investigates sources of systemic risk from this transitioning housing sector in Korea, their expected impacts on market outcomes, and appropriate policy responses to deal with them. In particular, the following three areas represent the main subjects of our inquiry: consequence of aging and other demographic changes in the housing sector; effectiveness of alternative policy instruments to stabilize the housing market; and, development of rental housing market and housing welfare policies. The monograph consists of eleven chapters in total, divided into five parts, along with four international cases of the real estate driven financial crises.

Part I (Chapter 1) summarizes key research questions and findings from all subsequent chapters.

Part II (Chapters 2 to 4) attempts to measure effects of aging and other demographic shifts on housing prices based on innovative empirical methods. In particular, Chapter 2 tests effects of changes in shares of aged population (those who are 65 or older) in the county-level localities in Korea during the 1990s on housing returns during the 2000s by using a three-factor CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), and documents a significant negative effect of a rise of aged population on the returns; Chapter 3 quantifies levels of housing demand for different sizes (i.e., large vs. medium vs. small units) of various age and household-size cohorts, and predicts an over-supply of the very small housing units if government continues the current course of promoting that size segment; and, Chapter 4 estimates extents of co-movement among local housing prices in Korea, and reports a market stabilization effect of the loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions in mortgage lending (i.e., the more restrictive the lending control is, the smaller the extent of the price co-movement).

Part III (Chapters 5 to 7) analyzes consequences of the alternative policy instruments for stabilizing the housing market, along with policy measures to respond to real estate lending driven financial crisis. Chapter 5 measures time- and location-varying effects of the frequently changing housing tax regimes in Korea for acquiring, holding, and re-selling home on housing returns, and reports a predominantly large (and negative) impact of the capital gains tax; Chapter 6 simulates the effects of monetary policy, LTV restriction, and housing acquisition tax on private consumption and other macroeconomic variables based on a DSGE(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, and documents that the more relaxed the lending restriction, the larger the effect of change in the policy interest rate on the variables examined; Chapter 7 analyzes the extent of liquidity risk caused by the structure of consumer lending products in Korea (short maturities and non-amortizing principals in particular), and suggests to consider a two-by-two matrix in designing policy responses to a real estate driven financial crisis (i.e., ex ante vs. ex post, and permanent vs. temporary, policy responses).

Part IV (Chapters 8 to 10) discusses the rental housing markets and policies in Korea along with a set of policy recommendations to enhance program efficiency and welfare of beneficiaries. Chapter 8 investigates rental housing policies - in particular, the rent subsidy program - and argues for increasing rental housing supply to meet the rising need in the demand side, for promoting private rental housing service providers, and for assisting economic self-help of subsidy recipients; Chapter 9 analyzes consequences of different unit-based public rental housing programs, and suggests to consider a more focused (and sustained) housing safety net program for very low-income households, as well as a realignment of national government, localities, and other service providers; Chapter 10 elaborates the ways to reform the private rental housing market in Korea, the core of which is to convert the informal and non-institutionalized Chonsei system to a more stable, affordable, and institutionalized rental housing mechanism, and recommends a set of policy initiatives by using the those in Japan and other advanced economies as a benchmark.

Part V (Chapter 11) discusses policy implications of major findings from the previous chapters with respect to four particular areas: those for dealing with demographic shifts, for stabilizing housing markets, for enhancing welfare of low-income households via rental housing policies, and for developing a well-functioning rental housing market and industry. Finally, four cases of the real estate driven financial crisis written by renowned international experts are given as examples - the Swedish financial crisis in the early 1990s (by Peter Englund), the S&K crisis during 1980s in the U.S. (David Geltner), the Japanese real estate and financial crisis in the 1990s (Tsutomu Watanabe), and the recent subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. (Tyler Yang).

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발간사

제1부 서 론

제1장 연구의 논점 및 결과 요약 (조만)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 연구의 배경 및 방향
　제3절 주요 논점의 정리
　제4절 결과 요약

제2부 주택가격 및 주택시장 수급불균형

제2장 인구 고령화와 주택가격 (홍기석)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 기존 연구
　제3절 이론적 모형
　제4절 실증분석
　제5절 결 론

제3장 주택규모별 수요예측 (이창무)
　제1절 서론
　제2절 선행연구
　제3절 주택규모 분포 및 가구 변화 추세
　제4절 주택규모별 수요예측
　제5절 요약 및 정책적 함의

제4장 우리나라 부동산시장 동조화와 부동산담보비율(LTV)규제(한중호)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 부동산시장 동조화의 측정
　제3절 주택담보대출비율과 부동산가격
　제4절 분석자료 및 연구방법
　제5절 분석 결과
　제6절 결 론

제3부 주택시장 안정화 정책

제5장 주택조세가 주택투자 수익률에 미치는 영향 (손재영·박정현)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 주택 관련 조세제도
　제3절 주택조세 세 부담 추이
　제4절 주택조세가 투자수익률에 미치는 영향
　제5절 결 론

제6장 동태적확률 일반균형(DSGE)모형을 이용한 부동산시장 안정정책의 효과 분석 (송인호)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 기존 문헌 고찰
　제3절 주택시장 관련 변수의 주기와 변동성
　제4절 정책적 효과 분석을 위한 동태적확률 일반균형(DSGE)모형 설
　제5절 시뮬레이션 결과
　제6절 결어: 연구 결과 요약과 정책적 시사점

제7장 가계부채의 취약성과 위험관리방향 (김영일)
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 가계부채의 주요 현황과 취약성 평가
　제3절 가계부채의 위험관리방향 모색
　제4절 결 론